• 1:头版
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  • A1:市 场
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  • B6:产业·公司
  • B7:公司调查
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  • C1:理财
  • C2:谈股论金
  • C3:个股查参厅
  • C4:操盘计划
  • C5:应时数据
  • C6:机构视点
  • C7:高手博客
  • C8:股民学校
  • D1:披 露
  • D2:信息大全
  • D3:信息大全
  • D4:信息披露
  • D5:信息披露
  • D6:信息披露
  • D7:信息披露
  • D8:信息披露
  • D9:信息披露
  • D10:信息披露
  • D11:信息披露
  • D12:信息披露
  • D13:信息披露
  • D14:信息披露
  • D15:信息披露
  • D16:信息披露
  • D17:信息披露
  • D18:信息披露
  • D19:信息披露
  • D20:信息披露
  • D21:信息披露
  • D22:信息披露
  • D23:信息披露
  • D24:信息披露
  • D25:信息披露
  • D26:信息披露
  • D27:信息披露
  • D28:信息披露
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      2007 年 1 月 30 日
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      | C5版:应时数据
    三千关口掘金高安全边际品种
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
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    三千关口掘金高安全边际品种
    2007年01月30日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      □本报记者 周韬

      

      目前全部A股的平均市盈率已接近30倍,整体来看,A股已经不便宜。但值得关注的是,仍然存在一部分估值大幅落后于市场整体水平,股价表现与公司业绩极不相称的高性价比品种,这些品种主要集中在煤炭、纺织、化工、电力、交运、有色等行业,值得投资者关注。

      经过2006年的急升以后,A股的估值水平获得了极大的提升,目前的整体市盈率与世界主要市场相比,都是一个相对高的水平。分行业而言,信息设备、食品饮料、旅游、房地产等行业目前的绝对估值水平偏高,均在50倍以上;钢铁、有色、采掘、化工等行业的估值则处于较低水平。

      股指临近三千关口,部分板块是否存有在泡沫的嫌疑,在市场上引发了较大的争议。从安全的角度出发,资金有望流向煤炭、电力、化工、有色、交运等长期沉寂行业,使这些行业的个股可能存在全局性的机会。

      如煤炭行业,随着市场对煤价、煤企成本转嫁能力及盈利能力的重新认识与评估,其背离基本面的低估状况将有望得到纠正。而化工行业近期关注度也是显著提高,上周,泸天化、传化股份等多家化工企业被上调投资评级。化工企业特别是创新和技术领先的化工企业有望成为市场热点。

      年报披露陆续展开,绩优有色股再度活跃。这个去年上半年风光无限的板块,沉寂了很长一段时间。相对于A股其他领域,有色板块当前已经相对低估,板块内多数个股估值仍然处于合理水平,并未透支2007年的业绩增长,因此,投资有色股也不失为较为安全的一个选择。

      除了把握行业的全局性机会以外,一些估值大幅落后于行业整体水平的绩优白马股,投资价值也是十分突出。如电子元器件行业中的佛山照明,市盈率仅为19倍;纺织行业的鲁泰A,市盈率也仅为14倍;这两只个股均是各自细分行业的龙头企业,盈利能力也一直保持在较高的水平,在分红上也有较高比例的保障,应该说都是目前市场上不可多得的好品种。

      如附表所示,是本报统计出来的目前市场中估值偏低、性价比比较高的品种,这些个股在整个去年下半年股价都未有充分表现,部分个股今年以来已经开始启动,但多数仍然有待市场的价值发掘。

      部分估值偏低的高性价比品种一览

    代码     名称        估值                                 每股收益(元)             净资产收益率(%)             去年下半年             所属行业     所属行业平均市盈率(倍)

                                                                                                                        涨跌幅(%)                                

                         预测市盈率(倍)(2006Y)    市净率(倍)    2005Y         2006Q3    2005Y             2006Q3                                            

    000937    金牛能源    10.32                    1.74         0.68            0.41     17.97             10.50     -7.02                    采掘         16.63

