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      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
    朝阳永续:研究显示目标涨幅巨大品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年12月13日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     公司是中西部特种水泥生产龙头企业之一,中俄输油管建设、大型储油库项目等都对其产品有较高需求。虽然在11月中旬,公司作出澄清三个月内暂无具体动作,但也承认大股东在洽谈相关事宜,走势上该股中期向上稳健,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是全国产能较大的白酒企业,经济规模和效益在白酒行业的排名居前。公司倡导生态酿酒、生态经营、生态消费,成功创建我国第一座酿酒工业生态园。白酒业具有较强的风险抵御力,是市场估值不断提升背景下的重点投资品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                伊力特(600197)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            双良股份(600481)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     公司是西部最大的白酒生产企业,伊力牌白酒系列产品在国内具有一定知名度,报表显示毛利率高达49.32%,盈利能力强。公司还涉足煤化工、电池碳酸锂等,主题催化剂丰富。走势上看,短线该股回调已企稳,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是亚太地区最大的中央空调生产基地,双良品牌为国内中央空调著名品牌,主导产品全部拥有自主知识产权。公司是溴化锂制冷机国家标准的制定者,是科技部国家火炬计划重点高新技术企业,国内最大的溴化锂制冷机制造商之一。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                金山开发(600679)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         紫光古汉(000590)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     公司是金山区国资委属下唯一上市公司,目前已成功转型房地产开发、并涉足物流运输业。受益于整个上海国资整合大局,包括在上海建立金融中心和航运中心的政策大背景下,公司基本面改善预期良好。目前该股中期上攻形态,调整到10日均线附近可择机吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司是湖南最大的中、西、生化联合制药企业、全国中成药工业重点企业五十强和全国最大输液生产企业之一,是目前国内最大的西药制剂生产企业,中南地区最大的血液制品生产企业。公司主要致力于研究、开发中国中药传统秘方等,产品销售海内外。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                目前已进入白酒消费旺季,考虑到白酒消费税调整、产品供求状况以及终端销售价格因素,公司高端白酒有提价动力,而公司低端白酒今年也放量增长,预计2009年收入有望接近12亿元,销量同比增长40%,今年业绩有望翻番,维持 增持投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是我国最大的贵金属深加工企业,长期服务于国防军工建设,多年来为我国多项高新工程提供了300多个品种、上千种规格的产品,其中有近20种材料被应用于神舟六号的关键部位。目前公司发展前景较为广阔,建议逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                葛洲坝(600068)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            紫金矿业(601899)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司业务格局是三大主业、七大板块,涉及面广,利润来源多,在公司2009年大约税前15个亿的利润中,水泥制造贡献2亿元,民爆贡献3亿元,国际业务贡献3亿元,公司这种业务既分散了风险,近期该股存在交易性机会,应该享受高估值。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是以黄金为主导产业,集矿产资源勘探、开采和冶炼为一体的综合性矿业生产商,拥有的丰富的金、铜、锌等有色金属矿产资源,拥有一定的成本优势。该股短线震荡上扬,预计后市有望继续上攻,可逢低适当关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                康美药业(600518)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         兰州黄河(000929)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司中药饮片新增产能明年逐步释放,而为解决产能瓶颈,2010年下半年将进一步切入北京和福建医院市场,另外,公司将康美医院投资规模由3亿元调整为6亿元,医院业务将是公司未来的重要利润增长点,维持公司买入投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司打造了黄河这一全国驰名品牌,形成了有较强影响力的区域品牌。公司近年对天水、酒泉和青海三家啤酒公司增资扩股后,年啤酒产能扩大7万千升。目前该股不时的量能放大与震荡,显示主力机构仍在其中,考虑到其区域龙头地位,可逢低积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:信达领先(166101)的选股思路主要是两点:一是从经济增长的基础行业中寻找龙头品种,比如说近年来的经济增长引擎的汽车、地产股就成为该基金的重仓股。同时,积极跟踪银行等受益于经济增长的品种;二是对消费品情有独钟,家电、白酒等品种一直是该基金的重仓股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    点评:广发聚丰(162705)的选股思路是以内需主导的产业为投资重点,且内需产业也关注着消费升级以及对经济增长具有重要影响的产业或者行业龙头品种,存在着一定的自上而下的选股策略特征。