• 1:头版
  • 2:环球财讯
  • 3:财经要闻
  • 4:焦点
  • 5:观点·评论
  • 6:特别报道
  • 7:公司巡礼
  • 8:时事·海外
  • A1:市 场
  • A2:股市
  • A3:基金
  • A4:金融
  • A5:金融·机构
  • A6:货币·债券
  • A8:期货
  • B1:公 司
  • B2:上市公司
  • B3:上市公司
  • B4:海外上市公司
  • B5:产业·公司
  • B6:产业·公司
  • B7:行业研究
  • B8:专版
  • C1:理财
  • C2:谈股论金
  • C3:个股查参厅
  • C4:操盘计划
  • C5:应时数据
  • C6:机构视点
  • C7:高手博客
  • C8:股民学校
  • D1:披 露
  • D2:信息大全
  • D3:专版
  • D4:专版
  • D5:专版
  • D6:信息披露
  • D7:信息披露
  • D8:产权
  • D10:信息披露
  • D11:信息披露
  • D12:信息披露
  • D13:信息披露
  • D14:信息披露
  • D15:信息披露
  • D16:信息披露
  • D17:信息披露
  • D18:信息披露
  • D19:信息披露
  • D20:信息披露
  • D21:信息披露
  • D22:信息披露
  • D23:信息披露
  • D24:信息披露
  • D25:信息披露
  • D26:信息披露
  • D27:信息披露
  • D28:信息披露
  • D29:信息披露
  • D30:信息披露
  • D31:信息披露
  • D32:信息披露
  • D33:信息披露
  • D34:信息披露
  • D35:信息披露
  • D36:信息披露
  • D37:信息披露
  • D38:信息披露
  • D39:信息披露
  • D40:信息披露
  • D41:信息披露
  • D42:信息披露
  • D43:信息披露
  • D44:信息披露
  •  
      2007 年 3 月 20 日
    前一天  后一天  
    按日期查找
    C5版:应时数据
    上一版  下一版  
    pdf
     
     
      | C5版:应时数据
    加息突袭 牛市经受考验
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
    上海证券报网络版郑重声明
        经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (8621-38967758、fanwg@cnstock.com ) 。

     
      本版导航 | 版面导航 | 标题导航 收藏 | 打印 | 推荐  
     
    加息突袭 牛市经受考验
    2007年03月20日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      □本报记者 周韬

      

      央行在上周六又来了一次“出其不意”,加息出台的速度快于市场预期。

      此次仍然是27个基点的小幅加息,而且鉴于美国经济放缓,美国保持现有利率稳定的可能性比较大,如果央行延续过往保持中美一定利差的取向不变,那么其下一步继续加息的空间不大。1-2 月份,我国金融机构信贷增量超过9000 亿元,创下历史新高。1-2 月份,全部规模以上工业企业完成增加值同比增长18.5%,与去年全年相比,增速上升1.9个百分点,一季度的GDP 增速可能再次超出市场预期。此外,迄今CPI 已连续3 个月增长幅度超过2%,接近3%的水平,通货膨胀压力加大。加息反映了央行提前防范经济过热的意图。

      此次加息后,一年期存款基准利率提高到2.79%,略高于同期CPI 的水平(2 月CPI 同比上升2.7%),使得利率水平恢复至正常的“正利率”水平,有利于抑制过度投资的冲动。同时,由于流动性过剩仍然是宏观经济的一大难题,通过加息的手段、配合提高准备金率等措施,有助于防范资产价格泡沫,保持资本市场的健康。

      从加息对股市影响来看,2006年两次加息后,影响几乎只限于加息的当天,且股指当日即扭转收阳。昨日,沪综指开盘报2864.26点,跌2.26%,深成指开盘报7918.75点,跌2.81%;但随后股指即迅速上攻,沪综指收盘突破3000点,深成指最终收涨1.59%。可见,加息的冲击更多的来自于投资者心理上的变化。

