新疆天业（600075）：平淡行业中的明星企业

　　大多数市场人士认为：真正的好股并不一定追求涨停，重要的是要持久稳健地上涨。如果以此标准，新疆天业应该是个典型。好股不急涨而稳健地慢涨的原因，是此类股票往往是随上市公司价值增长而缓慢上涨，即其行情的核心因素是建立于公司基本面，而不是题材概念下的投机炒作。新疆天业不处于明星行业，也不属于景气行业，但其煤炭、电力、化工一体化的产业链在行业内具备了独树一帜的优势，完全符合平淡行业中明星企业的标准，这样的公司大多是机构投资者的厚爱。

评级机构                                                                                                                                                                                    评级日期     股票评级    投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EPS （元）                     估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    07年         08年     09年        

中信证券                                                                                                                                                                                    2007/08/08    买入        国家推广节能减排导致氯碱行业成本上升，进而推动产品价格上涨。而新疆天业“煤电化”一体化模式下，电、电石等原料自给率高，新疆稳定低廉煤价保证集团关联电价优惠稳定。因此公司成本上升有限，氯碱业务带动整体盈利能力提升。一体化和循环经济构筑公司核心竞争力，节能减排保证公司盈利能力不降反升。                                                                                    0.73         0.84     ----     25.20

招商证券                                                                                                                                                                                    2007/08/08    强烈推荐    公司具备从煤矿、盐矿和石灰石矿到电厂到电石厂到氯碱一体化优势过程中获取最大利益的条件。目前天业集团正在建设40万吨PVC 产能，在最上游的煤炭资源上面，集团公司也在抓紧布局，目前正在为一个储量达几亿吨的煤矿开展审批。一旦这些项目均投产以后，集团公司将拥有40 万吨的PVC，64 万吨的电石，74 万千瓦发电的能力。这些资产的价值或者说是盈利能力，是目前股份公司拥有资产的2-3 倍。    0.66         0.76     0.80     22.00

申银万国                                                                                                                                                                                    2007/08/08    增持        新疆天业的核心竞争力是成本优势，而成本优势来源于新疆丰富的煤炭资源与低廉的煤炭价格，以及新疆天业及集团完整的产业链，可有效规避原材料价格上涨风险；在本轮PVC 价格上涨中盈利能力大幅提高。                                                                                                                                                                                     0.75         0.83     0.91     25.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     退税率降低并不能阻挡PVC 由净进口国向净出口国转变的趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

东方证券                                                                                                                                                                                    2007/08/08    中性        在氯碱行业中产业链最完整，成为氯碱行业中电石自供能力最强的上市公司。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.70         0.67     ----     16.00

业绩预测与估值的均值（元）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.71         0.775    0.855    22.05

目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         25.49         23.35    21.17        

风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

（1）产品价格上涨与盈利能力变化背离明显；（2）公司业绩对聚氯乙烯价格波敏感性较强；（3）2007年中期应收账款账龄有陈化迹象；（4）与母公司电力关联交易金额巨大，影响对公司利润预测的准确性。