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    股东人数变化看未来投资机会
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    股东人数变化看未来投资机会
    2007年03月09日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      □武汉新兰德 余凯

      

      作为上市公司业绩披露报告中重要的一项内容,股东人数的变化越来越引起投资者的重视。一般而言,股东户数增减变化与股价中期的涨跌幅呈现负相关。即股东户数越增加,股价往往表现低迷或者远落后于大盘;相反,股东户数越是减少,股价走势往往越是涨幅居前或相对抗跌。

      从已经公布2006年年报的情况看,股东户数环比大幅减少的前几名,其股价表现可谓惊人,典型的如云铝股份2006年第四季度股东总数43.5%环比减少了,股价却在2007年两个月里最大涨幅超过了51%,无独有偶,作为基金投资者重仓的品种,瑞贝卡四季度股东总数环比减少了33.5%,股价在2007年大涨超过了77%。另一方面,一些股东人数大幅增加的个股表现则相对一般,如中创信测、阳之光等。

      需要说明的是,流通股本大小并不是决定股东户数增减的主要因素。从股东户数减、增幅前列个股来看,盘子大小与股东户数增减并无实质上的关联。在价值投资已经成为机构投资理念首选的背景下,吸引大资金介入的主要是看业绩、估值和未来预期的成长性等。当然业绩好并不意味着股东户数减少,相反业绩一般的个股反而纷纷上榜股东户数减幅前列中,如*ST兴发、S*ST百花等,这种现象产生的原因是随着股改进程的加快,一些质地不佳的个股存在资产重组的内在要求和动力,随着乌鸡变凤凰案例的增多,一些投机性资金对这类品种的兴趣也在明显提升。

      综合来看,筹码集中度提高,一方面是上市公司业绩优秀、投资价值提升的结果,另一方面也是机构固守价值投资理念导致的选股思路。随着筹码集中度进一步提高,情况也会发生变化,过于集中的持股状况最终将使得这些个股蕴涵流动性风险,并且由于机构操作趋向同步,一旦有一家机构反向操作,马上会引发其他机构跟风,从而给市场增加不稳定因素。对此投资者对机构新增仓的股票可保持关注,但要注意提防流动性风险。

      同时,需要提醒的是,在股本不变的情况下,股东户数的变化,往往意味着人均持股数量的变化,即筹码的分散或集中,它揭示了投资者进入或退出股市的趋势,因而往往成为股价变动的前兆或直接结果。因此,考察财务报表中股东户数的变化趋势,对捕捉投资机会,具有一定的指导意义。但该项数据的滞后性也要有所警惕,要辩证地分析目前已高度集中化的个股。另外,股东人数的增加与减少并非决定股价涨跌的惟一因素,在用该指标选择个股时,应注意该指标的局限性。比如主力机构有可能通过期末采用突击重仓或分仓的方法来达到迷惑中小投资者的目的等。如秦岭水泥就是一只典型的庄股,即使股东人数再减少并不能昭示出明显的投资机会。因此,正确的方法应该是与公司基本面的变化相结合。

      上市公司连续四季股东户数变化

      部分年报股东户数减少公司一览

    证券代码    证券简称    当期股东总户数(户)(T0)    环比增减(%)(T0-T1)/T1    前一期股东总户数(户)(T1)    环比增减(%)(T1-T2)/T2    前二期股东总户数(户)(T2)    环比增减(%)(T2-T3)/T3    前三期股东总户数(户)(T3)    当期总股本            当期流通A股

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (万股)                (万股)

    000807     云铝股份    23,216                    -43.54                 41,123                     -1.37                    41,694                     18.88                    35,072                     54,600                54,600

    002035     华帝股份    7,185                     -42.70                 12,540                     -9.76                    13,897                     2.35                     13,578                     13,213                13,213

    000759     武汉中百    17,137                    -39.89                 28,511                     0.69                     28,315                     -19.85                 35,329                     33,527                33,527

    600308     华泰股份    33,470                    -38.57                 54,482                     11.57                    48,833                     24.45                    39,239                     48,041                48,041

    600383     金地集团    12,089                    -37.55                 19,359                     7.75                     17,967                     0.06                     17,956                     66,600                66,600

    600276     恒瑞医药    3,349                     -36.32                 5,259                     -12.77                 6,029                     -25.79                 8,124                     33,159                33,159

    600439     瑞 贝 卡    6,727                     -33.48                 10,113                     24.87                    8,099                     -28.15                 11,272                     18,969                18,969

