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    机构股票池·中线成长股
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年07月05日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                        该公司销售额达到近5个月来高点,去库存状况良好,而且土地获取量明显增长。公司定价精准优势逐步体现,销售均价较行业整体率先出现提升。考虑到存货减值的转回以及价格的超预期,公司盈利有望超预期。该股中期上升通道已经形成,应果断跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是国内优秀的通讯设备供应商,伴随着工业和信息化部的组建和运营商重组工作的进行,中国通信市场发展进入了一个新的阶段。未来随着国内CDMA、TD-SCDMA开标并供货、WCDMA开始招标建设,以及国际上一些重大项目陆续进入执行阶段,公司经营依然有望保持确定性的增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                        西藏天路(600326)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             百联股份(600631)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                        该公司主营公路工程和水泥销售,受益国家4万亿基建投资,经营前景回暖向好。公司通过组建西藏天路矿业公司,准备开发可能拥有200万吨的铜矿和90吨的金矿,从而使公司拥有了矿产资源主题。走势上该股在上升通道中加速运行,短调在5日均线处可吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司是百货龙头,将充分分享上海消费市场的成长。公司物业自有比例高,且大多位于上海的主副商圈,物业商业价值高。此外公司还持有大量的金融股权。2010年上海世博会以及可能立项的迪士尼项目给上海消费市场注入新的活力,同时随着宏观经济的逐步好转,公司受益最为直接。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                        中国平安(601318)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             安泰集团(600408)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                        该公司2009年保费增速优于同业,公司产品结构合理、利润率高,且代理人数量有较快增长,个险渠道保费增速不减,银保渠道在2009年有所扩张。公司在三家内地保险公司当中股权投资比重最高,在2009年的股市反弹中受益最多,中期业绩有望超预期,建议买进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司作为山西省重点支持的三大焦化龙头企业以及国家循环经济试点企业,设备技术水平处于国内先进水平。随着公司200万吨焦化技改二期工程的竣工和参股的山西汾西中泰煤业有限责任公司正常运行,公司原材料炼焦煤将会得到一定保障,产能得以进一步扩张,从而增强公司的行业地位和市场竞争力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                         公司获得甲型H1N1流感试剂测评第一彰显其研发实力和行业龙头的风范。作为国内诊断试剂龙头,强大的研发和高质量的产品是公司未来持续快速发展的坚强基石。中信证券预计公司2009-2011年EPS分别为0.57元、0.76元和0.94元,维持“买入”投资评级,目标价23元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是国内商业零售行业龙头,拥有大量优质商业资产。公司在上海市主要的70家百货店零售额中占28%的市场份额,并在市内前20强单体百货店中占40%的市场份额,同时公司也具有潜在的资产整合预期。该股主力稳轧稳打,股价维持反复震荡盘升格局。经过近期的蓄势整理后,继续调整空间有限。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                        登海种业(002041)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中海油服(601808)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                         公司玉米种子研发能力雄厚,目前有三个超试玉米品种已通过山东省审,国审预计将在7月底进行。如果国审通过,2010年超试玉米种子销售量将迅速放大。另一方面,登海先锋四期将在2009年底投产。