• 1:大智慧
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      2007 年 4 月 15 日
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      | 5版:大智慧
    资金看好三大新动力股
    申银万国研究报告认为: 春季行情判断 四月看涨 五月调整
    淘金底部区域股 预增蓝筹成首选
    招商证券研究报告认为:把握牛市业绩浪 投身资产注入潮
    港口股:业绩呈现良性上升态势
    整体上市:进入主力机构配置名单
    农业板块:新多资金的选择目标
    晨鸣纸业(000488):内外兼修 稳健增长
    一周强势股排行榜
    军工板块活跃趋势不改
    中铁二局:上升空间已经打开
    时代新材:成交量持续放大
    银河证券研究报告认为:市场基本不存在估值泡沫
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
    强者恒强·追涨者乐园
    晋亿实业:结束整理重拾升势
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    晨鸣纸业(000488):内外兼修 稳健增长
    2007年04月15日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      在当前,具有内生与外生双重增长潜力的公司已经成为机构投资者选择的重点,晨鸣纸业即是其中之一。该公司内生增长是得益于成本压力与财务费用的下降,外生增长则基于湛江项目的预期。同时,湛江项目为该股增添了林业的资源性优势,从而提升了该股的估值标准。业绩内外兼修的稳健增长与估值标准提升的双重潜力,是打开该股估值空间的主要依据。

    评级机构                                                                                                                         评级日期     股票         投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         EPS (元)                        估值

                                                                                                                                                    评级                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 06年         07年     08年        

    申银万国                                                                                                                         2007/04/09    增持         未来可能催化剂:1、造纸行业07 年下半年有望转暖;2、湛江项目将提升公司林浆纸一体化进程,产业链上游延伸可大幅降低制浆成本,解决公司的原材料瓶颈问题,提升公司的竞争力;3、发行H 股既可缓解公司的资金需求问题。此外,由职工出资设立的锐丰投资和高管、相关骨干出资设立的恒联投资对上市公司持股形成了激励机制。                                                                                         ----

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.44         0.64     0.73        

    东方证券                                                                                                                         2007/04/09    买入         07-08年业绩增长来自行业景气回升及公司产能释放。07年开始国际浆价将进入下降通道,造纸成本压力将有所缓解;国内造纸投资的减缓及产能的逐步释放将公司设备利用率提高,单个纸品的获利能力也有望提高。                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.44         0.50     0.55     12.80

    海通证券                                                                                                                         2007/04/10    中性         07 年和08年业绩稳定的原因为新增产能收益会被毛利率下降所抵消。09年之后业绩稳定主要依据为湛江项目的桉木成本尚无法锁定,该项目收益目前还存在一定的不确定性。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ----     ----

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.44         0.51                    

    国信证券                                                                                                                         2007/04/10    推荐         经测算,公司07年初纸业内在价值为5.69 元/股,对应07P/E=11.5X;湛江林浆业务内在价值为6.56 元/股,使公司综合的07P/E 提升至25.7X。湛江林浆业务的价值已经超过了纸业业务,并仍将继续拉开与纸业价值的差值。                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.44         0.64     0.71     13.30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ~

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     14.20

    平安证券                                                                                                                         2007/04/10    推荐         湛江项目的推进将有效解决公司上游原材料问题,是公司不断完善国内布局并推进林纸浆一体化战略的综合表现。目前,木浆项目于2007年上半年土建开工。估计浆厂项目建设为3年,预计销售收入可达32 亿元,利润10 亿元;原料林基地的建设期为5年,年均销售收入4 亿元,可实现利润1亿元左右。湛江项目推动公司未来业绩增长的同时,还会拥有资源掌握上游原材料而有效提升公司价值。                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.44         0.60     0.69     ----

    上海证券                                                                                                                         2007/04/10    跑赢大市     作为国内最大的综合类造纸上市企业,公司的主营收入随产能扩张持续增长,但由于上游原料的限制使公司的毛利水平下降,净利增长远低于主营收入增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.44         0.64     0.72     11.50

    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.44         0.588     0.68     12.68

    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     21.48         16.07     13.90        

    风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    可转债转股以及发行H 股对公司EPS 的摊薄,特别在2009 年前由于湛江项目无法贡献业绩,将对公司EPS产生净摊薄;公司纸机项目低于预期。