5公司打新股大幅获益
[□天相投顾 吴畏] 2006-11-29 00:00

 



  □天相投顾 吴畏

  

  随着今年IPO的重启,已经有越来越多的机构投资者积极参与新股的申购,这是由于目前的新股申购将会给市场参与者带来几乎是零风险的收益,因此IPO的重启为资产的保值增值提供了良好的途径。

  那么今年重启IPO以来,有哪些上市公司能够通过申购新股获取安全的投资回报呢?这项投资对它们的每股收益会有多大的影响呢?沿着这个思路,我们根据新股上市公告书中前十大股东名单统计了上市公司参与新股申购的情况。统计中,我们假设已经解禁的股份按照实际解禁日收盘价计算,其中,中信证券及其控参股券商由于其持有股份中可能既包括网下申购部分,又包括网上申购部分,我们为了方便计算将其限售时间统一为3个月,有限售条件尚未解禁的股份按照11月27日收盘价计算。

  统计结果发现,S王府井、海越股份、九龙山、S宣工、外运发展五家上市公司会因为申购新股而使每股收益大幅增加。其中,按照北辰实业27日收盘价计算,S王府井因投资北辰实业可使每股收益增加超过1.3元,考虑到未来几年奥运会的举办对北辰实业的正面影响,预计一年之后北辰实业的股价较目前至少不会出现大幅调整,S王府井会因此获利丰厚。

  我们观察发现,非券商类的上市公司持有的股份大部分属于战略投资者配售部分,锁定期多数超过一年,比如S王府井作为战略投资者持有北辰实业的1.5亿股锁定期为12个月,S宣工持有中工国际的662万股限售期为36个月,对于这些持股锁定期长的公司到期减持情况,我们还将继续跟踪。中信证券持有的股份(包括通过中信万通证券和中信建投证券间接持股,目前这两家控股公司均属于合并报表范围)锁定期一般小于等于3个月,锁定时间较短,这部分投资收益可能会在年报中有所体现,考虑中信证券持有中信万通和中信建投的股权比例之后,我们计算出中信证券参与新股申购可能使每股收益增加0.055元。

  海越股份同样持有北辰实业股份,按照前面条件测算,解禁卖出后可使每股收益增加0.88元,今年三季度海越股份的每股收益仅为0.19元,如果明年将这部分股份卖出将使公司收益大幅增长。九龙山持有的景兴纸业6150万股为发起人股,我们估计这部分股权到期全部变现的可能性较小,但九龙山每年可以从中获得稳定的分红收益。

  另外我们需要指出,由于这种投资收益一般不具有可持续性,因此我们在择股时一定要结合公司主营业务的发展潜力,建议对S王府井、S 宣工、中信证券、国电电力重点关注。

  上市公司申购新股获利统计

代码     名称        上市日期                 股东名称                                持股数(股)     收益上市公司持股数(考虑中信证券通过持有控参股券商股权间接持有的新股数量)    持股比例(%)    受益上市公司简称    受益上市公司代码    网下申购部分预计上市日    网下申购部分上市日获利(万元)    网下申购部分上市日获利(万元)(考虑中信证券持有控股公司股权比例后)    每股收益增加(考虑中信证券的控参股券商申购新股因素)

                     (首发)[最新]                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

002051    中工国际    2006-6-19                 河北宣化工程机械股份有限公司            6,620,000     6,620,000                                                                     3.48             S 宣 工            000923             2009-6-19                 5,296.00                         5,296.00                                                                0.3210

002051    中工国际    2006-6-19                 中信证券                                950,873        950,873                                                                     0.50             中信证券            600030             2006-9-19                 683.68                            683.68                                                                 0.002

002053    云南盐化    2006-6-27                 中信证券                                918,417        918,417                                                                     0.49             中信证券            600030             2006-9-27                 503.29                            503.29                                                                 0.002

002053    云南盐化    2006-6-27                 中信建投证券                            496,500        297,900                                                                     0.27             中信证券            600030             2006-9-27                 272.08                            163.25                                                                 0.001

002056    横店东磁    2006-8-2                 中信证券                                1,321,019     1,321,019                                                                     0.73             中信证券            600030             2006-11-2                 972.27                            972.27                                                                 0.003

002056    横店东磁    2006-8-2                 中信建投证券                            428,500        257,100                                                                     0.24             中信证券            600030             2006-11-2                 315.38                            189.23                                                                 0.001

002057    中钢天源    2006-8-2                 中信证券                                530,741        530,741                                                                     0.76             中信证券            600030             2006-11-2                 245.73                            245.73                                                                 0.001