兴业证券预计公司2009-2011年EPS分别为0.37元、0.62元和0.90元,给予推荐评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是中国近海最具规模且占主导地位的综合油田服务供应商,具有良好的客户基础,既拥有像中海油这样的核心客户,同时又拥有一批作为石油行业领先企业的重要客户,业务增长得到了可靠保障。该股为大盘蓝筹股,在市场持续反弹中呈反复震荡盘升格局。近期该股在60日均线处反复震荡拉据,此区域支撑力度显现,后市仍有望继续向上拓展空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                        利尔化学(002258)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             国恒铁路(000594)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                         公司预计2009年中期业绩同比增长40%-70%,EPS为0.42-0.52元,高于市场预期。公司上半年获得较好业绩源于公司加大了国内外市场的销售,实现了主营业务收入增长。同时大幅降低了生产成本,以及主要产品出口退税率较去年同期增长4%所致。光大证券预计公司2009、2010年EPS分别为0.94和1.21元,给予“增持”评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          公司通过对原有低效益资产的处置,收购中铁(罗定)铁路有限公司59%股权的完成,使公司的主要资产转化为铁路行业资产,主营业务逐渐转化为以铁路运输、铁路建设为基础,以房地产开发、大宗物资贸易为增长点的发展模式。该股目前已运行至震荡箱体末端,近日频频向上挑战前期箱顶,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                        点评:申巴新经济(163105)的选股思路是注重寻找经济改善、政策导向和流动性充沛情况下的投资机会。在行业配置方面,超配医药生物和机械设备,并对一些主题投资增加配置;低配金融服务、交通运输等行业。其中,医药生物近期的强劲走势折射出该基金相对独特的选股思路。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评:中银增长(163803)的选股思路有两个,一是从产业政策受益角度关注管理层的政策对行业和公司的持续影响,包括国家新能源政策、医改政策、产业振兴规划,并从这些行业的细分子行业中发掘一些龙头公司;二是从消费角度。认为中国经济转型仍然会持续进行,消费升级前景乐观,因此,继续持有并择机选择一些能够受益于这一趋势的行业与个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                         就其重仓股来说,八一钢铁的优势在于两点,一是在新疆的垄断优势,目前新疆钢铁产品价格较内地多100元至200元/吨。二是成本低,目前新疆铁精粉不含税价格约460元/吨,球团矿不含税价格约610元/吨,低于其他地区,动力煤价格相对更低,因此吨矿盈利一直较佳。而随着新疆城市化进程以及大型工程的建设,公司未来的业绩增长趋势相对确定;泸州老窖近期的优势也较为突出,一是山西汾酒的产品价格提升赋予高端白酒未来产品价格上涨契机,二是华西证券股权投资所带来的回报预期相对乐观;招商地产则是得益于房地产火爆所带来的题材刺激预期,以及公司在地产方面独特的竞争优势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         就其重仓股来说,铁龙物流的竞争优势较为突出,一是产品价格上涨,盈利能力有所提升,二是未来有望整合铁路特种运输资产,三是产能拓展。目前公司在铁路货运和临港物流方面,沙鲅线保持较好的增长趋势,这也是公司近两年的主要增长来源;中国卫星得益于我国航天事业的快速发展,以及卫星业务应用范围的拓展所带来的后续增值服务。目前该股长期滞涨,存在着补涨潜能;中信证券的优势则在于目前A股市场持续活跃,佣金收入增长。与此同时,未来金融领域的全面开放所带来的业绩快速增长的趋势,中信证券有望受益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                        点评:广发小盘(162703)的选股思路,一是选择估值相对便宜且未来业绩增长确定性较强的品种,重点关注建筑建材、房地产、中医药、工程机械、电力设备等。二是产业整合中有望胜出的企业,这其实包含了产业整合资产重组主题,也包含了产业更替过程中的新兴产业投资机会的思路。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 点评:大成价值(160901)的选股思路主要有两个,一是根据市场发展趋势选择不同风格的品种。比如说随着行情趋势的明朗化,该基金将食品饮料、医药等防御性行业置换为有色资源、地产、化工和汽车等股价明显处于底部且业绩有望复苏的强周期性进攻品种。二是根据产业发展态势,加大保险和券商等非银行金融品种的配置比重,并重点配置了太阳能和电动汽车板块。