    600997    开滦股份    12.35                    2.29         0.82            0.57     17.86             13.39     -1.75                    采掘            

    600971    恒源煤电    12.84                    2.71         1.08            0.89     20.38             17.22     27.61                    采掘            

    601001    大同煤业    18.11                    2.85         0.81            0.38     31.47             9.88     38.02                    采掘            

    600123    兰花科创    15.82                    4.56         1.15            1.18     26.21             22.25     49.28                    采掘            

    601699    潞安环能    15.18                    3.39         1.53            0.94     45.32             17.56     45.64                    采掘            

    000983    西山煤电    14.23                    2.98         0.80            0.63     21.14             15.61     4.19                     采掘            

    600188    兖州煤业    15.29                    2.23         0.51            0.37     14.56             9.97     -3.03                    采掘            

    600508    上海能源    11.22                    2.54         1.01            0.47     19.41             14.69     -3.99                    采掘            

    600348    国阳新能    13.29                    2.95         1.21            0.98     21.90             16.35     6.51                     采掘            

    000933    神火股份    16.32                    3.93         0.95            0.60     30.58             17.18     17.57                    采掘            

    600183    生益科技    21.75                    6.64         0.33            0.38     15.59             23.01     32.20                    电子元器件    45.85

    000541    佛山照明    19.03                    1.91         0.61            0.46     9.53             7.17     2.77                     电子元器件        

    600261    浙江阳光    23.50                    2.95         0.65            0.49     11.32             9.24     2.69                     电子元器件        

    600817    宏盛科技    16.61                    5.11         0.50            0.31     21.42             14.74     -13.10                 电子元器件        

    000760    博盈投资    9.32                     4.97         0.14            0.32     8.92             20.16     48.81                    房地产        50.95

    600641    万业企业    21.99                    1.75         0.06            0.31     1.39             6.55     31.91                    房地产            

    000616    亿城股份    18.32                    3.51         0.11            0.33     4.67             13.13     43.18                    房地产            

    000014    沙河股份    26.25                    3.17         0.35            0.34     10.04             12.85     41.48                    房地产            

    002034    美欣达     18.10                    1.46         0.38            0.31     7.11             5.77     -0.77                    纺织服装     36.71

    600398    凯诺科技    16.96                    1.62         0.45            0.36     9.75             7.44     3.88                     纺织服装        

    000726    鲁泰A     14.02                    2.61         0.74            0.61     17.93             13.76     25.82                    纺织服装        

    600232    金鹰股份    16.31                    2.26         0.48            0.33     12.68             8.13     9.52                     纺织服装        

    600323    南海发展    21.63                    2.49         0.37            0.33     9.36             8.47     5.74                     公用事业     24.5

    600900    长江电力    25.80                    4.01         0.41            0.30     15.02             10.67     45.40                    公用事业        

    000531    穗恒运A     17.34                    3.05         0.46            0.43     13.95             14.84     38.47                    公用事业        

    600886    国投电力    21.95                    2.81         0.67            0.35     27.52             9.42     16.69                    公用事业        

    600642    申能股份    15.52                    2.22         0.50            0.50     13.73             12.41     14.49                    公用事业        

    600310    桂东电力    26.72                    2.99         0.34            0.39     8.51             9.46     33.39                    公用事业        

    000027    深能源A     15.83                    2.71         0.60            0.47     16.19             12.91     25.89                    公用事业        

    000778    新兴铸管    13.61                    1.85         0.82            0.32     15.31             8.41     27.07                    黑色金属     15.79

    600307    酒钢宏兴    11.02                    1.22         0.70            0.39     13.53             8.46     23.27                    黑色金属        

    000708    大冶特钢    18.44                    3.09         0.18            0.57     8.30             20.67     4.61                     黑色金属        

    600231    凌钢股份    9.29                     1.31         0.62            0.52     13.38             10.61     40.88                    黑色金属        

    000755    山西三维    23.75                    2.32         0.22            0.30     5.72             7.31     7.11                     化工         22.17

