工商银行是我国最大的银行，也一度超过花旗银行成为世界上最大市值的银行股，工行在市值上超过花期的潜在因素是：工行去年的增长率是30%，按照今年一季度年化的利润增长率是50%，这样的增长幅度对工行这样的大银行来说，就全世界来看也是不可思议的，与工行相比，花旗银行去年则是负增长。除存贷差外，银行的中间业务有三块：手续费收入、保险等综合经营收入、交易性收入。由于受制于分业经营的业态与资本市场的发展，我国银行对于后两项业务尚未开展，但正是这"两块短板"赋予了我国具有竞争力的大银行在将来还有更为显著的成长空间，及其长久的投资价值。

评级机构                                                                                评级日期     股票评级    投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EPS （元）                     估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                07年         08年     09年        

兴业证券                                                                                2007/07/11    强烈推荐    作为中国最大的银行，公司网点优势为各项业务的发展提供了强大的综合平台。                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.22         0.29     0.37     -----

                                                                                                                 由于贷款形成率较低加上持续的清收核销措施，公司不良贷款将继续双降。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

海通证券                                                                                2007/07/10    中性        07年上半年由于资本市场爆发式增长，工商银行相关手续费收入增速明显提高，主要体现在代理业务，托管业务和理财业务等收入上，预测全年手续费收入将呈现较高增长。                                                                                                                                     0.23         0.27     0.31     5.90

银河证券                                                                                2007/07/09    推荐        公司利润增长体现各个方面：（1）加息有利于贷款息差收益的扩大；（2）资金面抽紧有利于同业业务收益率提高；（3）较短的债券组合久期，使公司有更多机会投资高收益债券产品；（4）高速增长的中间业务收入是公司新利润增长点；（5）资产质量向好降低了拨备计提压力；（6）人民币升值，外汇期权价值增值。    0.23         0.35     0.43     6.39

渤海证券                                                                                2007/07/03    强烈推荐    公司目前正在建设多层次的服务体系，包括一般营业网点、VIP理财中心、电话银行、网上银行地等。预计将在3年内建设3000家VIP理财中心，有利于公司对目标客户群的有效分流，从而提升其整体服务水平。                                                                                                     0.21         0.28     ----     6.30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ~6.60

东方证券                                                                                2007/07/03    增持        工行正在基于长期可持续的战略推进各项业务，将更多倾斜于中小企业信贷、消费金融、贸易金融等受经济周期波动影响较小的业务。上半年公司在各业务条线均取得了不错的成绩，并对未来业务空间有乐观预期。                                                                                                 0.20         0.22     0.27     5.45

中金公司                                                                                207/07/03     审慎推荐    07 年和08 年市净率分别为3.23倍和2.88倍，市盈率分别为24.1倍和18.4 倍，下跌风险不大，是市场波动中较好的避险品种。而且，工商银行拥有中国最为庞大的网络覆盖和客户基础，可以充分享受中国经济梯度发展带来的可持续增长。                                                                             0.21         0.27     ----     ----

业绩预测与估值的均值（元）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.217         0.280    0.345    6.05

目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     24.88         19.29    15.65        

风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

（1）存款分流波动大，增加了银行资金利用的难度；（2）金融服务等业务的竞争能力还不强。