      由于加息的幅度很小,对上市公司利润的影响程度有限。据测算,此次加息对全部A股上市公司利润的影响幅度约为0.6%。具体而言,不同上市公司对银行负债比例不一,所受到的影响也是各异。电力、建材、化工、房地产等行业部分公司银行负债比例较高,加息所带来的成本增加较大。不过加息的影响也应该综合考量,如房地产板块,虽然加息增加了房地产开发公司的资金成本,使资金链更加紧绷,产生不利因素;但是同时,加息以后,市场对短期内进一步出台房地产调控措施的预期也下降,有实力的企业也可以借机加速行业内的整合,又存在有利的一面。

      作为加息的受益者,金融板块在昨天有不错的表现。加息有助于扩大银行的净息差,因为此次加息尽管对长、短期存贷款利率进行同等幅度的调整,但是没有上调活期存款利率。而加息对保险公司的利好主要体现在提升保险公司存款和债券的收益率。

      银行负债比例较高的个股一览

    代码     名称        最新一期资产负债情况                                                                                                                             所属行业

                         资产负债率(%)         长期借款             短期借款             负债合计             资产总计             长期借款+短期借款/总资产(%)        

                                                 (万元)             (万元)             (万元)             (万元)                                                    

    002039    黔源电力    80.04                 168050.00             33700.00             211213.44             263877.18             76.46                             公用事业

    002083    孚日股份    85.94                 20400.00             260619.83             367974.41             428174.20             65.63                             纺织服装

    600084    新天国际    91.24                 28300.00             194533.99             310142.55             339932.44             65.55                             商业贸易

    000966    长源电力    81.88                 444663.82             156600.00             754298.28             921231.02             65.27                             公用事业

    600396    金山股份    73.13                 199816.40             46000.00             278557.19             380922.21             64.53                             公用事业

    600386    北京巴士    79.02                 184250.00             92000.00             340730.29             431205.75             64.06                             信息服务

    600067    冠城大通    82.61                 113053.18             165332.08             367943.94             445398.56             62.50                             机械设备

    600744    华银电力    73.38                 525834.65             72000.00             706136.92             962269.22             62.13                             公用事业

    600299    星新材料    75.87                 95000.00             219580.00             387533.50             510769.65             61.59                             化工

    000605    四环药业    77.28                 3000.00             18060.00             26863.94             34760.13             60.59                             医药生物

    000815    美利纸业    79.13                 162700.00             73356.83             320132.60             404544.37             58.35                             轻工制造

    600106    重庆路桥    65.49                 130600.00             65100.00             221880.52             338780.65             57.77                             交通运输

    600963    岳阳纸业    70.58                 96968.90             122760.00             268600.54             380586.71             57.73                             轻工制造

    600648    外高桥     73.59                 125400.00             129660.18             327410.88             444897.74             57.33                             房地产

    600141    兴发集团    77.13                 75178.00             60200.00             183234.14             237567.83             56.99                             化工

    601991    大唐发电    71.87                 3357955.40            800376.60             5261335.60            7321052.50            56.80                             公用事业

    600310    桂东电力    62.22                 93005.28             35100.00             141988.11             228211.44             56.13                             公用事业

    000663    永安林业    66.24                 38160.00             19650.00             68567.10             103519.53             55.84                             农林牧渔

    600812    华北制药    81.03                 3500.00             398081.47             585335.38             722406.28             55.59                             医药生物

    600868    梅雁水电    66.41                 413395.59             95997.83             609019.49             917018.44             55.55                             建筑建材

    600722    沧州化工    85.82                 63957.00             161959.27             349334.18             407032.54             55.50                             化工

    600176    中国玻纤    76.12                 122894.38             187500.00             432609.91             568362.26             54.61                             化工

    600706    长安信息    80.03                 30154.62             47642.84             115755.84             144632.19             53.79                             综合

    600552    方兴科技    67.89                 9385.00             30400.00             50225.64             73977.90             53.78                             建筑建材

    000877    天山股份    75.10                 143343.95             99809.96             340899.74             453920.27             53.57                             建筑建材

    000545    吉林制药    96.12                 1730.00             19427.00             37973.93             39505.36             53.55                             医药生物

    600094    华源股份    74.25                 18398.87             244220.06             364591.90             491024.20             53.48                             化工

    600339    天利高新    75.13                 59000.00             83100.00             200620.77             267020.00             53.22                             化工

    600426    华鲁恒升    67.71                 168253.00             5000.00             221355.91             326901.13             53.00                             化工