    600589    广东榕泰    24.81                    3.37         0.30            0.39     8.91             10.43     48.65                    化工            

    002010    传化股份    24.00                    4.37         0.60            0.40     16.74             10.42     35.90                    化工            

    600096    云天化     14.69                    3.51         1.27            0.92     25.09             17.95     46.80                    化工            

    000912    泸天化     10.90                    2.55         0.78            0.57     21.93             16.06     11.19                    化工            

    000731    S川美丰     14.32                    3.03         0.95            0.81     20.83             16.54     16.47                    化工            

    600075    新疆天业    15.34                    3.10         0.71            0.34     12.00             12.34     36.84                    化工            

    000662    索芙特     25.56                    5.08         0.44            0.39     20.77             14.96     35.93                    化工            

    600636    三爱富     26.50                    4.68         0.47            0.30     17.33             13.12     6.98                     化工            

    600423    柳化股份    22.28                    3.48         0.50            0.48     12.68             11.15     29.54                    化工            

    600227    赤天化     13.42                    1.83         1.03            0.80     16.96             11.97     12.26                    化工            

    002054    德美化工    29.03                    3.04         0.36            0.31     14.53             8.63     47.26                    化工            

    000950    ST建峰     13.39                    4.91         -0.28         0.47     -25.59             29.84     3.40                     化工            

    600260    凯乐科技    13.36                    2.02         0.18            0.31     4.48             7.43     11.68                    化工            

    600486    扬农化工    23.69                    2.75         0.43            0.35     10.99             8.10     -3.01                    化工            

    代码     名称        估值                                 每股收益(元)             净资产收益率(%)             去年下半年             所属行业    所属行业平均市盈率(倍)

                                                                                                                        涨跌幅(%)                                

                         预测市盈率(倍)(2006Y)    市净率(倍)    2005Y         2006Q3    2005Y             2006Q3                                            

    600786    S东锅     15.06                    5.80         2.01            1.16     51.10             23.21     9.43                     机械设备    36.27

    600577    精达股份    21.26                    2.94         0.41            0.32     12.64             11.00     27.34                    机械设备        

    600320    振华港机    25.17                    7.82         0.78            0.38     26.42             21.75     38.06                    机械设备        

    600592    龙溪股份    25.34                    3.43         0.46            0.40     11.73             9.86     26.45                    机械设备        

    600627    上电股份    18.01                    5.52         0.83            0.86     28.63             24.55     13.33                    机械设备        

    600475    华光股份    20.59                    4.52         0.44            0.50     19.23             18.11     27.09                    机械设备        

    000852    S江钻     29.89                    4.47         0.29            0.34     11.21             12.44     -8.48                    机械设备        

    002050    三花股份    21.32                    2.70         0.40            0.31     11.57             8.74     1.42                     家用电器    36.04

    000527    美的电器    25.42                    3.56         0.61            0.65     12.48             12.31     40.00                    家用电器        

    000619    海螺型材    23.27                    2.58         0.38            0.32     9.75             7.82     23.84                    建筑建材    40.61

    002062    宏润建设    21.86                    2.69         0.74            0.47     22.66             9.17     34.86                    建筑建材        

    600491    龙元建设    15.20                    2.33         0.61            0.32     13.68             10.40     39.50                    建筑建材        

    000022    深赤湾A     19.09                    5.93         0.91            0.77     27.69             23.38     28.64                    交通运输    28.47

    600270    外运发展    18.77                    3.00         0.51            0.42     17.05             12.63     -6.94                    交通运输        

    600087    南京水运    19.18                    2.66         0.46            0.31     16.90             10.65     44.36                    交通运输        

    600269    赣粤高速    16.43                    2.34         0.51            0.43     10.42             9.99     24.96                    交通运输        

    000088    盐田港     24.41                    5.55         0.55            0.45     20.27             17.93     10.52                    交通运输        

    600650    锦江投资    22.69                    2.86         0.45            0.35     13.21             10.04     11.43                    交通运输        

