以时间换空间 震荡构筑新平衡

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         对未来趋势判断，我们认为，临近年底又到了以往每年都出现的机构结账行情，因此年内不宜盲目乐观再去期待创新高行情。而随着政策预期的逐步明朗以及获利盘的快速回吐，上证指数在3000点附近的支撑将逐渐体现出来。大盘虽然快速调整，但还未改变自2639点以来的上升通道，未来一周上证指数有望维持3000-3200点区域震荡。我们认为年底调整更有利于明年年初行情的展开。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        鉴于对本周市场触底反弹和中线继续向好的判断，建议投资者不要过分恐慌性杀跌。个股方面，适量减持前期涨幅较大个股，部分资金可考虑向2009年涨幅不大的板块尤其是大盘蓝筹股过渡。重点关注消费类板块（商业零售、食品饮料、旅游、金融）和新能源（智能电网）。本期推荐个股为友谊股份、中青旅、宝新能源、荣信股份、中国石化。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         估值水平和业绩表现对比、资金结构、投资者情绪变化是推动市场风格发生转化的内在原因。观察历史表现，在大盘股相对于小盘股有较大低估空间、机构资金较为充裕、投资者热情高涨之时，大盘股往往会有超额收益。目前大盘股在业绩和估值方面已经具备优势，但是资金面压力和投资者情绪尚不足以支撑大盘股崛起，短期热点仍然会集中在中小盘股上。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             基于宏观经济复苏趋势确立、货币活化趋势延续以及明年刺激政策连续性的预期，我们仍然维持A股震荡向上、跨年度行情的判断。短期市场正处于风格切换的阵痛期，预计未来1-2周股指震荡整理的可能性较大，我们将密切关注金融创新方面的动态。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    从防御角度布局蓝筹板块，适当关注低碳行业的主题性机会。本周我们重点关注：金风科技、东方电气、长江电力、招商证券、万好万家。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         随着融资融券、股指期货进程的加快，这将成为点燃权重股启动的导火索。策略上，建议减持纯题材类或预期已兑现的小盘股，先降低仓位，再在震荡调整中逢低审慎买入中大盘股票。行业配置上，我们维持对钢铁、建材、化工、金融等行业的推荐。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         总体来看，上周两市在前期高点附近放量调整，但由于国内市场基本面及流动性继续向好，不支持股市继续大幅走低。随着市场做多信心逐步提升，后市上证综指继续震荡上扬的可能性较大。建议投资者可逢低关注通胀预期下、基本面比较确定、近期涨幅较小的蓝筹股的中期投资机会，主要关注银行、地产、保险、券商以及有色金属等大类品种。另外建议继续关注商贸零售、食品饮料、医药、电力等防御类品种的阶段性投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         我国经济将进入复苏佳期，而经济复苏初期宽松政策性质还不会改变，货币政策决定的流动性虽不能继续成为市场主要驱动力量，但资金紧缩局面还不会形成。目前的调整仍属技术面范畴，跌幅不会太大，沪综指3000点附近有很强支撑。当然市场调整时间虽不会太长，但年末可能维持强势震荡格局，以实现风格转换。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                中央经济工作会议或将产生市场结构性变化，扩大内需、扶持农业、继续推进节能减排以及加快医疗体制改革仍将成为重点议题。从历史角度看，相关板块在中央工作会议后1-3个月亦有明显超额收益，建议重点关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 目前处于复苏向扩张转变的过渡期，出于对政策退出和经济扩张强度的不确定性，市场波动会大幅增加，因此市场通常表现为震荡向上的“慢牛”特征。行业配置方面建议也不变，依然建议配置上游（煤炭）和下游消费品。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             A股市场结构性估值差异巨大，建议关注未来估值确定性增长的行业和上市公司，如内需性行业存在较高的溢价空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             本周行业配置上建议从估值和未来景气判断仍具有较好性价比的消费板块：医药、旅游、家电及商业板块。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 我们认为在对PMI数据的良好预期以及政治局工作会议为经济政策定调影响下，本周市场有望企稳回升。