与此同时,公司也关注周期性行业盈利变化带来的投资机会,因为在经济强劲复苏的过程中,周期性行业的业绩弹性大,也有望带来投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就其重仓股来说,海马股份前景不错,因为目前我国汽车销售前景较为乐观,而公司主导产品正好切合行业发展的脉络,故近年来的业绩一直保持着相对乐观的发展趋势,受此影响,该股在近期明显有资金介入,日K线图渐有加速的趋势。而贵州茅台在本周提价再一次佐证了公司产品不可复制所获得的定价能力,也再一次向市场表述了公司有望维持着稳定增长的发展趋势,可跟踪。而格力电器主要在于产能的扩张以及市场容量的持续拓展,未来业绩仍有望保持着快速稳定的增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             就其重仓股来说,云维股份控股的大为制焦、大为焦化分别拥有200、105万吨焦炭产能,此外,大为焦化拥有10万吨甲醇装置,公司业绩弹性很大,未来成长性相对乐观,可跟踪。而兰花科创主要有两块业务:一是煤制尿素,二是煤炭,其中煤炭产能有所扩张,未来可能会进一步的资本运作的趋势,目前股价有一定引力。而浦发银行则在于每股对应的贷款数目较多,是目前银行股中对息差最敏感的行业之一,一旦加息,公司业绩弹性最大,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:鹏华动力(160610)的选股思路主要有两个:一是从资产价格变化的角度,主要是因为美元贬值及全球通胀预期,必然会使得大宗商品价格出现涨升的趋势,这对资源股及地产股等品种有着较大的推动力;二是精选那些估值洼地效应明显且未来有明显业绩增长点的个股进行长线投资,以化解短线股价波动的压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    点评:招商成长(161706)的选股思路是着重服务型公司,其中金融、酒店、商场等服务行业的公司成为公司重点关注的对象,主要是因为这些服务型公司将得益于居民收入增长所带来的消费升级的推动力。与此同时,对经济复苏推动下,业绩大幅弹升的周期性品种也予以关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                就其重仓股来说,葛洲坝主业包括建筑施工、水泥制造、民爆、高速公路、金融、煤炭、水力发电七个板块,2009年新签建筑施工订单在400亿元以上,毛利率达到43%左右,目前估值低,可积极跟踪。而北京城建目前的地产储备主要在北京,北京又是我国目前房地产的一线城市,发展空间较大。国电电力则在于目前估值优势,且产业链渐趋完善,尤其是煤炭以及下游煤化工业务的拓展。与此同时,公司大渡河水电投资即将进入回报期,未来的业绩增长趋势乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            就其重仓股来说,星湖科技的主导产品呈味核苷酸价格中期将保持高位运行,而苏氨酸饲料添加剂将成为公司另一个利润贡献点,而高精铝板带项目及房地产业务在2011年以后也将成为新的重要利润贡献来源。因此,公司未来的成长趋势相对乐观。国药股份则在于成为大股东产业整合的平台,外延式增长的动能相对充沛,且经过近期整合,协同效应有所显现,利润释放的空间有所乐观。中国联通则在于3G时代,公司有一定的领先优势,故利润成长动能相对乐观,目前估值具有一定优势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

    申银万国     狮头股份(600539)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     沱牌曲酒(600702)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        森洋投资
         策略:年末市场指数重心大致保持平稳,但个股趋于活跃,重组、消费、二三线房地产开发等品种表现强势,可重点关注其中形态配合良好、催化剂明确的个股,如水泥建材、酒类及上海本地股。     策略:沪指本周下跌逾2%,由于当前行情量能萎缩,市场观望情绪日渐浓重,大盘短期处于上下两难境地,但在政策偏暖背景下,市场上行可能性较大,建议投资者关注受益通胀的行业和个股。
    证券通     泸州老窖(000568)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  贵研铂业(600459)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        九鼎德盛
         策略:随着中央经济工作会议政策基调的确立及后续相关行业政策导向的尘埃落定,市场不确定性会逐步消除,大盘蓝筹股的配置价值逐步体现,未来1个月正是战术性布局大盘蓝筹股的大好时机。     策略:本周深沪大盘收周阴线,且后半周交投出现清淡迹象,考虑到新股扩容和高PE发行及上市形成泡沫因素,关注13日线得失,若破位则应小心调整加深;反之则可谨慎乐观,操作上逢低关注。
    信达领先     海马股份(000572)、贵州茅台(600519)、格力电器(000651)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          云维股份(600725)、兰花科创(600123)、浦发银行(600000)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                广发聚丰
         策略:该基金认为当前沪深300指数的预测市盈率为21倍,按2010年的预测,市盈率为17倍左右。由于经济回升趋势明确,且市场估值支持较强,股票资产值得超配,看好银行、消费类制造业等。     策略:该基金对持仓结构进行较大优化,投资重点转向内需主导行业,减持了有色、钢铁行业,而且还降低了估值过高的房地产行业的配置力度,加大了对食品饮料、零售、医药等内需型行业配置。
    鹏华动力     葛洲坝(600068)、北京城建(600266)、国电电力(600795)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              星湖科技(600866)、国药股份(600511)、中国联通(600050)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                招商成长
         策略:该基金认为目前A股估值合理,A股与H股溢价处于历史低位,故中长期市场仍存在较好机会,国内资产价格存在泡沫化趋势,继续关注金融、地产、煤炭等受益于资产价格泡沫化的板块。     策略:该基金认为,支撑A股市场的基本面因素仍在,经济复苏趋势明显,尽管货币政策可能微调,但市场流动性充足状况不会发生根本性的变化,操作上采取积极主动的投资策略,保持较高的仓位。