    000926    福星科技    72.93                 175730.00             68699.00             336467.55             461378.39             52.98                             黑色金属

    000043    深南光A     71.45                 1700.00             99950.00             137723.78             192742.57             52.74                             综合

    600969    郴电国际    61.32                 68924.03             37800.00             124133.40             202447.22             52.72                             公用事业

    600080    金花股份    62.72                 17148.00             87744.36             124958.74             199242.67             52.65                             医药生物

    600798    宁波海运    67.73                 182300.00             27265.00             269731.37             398236.73             52.62                             交通运输

    600620    天宸股份    68.02                 39000.00             39460.00             101908.09             149823.93             52.37                             房地产

    000046    泛海建设    67.87                 130000.00             99844.40             299221.43             440901.69             52.13                             房地产

    600027    华电国际    68.01                 1675648.70            753911.60             3188125.40            4687634.40            51.83                             公用事业

    600986    科达股份    62.04                 21966.17             59150.00             97133.87             156575.45             51.81                             建筑建材

    600699    辽源得亨    71.06                 53350.00             23278.95             105269.10             148149.62             51.72                             化工

    000059    辽通化工    60.33                 104573.03             121350.00             264082.29             437694.39             51.62                             化工

    600828    成商集团    86.04                 2700.00             52980.00             92824.81             107881.14             51.61                             商业贸易

    000601    韶能股份    61.33                 336480.00             34981.17             442014.09             720762.02             51.54                             公用事业

    002098    浔兴股份    67.42                 6509.31             30200.00             48026.28             71233.74             51.53                             纺织服装

    000725    京东方A     74.89                 589054.09             277153.51             1262737.77            1686109.54            51.37                             电子元器件

    600216    浙江医药    69.69                 5294.00             126565.00             179054.90             256948.33             51.32                             医药生物

    600074    中达股份    69.72                 23400.00             224769.00             340395.50             488262.49             50.83                             化工

    600295    鄂尔多斯    59.80                 196625.00             417300.00             723208.20             1209454.72            50.76                             纺织服装

    000910    大亚科技    69.90                 110306.01             189886.18             414159.36             592479.21             50.67                             轻工制造

    000036    华联控股    73.66                 386118.11             155356.61             792141.19             1075356.49            50.35                             化工

    600462    S石纸     76.53                 66077.99             38323.00             159729.97             208713.43             50.02                             轻工制造

    代码     名称        最新一期资产负债情况                                                                                                                             所属行业

                         资产负债率(%)         长期借款             短期借款             负债合计             资产总计             长期借款+短期借款/总资产(%)        

                                                 (万元)             (万元)             (万元)             (万元)                                                    

    600373    鑫新股份    66.80                 7240.00             35583.00             57193.74             85618.92             50.02                             交运设备

    000806    银河科技    61.71                 42129.32             128449.17             210516.98             341140.77             50.00                             电子元器件

    600376    天鸿宝业    79.07                 85000.00             100000.00             293366.42             371029.78             49.86                             房地产

    000600    建投能源    66.73                 86222.32             48650.00             180763.41             270888.73             49.79                             餐饮旅游

    600863    内蒙华电    70.29                 854820.00             162100.00             1435775.07            2042764.70            49.78                             公用事业

    600886    国投电力    61.97                 487058.63             70500.00             695362.57             1122037.57            49.69                             公用事业

    000911    南宁糖业    57.00                 28095.00             110592.00             159986.08             280683.96             49.41                             食品饮料

    000037    深南电A     68.40                 39269.41             222002.28             362066.00             529299.64             49.36                             公用事业

    600660    福耀玻璃    62.33                 260120.00             110263.52             467990.19             750779.91             49.33                             建筑建材

    000712    锦龙股份    67.11                 56116.00             24850.00             110861.29             165189.49             49.01                             纺织服装

    600305    恒顺醋业    72.88                 23585.56             71770.00             141964.21             194788.48             48.95                             食品饮料

    600223    万杰高科    69.61                 21800.00             214701.43             336534.88             483471.81             48.92                             医药生物

    600509    天富热电    82.42                 122181.05             72000.00             327741.67             397647.42             48.83                             公用事业

