中集集团（000039）：集龙头、绩优、增长于一体

　　在3000点以上能够供基金等大资金配置的，仍具备显著估值空间的股票已经不多，中集集团应是其中之一。该股继续被机构投资者看好，一是基于其行业世界龙头的绝对地位，在行情景气度高的时候，龙头具有最佳的增长性，在行业景气度平淡的时候，龙头具有最好的防御性；二是基于中集因车辆业务的迅速增长，使公司在继续保持优异业绩的前提下，仍将保持稳健的增长率。集合龙头、绩优、增长的三大要素于一体，这样的公司股票自然是机构投资者的厚爱。

评级机构                                                                                                                                                     评级日期     股票评级    投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EPS （元）                     估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                06年         07年     08年        

东方证券                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    增持        公司正围绕物流装备寻求新的高增长引擎，如铁路车辆等，预计2009 年后有望在新的高增长引擎拉动下步入下一个高增长周期。                                                                                                                     1.25         1.29     1.38    32.16

                                                                                                                                                                                         预计公司未来三年净利润的复合增长率为7.18%，股权激励和新物流装备业务的拓展是公司股价的催化剂。                                                                                                                                                                            

申银万国                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    增持        车辆行业扩张步伐未停止，2007年车辆行业布局还将是公司投资的重头戏，随着车辆业务贡献比例不断上升，2008 年之后，中集的业绩增速可能加快，甚至超过其他类上市公司。                                                                         1.25         1.40     1.58    ----

招商证券                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    强烈推荐    预计2007年中集集团车辆业务的销售将增长50%以上。不容质疑，过去三年中集集团对车辆业务的并购和整合是成功的，未来也相信中集可以将车辆业务再做成一个世界第一。                                                                             1.25         1.65     1.94    28.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~33.00

国信证券                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    谨慎推荐    未来两年，稳定快速发展的车辆业务对赢利贡献比例将进一步上升，预计2007、2008年分别占净利润27%、35%，成长性弱而波动性大的干货箱业务将逐渐下降。公司2006年业绩扣除非经常性损益实际下降14.7%，为历史低谷，未来2 年将快速上升。             1.25         1.53     1.85    30.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~35.00

中信证券                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    买入        预计半挂车仍有望保持50%以上的增长，毛利率也继续提高，对利润贡献比重也就由目前的25%上升到29%左右，继续成为公司主要的增长亮点。预计2007 年干货箱价格将提高至1800美元/TEU 以上，公司集装箱的整体毛利率将由2006年12..44%上升至13%以上。    1.25         1.53     1.69    30.60

银河证券                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    推荐        2007年一季度集装箱销售超过去年同期，以往一季度是销售淡季，但今年淡季不淡，销售和盈利水平超预期。车辆业务方面，公司将进一步完善产业基地布局，大力发展主流产品。                                                                         1.25         1.55     1.80    31.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~36.00

渤海证券                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/19    推荐        预计集装箱业务平稳增长，产品结构进一步优化；道路运输车辆业务进入快速成长期，盈利能力逐渐增强，                                                                                                                                         1.25         1.17     1.32    25.70

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~29.30

天相投顾                                                                                                                                                     2007/03/21    增持        预计未来4至5年之内，国内半挂车市场将保持20%左右的增长。2007年半挂车业务在公司主营业务构成的比例有望升至30%，08年该可接近40%，并与干货箱业务比重持平。                                                                                 1.25         1.29     1.40    ----

业绩预测与估值的均值（元）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1.25         1.426    1.62    31.13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

（1）航运周期波动和集装箱产能过渡释放，会给公司集装箱业务带来冲击；（2）公司半挂车业务毛利率已高达17.85%，高于行业平均毛利率约10 个百分点，未来有走低压力。