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         基于基本面改善趋势及当前的估值水平，我们依然看好从现在到明年一季度的中期走势，建议投资者对前期涨幅相对较小、基本面改善态势明确的板块进行配置，主要包括消费中的零售及白酒板块，以及周期性板块中的地产、钢铁、煤炭等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     本周组合只保留吉林森工、大厦股份、西藏旅游，另外调进东方园林、现代投资、思源电气、神州泰岳、洋河股份这些具有高送转预期的个股，还调进受益于天然气涨价的华鲁恒升，整体仓位调整到70%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就本周而言，随着中央政治局会议基调以及对中央经济工作会议方针的进一步明确，市场将在一定的观望氛围中保持上攻行情。建议投资者继续关注三个方面：一是大盘蓝筹股，对经济政策的敏感性比较强，27日政治局会议将利于蓝筹股企稳回升，尤其是金融板块。二是业绩弹性较大的公司，由于上周呈现普跌格局，很多业绩增长稳定的公司被错杀，本周或将复活。三是消费板块，这不仅是近期经济工作会议可能带动的热点，也将成为明年拉动经济增长的一个重点，建议投资者继续关注地产、汽车、家电、商业消费、食品饮料等行业。（编辑 姚炯）

国元证券看 平	东北证券看 平	湘财证券看 多	银河证券看 平	兴业证券看 平 就市场本身而言，不同的时候总会有不同的多空之声，看待市场我们仍然要看清主要矛盾和次要矛盾，从而作为决策依据。首先，对于货币政策转向问题，就明年而言，保持政策延续性基础上，在适当的时机货币政策发生符合经济发展状况的调整也是符合预期之事。其次，对于银行股的再融资问题，在目前的资本充足率监管标准下，大银行的资本均很充足，现阶段融资压力并不大。第三，资产泡沫值得担忧，但A股市场更多的是结构性泡沫，而非整体性。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         我们认为资本市场更关注信贷政策的变化。我们认为，明年扩张性政策必然面临退出选择，不过在政策工具的选择上更倾向于公开市场操作、准备金率这类数量工具，加息将较为谨慎。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         我们认为，上周市场出现较大幅度下调主要有以下几个方面的因素：1、两市都处于前期高点，技术性阻力较强；2、银行股有扩容压力；3、境外市场出现较大幅度回调；4、面临年关，资金处于年度结算期。这四个原因中第一个因素起主导作用，其他因素加重了技术调整力度，造成市场过度抛售。我们认为，中线向好趋势并未改变，不排除沪指年底前再度挑战3400点的可能性，跨年度行情仍值得期待。本周波动区间为3020-3200点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             在获利盘回吐、宏观调控紧缩预期、银行股再融资传言和迪拜危机引起的国际市场动荡等负面因素冲击下，上周A股大幅下挫。目前市场估值水平处于合理区间，在没有经济基本面和流动性方面突发性重大因素刺激下，业绩增长与估值水平将制约股指下跌空间。但在中央经济工作会议召开之前，市场对政策的担心仍然存在，短期市场还将呈现震荡格局，待宏观政策调控思路进一步明朗后市场有望再现升势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        迪拜债务危机属于经济再平衡中的插曲，化解可能性较大，不改经济复苏趋势；政府很可能提出类似于“双稳”这样的基本方针，即一方面既要稳定经济增长的速度，同时也要稳定物价指数，防止其过快回升，至少明年上半年维持适度宽松的货币政策可能性较大。      由于11月24日单日沪市成交接近3000亿，显示了资金对于后市的分歧，因此决定了股指消化分歧需要以时间来换取。而银行股经过压力释放后并不具备继续深幅调整的条件，导致股指下调空间有限，市场选择以时间换取空间方式来完成震荡筑底寻求支撑的可能性较大。技术形态看，3050点上方具有强支撑。
光大证券看 空	中原证券看 多	民生证券看 平	东方证券 看 空	招商证券看 多 从外围环境看，政府投资机构迪拜世界集团宣布暂停偿还债务，A股在一定程度上受到负面影响。不过我们认为，金融危机最困难的时期已经过去，外围市场动荡不会对A股市场产生实质性影响；短期供求关系看，三季度央企持有的重仓股市值超过了600亿元，央企年底结账回笼资金对短期A股市场走势形成压力。另外，有保险公司自上周起赎回基金、降低股票仓位合计规模约100亿元。从扩容角度看，随着市场转暖，IPO节奏出现加快迹象，对短期市场信心会产生一定压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         我们认为，关于紧缩流动性问题，中央已经反复强调保持刺激政策的连贯性，至少在明年二季度之前都不用过度担忧流动性紧缩问题。关于迪拜金融危机影响范围则相对有限，只要各方积极应对，相信不会出现第二波金融危机。而关于国有银行巨额再融资问题，相信管理层一定会综合考虑、稳健应对，对于股票市场的实质影响可能会大大减弱。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            上证指数出现宽幅震荡，主要原因有三：其一，对政策担忧，包括货币政策、房地产政策等，其直接制约金融、地产等主流板块表现；其二，对投资担忧。虽说投资高位回落是合理的，但我国无论是宏观经济还是上市公司经营都对投资非常敏感，从而制约了周期性股票的表现；其三，对市场担忧，主要来自技术面。市场前期连续上涨，但主要靠热点题材轮动，没有主流板块支持。尽管存在这些制约因素，我们还是看好今后“高增长、低通胀”环境下的证券市场。