    600469     风神股份    14,179                    -33.33                 21,268                     -11.04                 23,908                     -13.14                 27,525                     25,500                25,500

    000157     中联重科    12,185                    -32.97                 18,178                     14.03                    15,941                     10.01                    14,491                     50,700                50,700

    000960     锡业股份    40,789                    -32.02                 60,004                     2.71                     58,421                     -4.25                    61,011                     53,686                53,686

    600409     三友化工    28,046                    -31.75                 41,093                     -4.04                    42,824                     15.73                    37,003                     54,600                54,600

    600296     S 兰 铝    43,289                    -31.57                 63,258                     -10.22                 70,462                     3.65                     67,981                     54,233                30,182

    600660     福耀玻璃    10,215                    -31.52                 14,916                     -4.22                    15,574                     -13.46                 17,997                     100,149             100,149

    000690     宝新能源    15,116                    -31.27                 21,993                     10.22                    19,954                     -0.26                    20,006                     74,073                74,073

    600587     新华医疗    8,522                     -29.53                 12,093                     -12.14                 13,764                     2.95                     13,370                     8,582                 8,582

    600066     宇通客车    17,667                    -29.01                 24,888                     -4.92                    26,175                     7.29                     24,396                     39,992                39,992

    600205     S 山东铝    35,738                    -28.08                 49,694                     7.59                     46,187                     29.31                    35,717                     67,200                19,200

    600048     保利地产    12,443                    -26.56                 16,943                     94027.78                 18                                                                             55,000                55,000

    600298     安琪酵母    7,656                     -25.39                 10,261                     -21.71                 13,107                     -19.18                 16,217                     13,570                13,570

    600718     东软股份    26,922                    -24.83                 35,814                     -19.53                 44,508                     -14.53                 52,077                     28,145                28,145

    000888     峨眉山A    9,625                     -24.53                 12,753                     -20.08                 15,957                     1.80                     15,675                     23,519                23,519

    600527     江南高纤    6,629                     -24.21                 8,746                     38.76                    6,303                     -29.20                 8,903                     21,600                21,600

    000829     赣南果业    5,414                     -23.92                 7,116                     -24.86                 9,470                     -40.40                 15,889                     25,200                25,200

    600096     云 天 化    33,181                    -23.65                 43,458                     -10.41                 48,510                     10.58                    43,868                     53,635                53,635

    600804     鹏 博 士    11,170                    -23.62                 14,624                     -18.85                 18,021                     -24.51                 23,872                     14,180                14,180

    600371     华冠科技    7,765                     -23.45                 10,144                     -8.93                    11,139                     -40.14                 18,609                     15,500                15,500

    600206     有研硅股    24,616                    -22.47                 31,750                     -4.63                    33,292                     9.77                     30,329                     14,500                14,500

    600740     山西焦化    23,786                    -21.92                 30,464                     2.37                     29,759                                                                         20,285                20,285

    600408     安泰集团    22,953                    -20.96                 29,040                     -5.09                    30,597                     -15.84                 36,354                     39,100                39,100

    000780     *ST 兴发    38,674                    -20.87                 48,875                     -17.63                 59,339                     0.98                     58,764                     61,431                61,431

    000860     顺鑫农业    32,849                    -20.19                 41,161                     -8.66                    45,062                     -5.90                    47,888                     39,774                39,774

    000822     山东海化    42,657                    -20.13                 53,409                     -2.17                    54,595                     29.71                    42,090                     73,581                73,581

    600781     *ST 辅仁    6,497                     -17.81                 7,905                     9.20                     7,239                     -0.15                    7,250                     17,759                17,759

    600721     S*ST百花    6,162                     -17.77                 7,494                     14.43                    6,549                     -35.78                 10,197                     9,480                 4,650

    000823     超声电子    52,327                    -17.68                 63,567                     -4.33                    66,445                     4.00                     63,888                     35,920                35,920

    600114     宁波东睦    15,078                    -16.71                 18,102                     -6.48                    19,357                     6.08                     18,247                     19,550                19,550

    600143     金发科技    3,801                     -16.68                 4,562                     -30.73                 6,586                     -28.29                 9,184                     31,850                31,850

    600482     风帆股份    22,530                    -16.54                 26,996                     -14.46                 31,558                     3.84                     30,391                     21,800                21,800

    600755     厦门国贸    57,665                    -16.05                 68,690                     23.89                    55,445                     -4.14                    57,840                     45,949                45,949

