在一轮豪放式的权重股行情之后，市场又进入结构性调整阶段，在06年年报开始披露之际，寻找新生的成长股已经成为市场布局07年的新主题。因此，柳化股份因技术创新而出现的显著增长性受到机构投资者的重点亲睐。

　　从该公司的新技术、新项目所带来的业绩增长比例看，未来几年的增幅不可谓不高。因此，可以预期该股将会因此而进入机构云集，且长期“厮守”的核心资产股行列中。该股的长牛趋势也由此值得期待。

评级                                                                                                                 评级         股票         投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EPS （元）                        估值

机构                                                                                                                 日期         评级                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2006年        2007年    2008年        

东方                                                                                                                 2007/01/08    买入         创新性地将壳牌粉煤气化技术用于合成氨的生产，从而拓宽原料煤的使用范围，降低能耗和物耗，做到环境良好，该技术是世界先进煤炭洁净气化技术的代表，是现有传统煤炭气化技术的升级。依托壳牌粉煤气化技术，公司未来生产成本下降空间巨大，加上主要商品量产能的扩大，未来2-3年业绩的复合增长率将达到40%以上，高质量、高增长的业绩将得以持续。                                                                                                                                                                                                            

证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.68         1.26     1.82     18.00

国信                                                                                                                 2007/01/08    推荐         煤气化装置除了能够使得公司的合成氨生产成本降低22％左右以外，更重要的是它作为煤化工最重要的技术平台，为公司未来的发展打开了空间，帮助公司突破了一直以来制约公司发展的合成氨产能瓶颈：一方面，煤气化是一个重要的煤化工技术平台，煤气化下游主要包括合成氨、甲醇、醋酸、甲醛、二甲醚、硝酸、硝酸铵、磷酸二铵等众多化工产品，加上其衍生产品则成百上千；另一方面，公司下游产品产量严重受制于上端合成氨的产能不足。掌握煤气化技术无疑对于公司是一个重大的机会，由10亿元的销售规模走向20、30亿元甚至更高。                                        

证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.65         0.95     1.35     14.95

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ~

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         16.10

长江                                                                                                                 2007/01/08    推荐         在Shell新装置正常生产的情况下，26万吨的合成氨规模年可节约成本约1.3亿元。随着公司Shell装置的试车成功，未来公司将通过复制新装置来改造老的合成氨装置，从而进一步降低合成氨生产成本，提高产能，提升公司核心竞争力。随着Shell新装置的正常运行，将解决公司合成氨产能不足的瓶颈问题。公司已通过发行可转债募集资金用于30万吨大颗粒尿素装置建设。预计该项目07年底建成。通过推出新主导产品，公司将实现产品结构升级，增加新利润增长点，长期增长可期。                                                                                                

证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.65         1.01     ----     15.15

业绩预测与估值的均值（元）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.66         1.073     1.585     16.23

目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             19.54         12.02     8.14        

风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

由于Shell项目尚处在试生产阶段，要实现长周期稳定运行，尚需进一步努力和时间的考验，需要密切关注公司该项目的运行情况。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

　　制表：证券通（www.178.com）