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    受流动性以及市场预期转变影响，A股市场短期趋势或存一定不确定性。一方面，本周二公布的PMI指数可能会成为市场趋势转变的关键时点：如果PMI指数低于市场预期，将有可能对市场造成不利影响；另一方面，全球热钱回流与市场预期以及美元之间存在负反馈循环，可能会放大对于A股市场的不利影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 迪拜事件总体上对世界金融系统的冲击很有限，对中国实体经济的影响则更小；此前传言银监会提高银行资本充足率计划引起市场调整，然而刚召开的政治局会议又传达了继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的信号。我们认为，中央政治局会议内容更大程度上代表了中长期内政策导向，而银监会的政策措施则更多属于技术性层面和短期影响；促成明年经济有望由复苏进入扩张的动力来自于内需复苏后的扩散效应和外需增速的明显上升。如果积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策维持不变，经济扩张力度可能更强。      总体看，我们认为，由于受内外突发和季节性因素冲击影响，市场短期做空动能仍有消化过程，半年线及3000点附近的反复争夺仍有可能出现。但在政策面、企业盈利增长、资金供给等影响市场中期走势的因素没有出现实质性改变情况下，短期技术调整只是改变了市场上升节奏和速率。
国信证券看 多	东海证券看 多	中金公司 看 平	国泰君安看 多	中信建投看 多 从历史规律来看，市场持续性调整分为两种：一、长周期调整必然来自于宏观经济领先指标持续恶化；二、中周期调整必然来自于行业层面持续性恶化或资金层面持续性恶化。目前我们并未发现以上迹象出现：宏观经济指标仍在V型复苏中、主要周期类价格仍然处于向上趋势、热钱仍在源源不断流入，因此，我们断定此次调整仅是短期阶段调整。市场调整的原因来自于两个层面：一是市场风格面临切换，二是外围风险的冲击。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    我们认为，一方面市场大幅下挫已经部分消化了负面预期，另一方面本周基本面、政策面、技术面上均存在正面支撑因素。基本面上，周二将公布PMI数据，我们对这一数据的预期较为乐观，认为这将对股指构成支撑；政策面上，上周五召开的政治局会议强调保持宏观经济政策的连续性和稳定性，继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，促进消费需求，保持投资合理增长。我们认为政治局会议为明年的经济政策提前确定了基调，同时我们注意到政府并不急于退出经济刺激政策，也没有提到通胀预期问题，这无疑缓解了近期对于政策不确定性的担忧；技术面上，上周五下跌时成交量已回落至正常水平，反映空方能量已不足，上证指数半年线3046点、10周线3036点均为有力支撑点位。                                                                                                                     上周市场受海外市场波动及国内政策不确定性影响大幅下挫，波动加大。往前看，我们认为市场目前的点位有基本面支持，进一步下行风险不大，且在周五美国市场对迪拜债务问题反应有限影响下周一市场出现一定反弹。但由于流动性方面存在持续的担心，且外围不确定性还未完全消除，在市场做多意愿不足情况下基金仓位有进一步下调空间。这可能使得短期市场难以进入快速上升通道，市场盘整格局可能还将持续一段时间。我们认为中央经济工作会议政策的明确以及海外市场的稳定将是市场再入上升通道的前提。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    上周市场通过急剧大幅调整部分释放了风险。对中央经济工作会议宏观政策不确定性的担忧使得大盘蓝筹股上攻动力不足，中行千亿融资门事件和迪拜危机所引发的对全球金融市场不稳定性担忧使得全球资本市场集体回落。从今年行情演绎的路线图来看，在市场寻找新的主流行情时，市场通常需要通过大幅调整来完成。而从技术角度来看，领先指标在11月初和11月中旬曾与大盘出现两次背离，这种情况只在7月份出现过，随后大盘就出现了8月份的暴跌。目前超买超卖指标处于超卖区域，市场短线有一定的反弹要求，但市场整体震荡趋势并没改变。                                                                                                                                                                                                                         A股近期暴跌有多重原因：一是前期涨幅较大，自身具有内在调整压力；二是随着中央工作会议临近，市场对政策预期发生一定的改变；三是权重板块缺乏上涨动力，甚至有利空传言出现；四是外部环境复杂。      从最坏的角度考虑，如果迪拜事件造成欧洲经济二次探底，并带动美国乃至全球经济出现二次衰退，则A股市场可能出现中级调整，但出现熊市概率仍极低。主要的原因在于中国自身的内需消费已经明显回升，同时迪拜事件所显现出的外围经济复苏仍未完全明朗的现实将进一步促使中国政府实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。