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      2007 年 1 月 20 日
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    T5版:大智慧
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      | T5版:大智慧
    新资金看好新股板块
    申银万国研究报告认为:年报有望超预期
    低价科技股 面临大行情
    平安证券研究报告认为:高位震荡仍将延续
    奥运概念:再起拉升行情
    国联证券研究报告认为:牛市还未到结束阶段
    预增预盈股:酝酿强力突破
    双良股份(600481):业绩将突破性增长
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
    ■评级调整
    汽车行业进入高速增长期
    ST金岭:有望进入主升浪
    强者恒强·追涨者乐园
    雪莱特:快速拉升突破上轨
    陕解放:价值明显低估
    业绩+蓝筹:值得重点关注
    一周强势股排行榜
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    双良股份(600481):业绩将突破性增长
    2007年01月20日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      双良股份近期行情强悍异常,涨总是有原因的,机构深度研究报告揭示,该股从今年开始将分别受原材料价格回落导致成本下降、新扩产项目投入达产、环保节能促使行业景气度高速增长等因素激发,业绩将出现突破性增长。

      在目前行情中仍被低估且有显著成长性的股票已经越来越稀罕,因此,在机构的联袂挖掘下,该股行情自然会被“众星捧月”。从机构们对该股的估值看,该股尽管近期涨幅巨大,但仍具备着一定的估值空间。

    评级                                                                                                                 评级         股票         投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EPS (元)                        估值

    机构                                                                                                                 日期         评级                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2006年        2007年    2008年        

    东方                                                                                                                 2007/01/08    买入         创新性地将壳牌粉煤气化技术用于合成氨的生产,从而拓宽原料煤的使用范围,降低能耗和物耗,做到环境良好,该技术是世界先进煤炭洁净气化技术的代表,是现有传统煤炭气化技术的升级。依托壳牌粉煤气化技术,公司未来生产成本下降空间巨大,加上主要商品量产能的扩大,未来2-3年业绩的复合增长率将达到40%以上,高质量、高增长的业绩将得以持续。                                                                                                                                                                                                            

    证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.68         1.26     1.82     18.00

    国信                                                                                                                 2007/01/08    推荐         煤气化装置除了能够使得公司的合成氨生产成本降低22%左右以外,更重要的是它作为煤化工最重要的技术平台,为公司未来的发展打开了空间,帮助公司突破了一直以来制约公司发展的合成氨产能瓶颈:一方面,煤气化是一个重要的煤化工技术平台,煤气化下游主要包括合成氨、甲醇、醋酸、甲醛、二甲醚、硝酸、硝酸铵、磷酸二铵等众多化工产品,加上其衍生产品则成百上千;另一方面,公司下游产品产量严重受制于上端合成氨的产能不足。掌握煤气化技术无疑对于公司是一个重大的机会,由10亿元的销售规模走向20、30亿元甚至更高。                                        

    证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.65         0.95     1.35     14.95

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             16.10

    长江                                                                                                                 2007/01/08    推荐         在Shell新装置正常生产的情况下,26万吨的合成氨规模年可节约成本约1.3亿元。随着公司Shell装置的试车成功,未来公司将通过复制新装置来改造老的合成氨装置,从而进一步降低合成氨生产成本,提高产能,提升公司核心竞争力。随着Shell新装置的正常运行,将解决公司合成氨产能不足的瓶颈问题。公司已通过发行可转债募集资金用于30万吨大颗粒尿素装置建设。预计该项目07年底建成。通过推出新主导产品,公司将实现产品结构升级,增加新利润增长点,长期增长可期。                                                                                                

    证券                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.65         1.01     ----     15.15

    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.66         1.073     1.585     16.23

    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             19.54         12.02     8.14        

    风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    由于Shell项目尚处在试生产阶段,要实现长周期稳定运行,尚需进一步努力和时间的考验,需要密切关注公司该项目的运行情况。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

      制表:证券通(www.178.com)