    600208     中宝股份    20,671                    -15.96                 24,597                     -28.06                 34,191                     -1.30                    34,641                     151,276             151,276

    000514     渝 开 发    14,075                    -15.81                 16,719                     20.58                    13,865                     -22.00                 17,775                     48,764                48,764

    001696     宗申动力    7,402                     -15.72                 8,783                     -37.80                 14,120                     7.84                     13,093                     21,351                21,351

    600109     S 成建投    6,185                     -15.52                 7,321                     -10.63                 8,192                     -9.88                    9,090                     7,098                 2,750

    600325     华发股份    20,447                    -15.26                 24,129                     -27.57                 33,315                     18.18                    28,189                     31,624                31,624

    600064     南京高科    56,012                    -15.16                 66,022                     -7.00                    70,988                     -8.40                    77,495                     34,415                34,415

    600385     *ST 金泰    14,220                    -14.71                 16,672                     4.59                     15,941                     -12.38                 18,194                     14,811                14,811

    000062     深圳华强    33,267                    -13.87                 38,625                     -24.85                 51,399                     -7.13                    55,348                     30,893                30,893

    600577     精达股份    10,501                    -13.79                 12,181                     5.65                     11,530                     -2.95                    11,880                     12,960                12,960

    600547     山东黄金    11,731                    -13.69                 13,592                     10.40                    12,312                     -6.43                    13,158                     16,000                16,000

    000655     金岭矿业    14,965                    -13.52                 17,304                     -1.79                    17,619                     -10.92                 19,779                     32,125                32,125

      部分年报股东户数增加公司一览

    证券代码    证券简称    当期股东总户数(户)(T0)    环比增减(%)(T0-T1)/T1    前一期股东总户数(户)(T1)    环比增减(%)(T1-T2)/T2    前二期股东总户数(户)(T2)    环比增减(%)(T2-T3)/T3    前三期股东总户数(户)(T3)    当期总股本(万股)    当期流通A股

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (万股)

    600888     新疆众和    10,331                    92.13                    5,377                     -3.05                    5,546                     -47.61                 10,585                     16,559             16,559

    600485     中创信测    10,336                    69.72                    6,090                     -1.15                    6,161                     -7.35                    6,650                     13,663             13,663

    600331     宏达股份    25,255                    59.42                    15,842                     27.10                    12,464                     -33.21                 18,662                     41,600             41,600

    600673     阳 之 光    14,527                    46.03                    9,948                     -38.92                 16,286                     -6.79                    17,473                     12,673             12,673

    600343     航天动力    19,784                    42.95                    13,840                     -37.28                 22,068                     -8.35                    24,078                     18,500             18,500

    000627     天茂集团    47,474                    41.50                    33,550                     12.25                    29,889                     -31.40                 43,571                     59,479             59,479

    600616     第一食品    16,795                    39.12                    12,072                     18.53                    10,185                     13.84                    8,947                     36,556             36,556

    000031     中粮地产    64,034                    36.26                    46,995                     -7.64                    50,883                     21.78                    41,782                     69,945             69,945

    000963     华东医药    23,226                    36.08                    17,068                     -2.61                    17,525                     7.99                     16,229                     43,406             43,406

    600995     文山电力    22,077                    35.15                    16,335                     -0.86                    16,477                     -12.71                 18,877                     22,154             22,154

    600268     国电南自    21,181                    31.52                    16,105                     -3.89                    16,757                     -11.71                 18,979                     17,700             17,700

    600159     大龙地产    20,007                    27.82                    15,653                     24.20                    12,603                     13.03                    11,150                     30,500             30,500

    000917     电广传媒    54,130                    24.93                    43,329                     10.13                    39,344                     -27.63                 54,368                     33,865             33,865

    600406     国电南瑞    5,147                     22.29                    4,209                     -4.12                    4,390                     -4.23                    4,584                     21,255             21,255

    000901     航天科技    22,654                    20.74                    18,762                     -18.20                 22,937                     10.49                    20,760                     22,176             22,176

    000936     华 西 村    23,317                    17.47                    19,850                     10.94                    17,893                     -12.64                 20,483                     44,001             44,001

    600517     置信电气    8,293                     16.23                    7,135                     -21.03                 9,035                     -34.08                 13,707                     19,958             19,958

    000778     新兴铸管    87,154                    16.05                    75,102                     2.77                     73,081                     12.91                    64,725                     111,223             111,223

