• 1:大智慧
  • 2:大智慧
  • 3:大智慧
  • 4:大智慧
  • 5:大智慧
  • 6:大智慧
  • 7:大智慧
  • 8:个股点评
  •  
      2007 年 4 月 29 日
    前一天  后一天  
    按日期查找
    5版:大智慧
    上一版  下一版  
    pdf
     
     
      | 5版:大智慧
    金融板块受宠 注资题材有戏
    平安证券研究报告认为:关注股权激励下的投资机会
    大资金猛攻 三类本地股
    平安证券研究报告认为:基金持仓趋向集中
    航空股:黄金周激发上涨热情
    A+H整体上市:聚变效应显现
    参股券商板块:强势有望延续
    中海发展(600026):行业新景气打开估值新空间
    一周强势股排行榜
    参股券商板块喜获双重利好
    华联股份:保持震荡上升趋势
    天宸股份:向上突破欲望强烈
    兴业证券研究报告认为:善用长假效应适当逢高调仓
    中投证券研究报告认为:操作中要逐步降低持股比重
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
    强者恒强·追涨者乐园
    东方明珠:新一轮行情启动
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
    上海证券报网络版郑重声明
        经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (8621-38967758、fanwg@cnstock.com ) 。

     
      本版导航 | 版面导航 | 标题导航 收藏 | 打印 | 推荐  
     
    中海发展(600026):行业新景气打开估值新空间
    2007年04月29日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      近期,国际航运指数再创新高,预示着航运股的春天又将来临,这种行业景气度提升对相应公司股票价格最直接的效用就是估值标准的抬高,从而打开股价进一步上涨的空间。就中海发展来看,无论是从静态角度,还是从机构深度研究报告所预测的动态角度,其行情都是相对被低估的。而行业的新景气则有望成为行情的催化剂。

    评级机构                                                                 评级日期     股票评级    投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             EPS (元)                     估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             06年         07年     08年        

    银河证券                                                                 2007/04/20    谨慎推荐    从1月份开始,国际航运组织TSA将海运价格提高15%,国际BDI指数和国内CCBFI和CCFI指数呈现持续上升趋势。中海发展已订购了大量的海洋运输船,同时也继续收购母公司的散货船,预计将分别在2007 年到2010年完成,年平均运输能力将增长20%左右。                                                                                                                                        0.83         1.05     ----     18.50~

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             21.00

    申银万国                                                                 2007/04/20    增持        未来三年公司税前利润复合增长在20%以上,明显好于目前海外市场油轮和干散货公司业绩普遍下降的预期。与国内同行公司相比,公司估值最低。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.83         1.20     1.26     19.20

    东方证券                                                                 2007/04/17    买入        作为定位清晰的能源运输公司,中海发展除了积极扩大油轮船队以分享国油国运带来的需求大幅增长外,同时与大货主合作,提高煤炭运输能力,两条腿走路使得中海发展的抗周期能力更强。中海发展切入另一个前景广阔的铁矿石进口运输市场,通过与客户签订长期协议,锁定了这部分业务的利润。相对目前20%的原油进口运输份额,中国船东在本国铁矿石进口运输中的份额仅为5%,潜力显而易见。    0.83         1.17     1.35     25.00

    中信证券                                                                 2007/04/16    买入        公司定位为能源运输公司;集团培育的LNG(液化天然气)运输业务可能于2009年底带来收入,注入上市公司也可能于2009年。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.83         1.20     1.35     19.20

    联合证券                                                                 2007/04/16    增持        目前仅有5%的进口铁矿石由中国船东来承运,因此未来中国航商的铁矿石业务空间非常广阔。目前公司为首钢、宝钢订造了4 艘VLOC,未来公司将会订造更多的VLOC。这种有固定回报率的业务将成为未来重要的价值创造点。未来发展前景相当光明的LNG 运输业务也会在适当时机注入上市公司。大股东有做股权激励的打算,是公司一大潜在利好。                                                     0.83         1.20     1.32     24.00

    国泰君安                                                                 2007/04/16    增持        优势一是集团公司在运力增加和业务上给予中海发展巨大支持,公司利用集团收购的造船厂解决了运力增加问题;优势二是公司内贸和外贸业务的结合,散货运输和油轮运输的结合可以抵御一定行业波动的风险;优势三是公司与大货主签订合作协议锁定运量和运价,降低行业波动的风险。海外航运股指数和估值水平上涨,为公司重新估值提供支持。                                                 0.83         1.20     1.32     22.00

    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.83         1.17     1.32     21.53

    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 55.95         34.31    24.48        

    风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    国际运价指数和油价波动,以及未来运力可能过剩影响等都将影响股价的涨跌。