    000755    山西三维    61.22                 66270.00             101620.00             210828.79             344375.51             48.75                             化工

    600086    东方金钰    50.80                 26000.00             7150.00             34551.13             68016.36             48.74                             纺织服装

    600628    新世界     61.71                 92000.00             89625.00             230096.43             372845.89             48.71                             商业贸易

    000933    神火股份    66.02                 184682.16             97000.00             383483.27             580846.09             48.50                             采掘

    000422    湖北宜化    61.22                 185440.00             41200.00             288739.14             471621.78             48.06                             化工

    002078    太阳纸业    74.34                 72735.82             193646.91             412492.62             554850.42             48.01                             轻工制造

    600221    海南航空    77.22                 1146975.07            495873.82             2645727.58            3426306.73            47.95                             交通运输

    000721    西安饮食    61.72                 16282.28             27800.00             56906.41             92198.02             47.81                             餐饮旅游

    000720    鲁能泰山    62.53                 4845.00             194176.20             260918.64             417250.24             47.70                             公用事业

    000522    白云山A     73.16                 2850.00             130050.00             205537.73             280930.62             47.31                             医药生物

    600757    S华源发     78.13                 25695.00             153507.72             297067.13             380217.88             47.13                             纺织服装

    600401    江苏申龙    59.62                 6536.14             47000.00             68035.23             114119.44             46.91                             轻工制造

    000060    中金岭南    62.03                 33000.00             251700.00             378954.89             610958.75             46.60                             有色金属

    000514    渝开发     70.89                 36800.00             8000.00             68271.26             96310.82             46.52                             房地产

    600336    澳柯玛     78.78                 8300.00             209247.54             368570.69             467820.26             46.50                             家用电器

    000999    S三九     64.54                 3219.12             320056.67             450809.27             698545.18             46.28                             医药生物

    600351    亚宝药业    66.89                 16199.53             30500.00             67573.96             101027.50             46.22                             医药生物

    600538    北海国发    55.95                 4013.86             54040.00             70616.77             126223.42             45.99                             医药生物

    600693    东百集团    64.35                 3572.00             46459.00             70083.55             108916.89             45.94                             商业贸易

    000683    天然碱     65.79                 32497.00             78423.47             158948.45             241582.26             45.91                             化工

    002088    鲁阳股份    67.06                 15024.00             14400.00             43038.51             64175.48             45.85                             化工

    600301    南化股份    59.53                 16329.00             55766.00             93737.90             157463.95             45.79                             化工

    600477    杭萧钢构    76.97                 33780.00             89210.00             208168.71             270450.43             45.48                             机械设备

    600163    福建南纸    60.43                 45110.77             90720.00             181350.25             300107.04             45.26                             轻工制造

    000960    锡业股份    58.56                 4093.67             189553.64             250597.04             427898.07             45.26                             有色金属

    002072    德棉股份    61.69                 14298.26             39116.97             72858.18             118106.77             45.23                             纺织服装

    600533    栖霞建设    64.54                 136385.00             81500.00             311095.15             482038.30             45.20                             房地产

    600736    苏州高新    69.93                 85000.00             202900.00             447269.24             639637.89             45.01                             房地产

    600235    民丰特纸    60.83                 16634.09             88452.86             142071.88             233569.66             44.99                             轻工制造

    000533    万家乐     83.31                 3800.00             119317.41             228366.02             274131.99             44.91                             家用电器

    600888    新疆众和    62.79                 45739.48             14500.00             84499.14             134577.54             44.76                             有色金属

    600198    大唐电信    74.40                 23000.00             172304.45             324804.63             436538.58             44.74                             信息设备

    600894    广钢股份    68.04                 61300.00             158285.10             336480.51             494530.39             44.40                             黑色金属

    000676    思达高科    66.72                 2700.00             64140.34             100679.65             150888.13             44.30                             机械设备

    000900    现代投资    49.24                 70000.00             154000.00             249768.16             507266.05             44.16                             交通运输

    600591    上海航空    80.86                 272571.27             196272.30             859057.79             1062436.52            44.13                             交通运输

    000695    滨海能源    61.77                 24000.00             21000.00             63005.26             101999.76             44.12                             公用事业