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      2007 年 7 月 1 日
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      | 5版:大智慧
    新生热点在资金撤退中显现
    申银万国研究报告认为:QDII放开短期无碍流动性
    平安证券研究报告认为:3700 点附近进场机会来临
    抗跌股:弱势中的“避风港”
    中金公司研究报告认为:调控措施难以改变股价上涨趋势
    天相投顾研究报告认为:后市将以结构性调整方式盘整
    华泰股份(600308):被显著低估的价值股
    一周强势股排行榜
    调整市道 关注防御型品种
    中国远洋:机构席位大举建仓
    海泰发展:强势整理接近尾声
    五粮液:主力运作迹象明显
    大资金争抢 两类超跌股
    整体上市板块:估值优势犹存
    中报预期概念:新资金重点关注
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
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    华泰股份(600308):被显著低估的价值股
    2007年07月01日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

      在目前个股分化的行情中,防御性策略注重的是绩优成长、二线蓝筹、估值低廉;激进型策略注重的是资产注入、整体上市、收购兼并等。以这些共同的标准来搜索所有上市公司,华泰股份无疑当选。这也是近期该股被多家机构投资者一致看好的主要原因,以机构估值的均值看,该股尚有超过30%幅度的价值空间,是当前为数不多被低估的价值型股票。

    评级机构                                                                                                                                         评级日期     股票评级    投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        EPS (元)                     估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             07年         08年     09年        

    中金公司                                                                                                                                         2007/06/27    推荐        公司收购的化工资产盈利好于预期,上半年有望实现盈利0.85亿元,估计全年可实现盈利1.5亿元。国内新闻纸行业供需情况由于出口业务的开拓已出现好转,新闻纸价格年初以来已出现良好的上涨势头,年初飙升的废纸价格也已开始回落,公司新纸机已满负荷运转。                                                                     1.15         ----     ----     34.50

    平安证券                                                                                                                                         2007/06/26    推荐        通过定向增发购买集团所拥有的东营协发化工有限公司100%股权、东营华泰纸业化工有限责任公司100%股权、东营华泰精细化工有限责任公司100%股权、东营华泰热力有限责任公司100%股权及前述标的公司生产经营中使用的5宗土地使用权共18.91万平方米。是公司迈出资产整合以及集团整体上市的第一步,有利于减少关联交易且提升盈利。    1.10         1.30     ----     ----

    申银万国                                                                                                                                         2007/06/26    增持        化工资产的注入将较大幅度提升公司的业绩。预计该资产2007年有望实现1.5亿左右的净利润,加之集团承诺将该资产自评估基准日至资产交割日之间产生的盈利全部归于股份公司享有,则预计化工业务2007年将为公司贡献约1.7亿左右的净利润。                                                                                        1.15         1.37     1.57     ----

    国信证券                                                                                                                                         2007/06/26    推荐        林浆纸一体化项目获国家发改委核准,在原料林建设方式上,公司更强调原料的有效供给,可能采取合作与自营相结合的模式,这种模式的盈利能力介于一体化和准一体化之间,会明显地提高现有纸业业务的盈利能力。                                                                                                                1.23         1.53     1.72     33.60~

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             36.60

    广法证券                                                                                                                                         2007/06/19    买入        国家发改委已批准华泰45 万吨铜版纸、60 万亩速生林的总投资56 亿元的项目,这无疑将提升公司价值。另外,公司正积极争取安庆200万亩松树的一体化项目。                                                                                                                                                                 1.17         1.26     1.32     30.00

    上海证券                                                                                                                                         2007/06/15    跑赢大市    公司作为国内新闻纸龙头企业,成本、规模优势明显,经营素质优异,已具备国际竞争力。产能扩张推动业绩持续增长,同时上游资源建设的全面启动将进一步提升公司价值,集团化工资产的注入实现产业链延伸提升盈利。                                                                                                            1.16         1.38     ----     32.30

    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.16         1.368    1.537    32.98

    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 21.55         18.27    16.27        

    风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    (1)收购的资产中期是否能够顺利并表具有不确定性;(2)上游项目能否全面取得成效存在一定不确定性;(3)上游项目资金需求较大,考验公司融资能力。