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                         就其重仓股来说,黑猫股份迎来两大业绩增长预期,一是近期随着我国汽车行业产销量迭创新高,对轮胎需求也陡增,而炭黑则是轮胎的必需原料,故行业景气有所复苏。二是产能拓展,公司日前宣布内蒙乌海两条年产4万吨炭黑的生产线,以及1.5兆瓦尾气发电项目全面投产。与此同时,有业内人士猜测,不排除公司进行业绩修正的可能性;中远航运的优势在于对航运产品价格敏感度强,经过持续的经济爬升期之后,我国经济或进入到稳定增长周期中,这对航运价格将形成较大的牵引力,故中远航运的中期趋势较为乐观;海螺水泥则在于跑马圈地过程中获得了产品价格的决定权优势,而且余热发电等也降低生产成本,故业绩增长趋势乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,煤气化目前主营业务为焦炭与煤炭,其中焦炭行业目前受钢铁产能利用率提升而持续增长,盈利能力有所复苏。而煤炭则由于需求旺盛,产品价格一直相对强劲。同时市场较为看好公司未来的煤炭产能扩张,一是日前公告的拟收购的两处矿井储量分别为1871万吨和1594万吨,二是龙泉项目,这些均构成了公司未来的业绩增长点;潍柴动力的优势则在于公司与经济周期密切相关,随着经济增长公司产销两旺,业绩增长势头强劲;浦发银行的优势则在于上海将打造全球金融中心,公司有望获得更高的产业政策倾斜预期,目前估值相对较低,增长前景乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

    申银万国     万科A(000002)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中兴通讯(000063)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            森洋投资
         策略:以基金为首的机构投资者近来大举翻多,偏好一致情况下金融、地产和资源类股受到一再追捧。建议顺应形势,果断配置这类品种。不必担心短期技术超买因素,毕竟就中线而言这类蓝筹品种仍处历史相对低位。     策略:短期内A股市场并不会脱离外围市场而出现根本性改变,外围市场的表现仍会在未来加大对A股市场的考验。建议投资者谨慎操作,部分个股和板块短期拉升过急回抽风险加大,适当关注近期调整较为充分和估值相对较低的板块及个股。
    证券通     科华生物(002022)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          百联股份(600631)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            九鼎德盛
         策略:国信证券认为,下半年重要的投资线索包括:油价上涨、铁路体系改革预期升温下的铁路产业链、创业板推出与新能源政策出台助推创新主题概念(看好新动力汽车产业链)、股市繁荣下的并购重组主题投资。     策略:市场在持续上行突破3000点大关后盘中震荡加剧难免,操作上,投资者应避免一味追涨,对调整充分的个股可继续耐心持有,而对短线连续拉升的个股可考虑逢高逐步减仓。在半年报披露之际,不妨密切关注有业绩支撑的品种。
    申巴新经济     申巴新经济股票池:(600581)八一钢铁、(000568)泸州老窖 (000024)招商地产。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              中银增长股票池:(600125)铁龙物流、(600118)中国卫星、(600030)中信证券。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 中银增长
         策略:该基金认为未来三个季度中国GDP增速环比会持续上升,下阶段应重点关注国内外宏观数据缓慢复苏和回暖背景下的受益行业;流动性充沛情况下关注周期性行业;主题类的投资机会包括新能源、区域经济等。     策略:该基金整体兼顾进攻和防御,提高了权益投资比重,适当增加了具有进攻性的品种,如资源类行业的配置。认为就中国经济持续增长而言,新能源无疑是具有战略意义的行业,因此也选择性地增加了配置,但总体行业格局变化不大。
    广发小盘     广发小盘股票池:(002068)黑猫股份、(600428)中远航运、(600585)海螺水泥。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              大成价值股票池:(000968)煤气化 (000338)潍柴动力、(600000)浦发银行。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     大成价值
         策略:该基金认为政府采取的一系列刺激经济政策已经开始显现成效,从而也改变了市场预期,投资者信心增强。故对股票仓位没有进行大的调整,重点放在投资组合的结构调整上,对估值相对便宜且未来业绩确定性强的行业及公司进行增持。     策略:该基金重点关注基本面正在逐步复苏或者改善的非银行金融、地产、有色资源、煤炭、汽车和机械等周期性行业。在严格控制风险基础上以提升绝对收益为目的,适度把握区域振兴、第三代移动通信和军工等主题投资和行业板块轮动机会。