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      2007 年 1 月 6 日
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      | T5版:大智慧
    资金选股出现新动向
    国信证券研究报告认为:指数震荡不足以判断中期调整来临
    海通证券研究报告认为:策略性减仓应对中期顶部
    题材股:资金强力买入对象
    化工行业:油价暴跌引发掘金潮
    赣粤高速(600269):机构必配的防御性品种
    电力股:业绩效应开始显现
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
    ■评级调整
    关注低市盈率蓝筹品种
    大唐电信:阶段性底部构筑完毕
    世博股份:放量中阳预示新行情开始
    隧道股份:创新高仍是后市主基调
    三大动力激荡 电力股行情
    低价蓝筹:面临重要市场机遇
    强者恒强·追涨者乐园
    中色股份:沿5日均线逢低吸纳
    一周强势股排行榜
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    赣粤高速(600269):机构必配的防御性品种
    2007年01月06日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      随着大势行情逐步向人们预期的3000点进击,各路投资者在激奋之余,又开始追求投资资产的防御性配置。因此,价值被严重低估,行情长期滞涨的高速公路股再度觉醒。在所有高速公路股中,无论是估值水平,还是公司业绩的优越性,或者是未来的成长性,赣粤高速始终是机构投资者一直最为看好的。

      同时,也是机构投资者资产配置篮子里的必配品种和常驻品种。在年前行情的一轮下跌,也再次被许多机构投资者视为买入的良机。

    评级                                                                                                                 评级         股票         投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EPS (元)                        估值

    机构                                                                                                                 日期         评级                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2006年        2007年    2008年        

    中信                                                                                                                 2007/01/03    买入                公司收到财政补贴12648.8万元,06年EPS将增加0.092元。将提升公司06年的预测EPS 至0.688 元,提升幅度为15.45%。06年动态PE将由14.2倍降低到12.3倍。从2000年以来,尽管财政补贴占利润总额的比例逐年下降,但每次补贴收入都是意外惊喜。                                                                                                                                                                            0.69         0.74     0.90     12.00

    证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    光大                                                                                                                 2006/12/28    最优                除了计重收费和资产收购效应还将在07年体现半年以外,与九景高速相连的景婺黄(常)高速江西段已正式通车,江西北部通往长三角地区的公路通行条件大大改善,从而促进九景高速车流量增长。而温厚高速06年受到梨温高速分流,通行费收入不增反降,这一因素也将在07年以后消除。另外,随着运输市场适应性调整、车辆诱增效应的影响以及江西省对部分客车通行费优惠取消,公司旗下其他高速资产通行费收入也有望持续快速增长。    0.62         0.77     0.91     10.00~

    证券                                                                                                                                -1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11.50

    平安                                                                                                                 2006/12/27    强烈                公司在2006年有望获得补贴收入,虽然这对公司整体估值影响甚微,但是这在一定上表明了江西省对公司扶持的态度仍未转变,对于赣粤这类自身经营能力有限,依靠获取优质资产取得盈利增长的公司来说,政府的支持态度对未来发展意义十分重大。另外,昌泰公司33%的税率将会在内资企业税率改革中获益,总体来说所得税并轨对公司影响偏好。                                                                                     ----         0.76     ----        

    证券                                                                                                                                推荐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

    东方                                                                                                                 2006/12/27    买入                根据公司测算,收费站点调整后,公司经营的环内区间计费里程较调整前略有所减少,即减少昌九高速公路舍里甲收费站至长互通段约5公里的计费里程。而原批准的收费期限、单公里收费标准保持不变。                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.67         0.75     ----     11.00

    证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    申银                                                                                                                 2006/12/27    增持                从目前路桥行业A、H股估值水平来看,A股06-07年平均PE水平分别为14.6倍和13倍,H股分别为16.6和15倍,A-H价差达15%,A股路桥行业整体仍处于较低估值水平,而赣粤06-07年PE仅为14.2倍和11.8倍,甚至低于A股行业平均水平,处于明显低估状态。                                                                                                                                                                         0.67         0.70     0.77     11.00

    万国                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.663         0.744     0.86     11.19

    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     13.72         12.23     10.58        

    风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    道路网络的日趋丰富,对公司业务有分流影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

    目前公司享受的实际税率是高新技术企业的15%,未来5年内有提高调整的要求。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

      制表:证券通(www.178.com)