002057    中钢天源    2006-8-2                 中信建投证券                            368,500        221,100                                                                     0.53             中信证券            600030             2006-11-2                 170.62                            102.37                                                                 0.000

002058    威 尔 泰    2006-8-2                 上海紫江企业集团股份有限公司            9,764,800     9,764,800                                                                     15.66            紫江企业            600210             2009-8-2                 3,778.98                         3,778.98                                                                0.0263

002059    世博股份    2006-8-10                 中信证券                                1,188,410     1,188,410                                                                     0.55             中信证券            600030             2006-11-10                400.49                            400.49                                                                 0.001

002059    世博股份    2006-8-10                 中信建投证券                            3,685         2,211                                                                         0.17             中信证券            600030             2006-11-10                1.24                             0.75                                                                    0.000

002059    世博股份    2006-8-10                 中信万通证券                            212,410        167,039                                                                     0.10             中信证券            600030             2006-11-10                71.58                             56.29                                                                 0.000

002060    粤 水 电    2006-8-10                 广东梅雁企业(集团)股份有限公司        16,940,000     16,940,000                                                                    7.70             梅雁水电            600868             2007-8-10                 2,608.76                         2,608.76                                                                0.0137

002060    粤 水 电    2006-8-10                 中信证券                                2,179,445     2,179,445                                                                     0.99             中信证券            600030             2006-11-10                366.15                            366.15                                                                 0.001

002060    粤 水 电    2006-8-10                 中信建投证券                            475,000        285,000                                                                     0.22             中信证券            600030             2006-11-10                79.80                             47.88                                                                 0.000

002062    宏润建设    2006-8-16                 中信证券                                554,111        554,111                                                                     0.50             中信证券            600030             2006-11-16                172.33                            172.33                                                                 0.001

601111    中国国航    2006-8-18                 中外运空运发展股份有限公司             80,000,000     80,000,000                                                                    0.72             外运发展            600270             2008-1-18                 12,960.00                         12,960.00                                                             0.1431

002063    远光软件    2006-8-23                 国电电力发展股份有限公司                16,464,000     16,464,000                                                                    14.99            国电电力            600795             2007-8-23                 12,479.71                         12,479.71                                                             0.0512

002063    远光软件    2006-8-23                 中信证券                                431,327        431,327                                                                     0.39             中信证券            600030             2006-11-23                332.12                            332.12                                                                 0.001

002063    远光软件    2006-8-23                 中信建投证券                            201,000        120,600                                                                     0.18             中信证券            600030             2006-11-23                154.77                            92.86                                                                 0.000

002065    东华合创    2006-8-23                 中信证券                                434,711        434,711                                                                     0.50             中信证券            600030             2006-11-23                538.17                            538.17                                                                 0.002

002066    瑞泰科技    2006-8-23                 中信证券                                302,309        302,309                                                                     0.50             中信证券            600030             2006-11-23                190.15                            190.15                                                                 0.001

002066    瑞泰科技    2006-8-23                 中信建投证券                            89,000         53,400                                                                        0.15             中信证券            600030             2006-11-23                55.98                             33.59                                                                 0.000

002067    景兴纸业    2006-9-15                 上海茉织华股份有限公司                 61,500,000     61,500,000                                                                    26.74            九龙山             600555             2009-9-15                 14,575.50                         14,575.50                                                             0.3355

002067    景兴纸业    2006-9-15                 中信证券                                1,300,000     1,300,000                                                                     0.57             中信证券            600030             2006-12-15                308.10                            308.10                                                                 0.001

002068    黑猫股份    2006-9-15                 中信证券                                292,055        292,055                                                                     0.33             中信证券            600030             2006-12-15                166.47                            166.47                                                                 0.001

601699    潞安环能    2006-9-22                 中信证券                                2,621,000     2,621,000                                                                     0.41             中信证券            600030             2006-12-22                770.57                            770.57                                                                 0.003

601699    潞安环能    2006-9-22                 中信建投证券                            865,000        519,000                                                                     0.14             中信证券            600030             2006-12-22                254.31                            152.59                                                                 0.001

002069    獐 子 岛    2006-9-28                 中信证券                                561,688        561,688                                                                     0.50             中信证券            600030             2006-12-28                2,092.29                         2,092.29                                                                0.007

002069    獐 子 岛    2006-9-28                 中信建投证券                            156,500        93,900                                                                        0.14             中信证券            600030             2006-12-28                582.96                            349.78                                                                 0.001