    600317    营口港     16.09                    2.49         0.52            0.45     11.20             10.73     6.62                     交通运输        

    000900    现代投资    16.92                    1.96         0.44            0.56     6.64             8.65     22.78                    交通运输        

    600012    皖通高速    16.43                    2.54         0.40            0.32     14.22             11.16     14.37                    交通运输        

    600303    曙光股份    18.29                    2.76         0.54            0.51     13.07             11.30     26.95                    交运设备    40.95

    600418    江淮汽车    13.99                    2.22         0.55            0.38     17.94             11.71     -8.04                    交运设备        

    600966    博汇纸业    12.90                    1.48         0.59            0.40     10.02             8.10     5.24                     轻工制造    30.65

    002014    永新股份    22.24                    2.84         0.47            0.32     12.38             8.48     13.45                    轻工制造        

    000488    晨鸣纸业    16.01                    1.74         0.45            0.33     11.02             7.77     0.46                     轻工制造        

    002078    太阳纸业    23.69                    7.26         1.41            1.02     28.32             19.70     14.07                    轻工制造        

    600824    益民百货    20.14                    3.58         0.19            0.32     9.25             13.88     4.46                     商业贸易    45.69

    600058    五矿发展    16.30                    2.63         0.40            0.45     11.21             12.00     -9.30                    商业贸易        

    000911    南宁糖业    13.48                    2.79         0.13            0.51     3.74             13.17     -25.79                 食品饮料    60.63

    600079    人福科技    11.44                    1.83         0.25            0.40     8.85             11.84     20.00                    医药生物    44.09

    600535    天士力     28.06                    4.73         0.68            0.44     14.79             9.39     7.91                     医药生物        

    600062    双鹤药业    29.98                    2.86         0.42            0.31     10.80             7.65     19.84                    医药生物        

    600529    山东药玻    27.99                    2.95         0.37            0.33     9.70             8.13     41.93                    医药生物        

    600521    华海药业    27.20                    4.52         0.55            0.43     16.14             11.49     22.42                    医药生物        

    002099    海翔药业    29.89                    8.29         0.62            0.50     27.39             19.71     38.41                    医药生物        

    600993    马应龙     29.21                    3.54         1.17            1.06     10.55             9.25     22.25                    医药生物        

    600961    株冶火炬    23.42                    4.57         0.17            0.70     8.22             25.99     17.87                    有色金属    19.04

    600489    中金黄金    29.38                    6.78         0.24            0.52     8.53             16.57     -15.84                 有色金属        

    000612    焦作万方    17.97                    5.40         -0.25         0.41     -14.30             18.59     33.52                    有色金属        

    600472    包头铝业    13.47                    3.23         0.31            0.60     9.84             16.75     7.69                     有色金属        

    600362    江西铜业    10.17                    3.70         0.64            1.23     21.95             30.90     -1.19                    有色金属        

    000060    中金岭南    13.15                    6.57         0.64            1.37     19.27             37.31     19.93                    有色金属        

    600531    豫光金铅    15.50                    2.71         0.38            0.44     12.34             12.95     13.08                    有色金属        

    000630    铜都铜业    10.86                    1.79         0.58            0.52     13.76             11.50     1.92                     有色金属        

    600432    吉恩镍业    24.48                    6.48         0.85            0.72     22.43             18.84     23.73                    有色金属        

    600595    中孚实业    16.46                    2.41         0.24            0.46     6.46             11.04     10.81                    有色金属        

    600205    S山东铝     16.61                    4.38         1.29            1.33     26.60             22.85     12.84                    有色金属        

    000878    云南铜业    11.64                    3.65         0.62            1.03     19.60             25.98     32.78                    有色金属        

    600331    宏达股份    16.67                    6.42         0.44            0.92     18.69             28.09     -13.13                 有色金属        

    600255    鑫科材料    23.82                    2.31         0.22            0.35     4.04             7.73     -2.94                    有色金属