    002033     丽江旅游    9,001                     15.60                    7,786                     -13.20                 8,970                     -27.43                 12,361                     9,932             9,932

    000612     焦作万方    29,949                    15.36                    25,961                     -4.79                    27,267                     -3.16                    28,156                     48,018             48,018

    002015     霞客环保    16,416                    14.32                    14,360                     35.59                    10,591                     28.64                    8,233                     10,064             10,064

    002013     中航精机    10,413                    13.12                    9,205                     -7.32                    9,932                     -2.86                    10,224                     6,000             6,000

    600675     中华企业    72,931                    13.02                    64,527                     -33.50                 97,032                     0.90                     96,164                     69,746             69,746

    000558     莱茵置业    13,976                    11.81                    12,500                     6.46                     11,742                     -11.01                 13,195                     11,716             11,716

    600710     常林股份    48,210                    11.06                    43,408                     5.31                     41,218                     34.78                    30,581                     33,000             33,000

    600370     三 房 巷    20,102                    11.05                    18,101                     19.87                    15,101                     -18.80                 18,597                     28,487             28,487

    000988     华工科技    34,301                    10.79                    30,961                     -3.82                    32,191                     -2.52                    33,023                     29,900             29,900

    002025     航天电器    15,415                    9.84                     14,034                     -6.80                    15,058                     18.21                    12,738                     14,400             14,400

    000850     华茂股份    35,776                    9.74                     32,600                     11.46                    29,247                     -34.70                 44,788                     62,911             62,911

    000852     S 江 钻    13,985                    8.73                     12,862                     -15.78                 15,272                     -32.25                 22,542                     30,800             7,700

    600117     西宁特钢    77,835                    7.88                     72,149                     6.84                     67,527                     -17.27                 81,622                     69,317             69,317

    600967     北方创业    15,339                    7.03                     14,331                     -33.94                 21,694                     24.62                    17,408                     13,000             13,000

    600082     海泰发展    23,821                    6.91                     22,282                     -7.65                    24,127                     -8.01                    26,228                     26,817             26,817

    600219     南山铝业    46,607                    6.89                     43,604                     -43.42                 77,064                     67.26                    46,075                     61,880             61,880

    000989     九 芝 堂    32,925                    6.63                     30,877                     -9.25                    34,026                     8.73                     31,295                     24,800             24,800

    002058     威 尔 泰    7,418                     6.57                     6,961                     26673.08                 26                                                                             6,237             6,237

    600636     三 爱 富    26,100                    5.44                     24,754                     7.20                     23,091                     47.91                    15,611                     31,566             31,566

    600971     恒源煤电    19,273                    5.36                     18,292                     -10.28                 20,388                     -6.43                    21,789                     18,840             18,840

    600432     吉恩镍业    25,061                    4.58                     23,963                     24.19                    19,295                     -16.17                 23,016                     22,800             22,800

    600054     黄山旅游    31,790                    4.09                     30,540                     -13.01                 35,106                     -24.63                 46,579                     45,435             29,835

    000937     金牛能源    59,080                    3.93                     56,845                     1.63                     55,932                     3.67                     53,951                     78,694             78,694

    600572     康 恩 贝    13,559                    3.84                     13,057                     -0.55                    13,129                     -28.59                 18,386                     13,720             13,720

    600824     益民百货    45,683                    3.39                     44,187                     1.90                     43,361                     47.85                    29,327                     44,201             44,201

    600495     晋西车轴    9,221                     3.29                     8,927                     -31.52                 13,036                     -17.71                 15,842                     10,291             10,291

    000835     四川圣达    12,269                    2.95                     11,918                     -15.16                 14,048                     -1.07                    14,200                     10,800             10,800

    000939     凯迪电力    36,954                    2.52                     36,046                     7.90                     33,408                     -12.25                 38,073                     28,119             28,119

    002028     思源电气    3,012                     2.24                     2,946                     -31.28                 4,287                     -31.74                 6,280                     10,600             10,600

    000546     光华控股    19,987                    2.00                     19,595                     3.96                     18,848                     5.49                     17,867                     16,951             16,951

    000611     时代科技    28,516                    1.97                     27,965                     5.91                     26,404                     -1.43                    26,788                     21,656             21,656

    002038     双鹭药业    5,265                     1.74                     5,175                     -0.98                    5,226                     -21.07                 6,621                     8,280             8,280

      注:T0期为2006年年末,T1期为2006年3季度末,T2期为2006年2季度末,T3期为2006年1季度末