002070    众和股份    2006-10-12                中信证券                                383,328        383,328                                                                     0.35             中信证券            600030             2007-1-12                 195.11                            195.11                                                                 0.001

002070    众和股份    2006-10-12                中信建投证券                            289,500        173,700                                                                     0.27             中信证券            600030             2007-1-12                 147.36                            88.41                                                                 0.000

002071    江苏宏宝    2006-10-12                中信证券                                750,000        750,000                                                                     0.61             中信证券            600030             2007-1-12                 258.75                            258.75                                                                 0.001

601588    北辰实业    2006-10-16                北京王府井百货(集团)                 150,000,000    150,000,000                                                                 4.45             S王府井             600859             2007-10-16                52,500.00                         52,500.00                                                             1.3360

                                                股份有限公司                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

601588    北辰实业    2006-10-16                浙江海越股份有限公司                    50,027,000     50,027,000                                                                    1.49             海越股份            600387             2007-10-16                17,509.45                         17,509.45                                                             0.8843

600017    日照港     2006-10-17                中信证券                                4,601,679     4,601,679                                                                     0.73             中信证券            600030             2007-1-17                 1,067.59                         1,067.59                                                                0.004

600017    日照港     2006-10-17                中信建投证券                            1,862,000     1,117,200                                                                     0.30             中信证券            600030             2007-1-17                 431.98                            259.19                                                                 0.001

002072    德棉股份    2006-10-18                中信证券                                821,094        821,094                                                                     0.51             中信证券            600030             2007-1-18                 162.58                            162.58                                                                 0.001

002072    德棉股份    2006-10-18                中信建投证券                            771,500        462,900                                                                     0.48             中信证券            600030             2007-1-18                 152.76                            91.65                                                                 0.000

002074    东源电器    2006-10-18                中信证券                                159,423        159,423                                                                     0.23             中信证券            600030             2007-1-18                 108.41                            108.41                                                                 0.000

002075    高新张铜    2006-10-25                中信证券                                1,484,878     1,484,878                                                                     0.01             中信证券            600030             2007-1-25                 764.71                            764.71                                                                 0.003

002075    高新张铜    2006-10-25                中信万通证券                            382,378        300,702                                                                     0.19             中信证券            600030             2007-1-25                 196.92                            154.86                                                                 0.001

002076    雪 莱 特    2006-10-25                中信证券                                477,558        477,558                                                                     0.47             中信证券            600030             2007-1-25                 513.37                            513.37                                                                 0.002

002077    大港股份    2006-11-16                中信证券                                667,151        667,151                                                                     0.37             中信证券            600030             2007-2-16                 247.51                            247.51                                                                 0.001

002078    太阳纸业    2006-11-16                中信证券                                1,526,500     1,526,500                                                                     0.55             中信证券            600030             2007-2-16                 555.65                            555.65                                                                 0.002

002079    苏州固锝    2006-11-16                中信证券                                387,560        387,560                                                                     0.28             中信证券            600030             2007-2-16                 180.60                            180.60                                                                 0.001

002079    苏州固锝    2006-11-16                中信建投证券                            257,000        154,200                                                                     0.19             中信证券            600030             2007-2-16                 119.76                            71.86                                                                 0.000

002080    中材科技    2006-11-20                中信证券                                136,955        136,955                                                                     0.09             中信证券            600030             2007-2-20                 115.18                            115.18                                                                 0.000

002081    金 螳 螂    2006-11-20                中信证券                                905,846        905,846                                                                     0.96             中信证券            600030             2007-2-20                 1,023.61                         1,023.61                                                                0.003

002081    金 螳 螂    2006-11-20                中信建投证券                            312,000        187,200                                                                     0.33             中信证券            600030             2007-2-20                 352.56                            211.54                                                                 0.001

601666    N平煤     2006-11-23                中信证券                                8,913,484     8,913,484                                                                     0.83             中信证券            600030             2007-2-23                 1,230.06                         1,230.06                                                                0.004

002084    海鸥卫浴    2006-11-24                中信建投证券                            354,000        212,400                                                                     0.20             中信证券            600030             2007-2-24                 301.25                            180.75                                                                 0.001

002084    海鸥卫浴    2006-11-24                中信证券                                286,104        286,104                                                                     0.16             中信证券            600030             2007-2-24                 243.47                            243.47                                                                 0.001

  资料来源:天相投顾

 
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上海证券报网络版郑重声明

经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (8621-38967758、fanwg@cnstock.com ) 。