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  • A1:市 场
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  • A3:基金
  • A4:金融
  • A5:金融·机构
  • A6:货币·债券
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  • C1:理财
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      2007 年 8 月 15 日
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    关注大市值个股 寻找具有估值优势品种
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    关注大市值个股 寻找具有估值优势品种
    2007年08月15日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      ⊙天相投顾 王巍峰

      

      8月1日,在周边市场大幅下挫和短线资金获利回吐影响下,上证指数大跌170点,之后的六个交易日,沪指连收阳线,8月9日收盘突破4700点,当日沪深两市总市值突破21万亿元,超过了2006年国内生产总值。我们注意到,这一波的上涨大盘蓝筹股表现明显强于市场整体。天相风格指数显示, 8月1日到8月9日期间,上证指数上涨10.55%,同时期大盘指数上涨14.16%,强于上证指数3.06个百分点,而中盘指数和小盘指数的走势均弱于上证指数;这一期间大市值指数累计涨幅达11.77%,强于同时期上证指数的涨幅,比小市值指数涨幅高出4.55个百分点。

      大盘新一轮的上涨是从7月6日开始的,截至8月10日,上证指数较7月份的最低点上涨了31.35%,同时期大市值指数累计上涨幅度为33.80%,高于上证指数涨幅2.45个百分点。规模大的公司一般都是行业内的龙头企业,相对具有规模优势,盈利增长比较稳定,而业绩持续稳定的增长对其股价上涨会起到支撑作用。

      我们把沪深A股按流通市值排名,除去ST公司,选累计流通市值前50%的个股作为大市值股票。符合条件的股票共有115只,主要分布于金融、有色、房地产、钢铁、电力等行业。流通市值前五位中有四家属于金融行业,按流通市值排序分别是中信证券、招商银行、浦发银行、民生银行,这四家公司流通市值均超过1000亿元,前五位中另一家公司为万科,是一家房地产上市公司,流通市值高达1725亿远,紧随中信证券之后居第二名。这115家公司中,流通市值低于200亿的公司有62家,占大市值个股总数的比例为53.45%,流通市值最小的是7月份新上市的南京银行,不过流通市值也超过了100亿元。我们看到,这些股票中2007年以来涨幅超过100%的有90只,占比78.45%,其中48只股票的涨幅超过了200%。大市值股票中2007年以来涨幅最小的前三名为工商银行、中国银行、华闻传媒,涨幅均在10%以内。

      我们考虑到上市公司近几年的业绩增长等基本面情况,采用PEG(市盈率/近三年净利润复合增长率)对大市值股进行估值,发现虽然经过这一轮上涨,仍然存在一些价值低估的大市值股票,主要集中在有色、钢铁、交运等行业,投资者不妨多加关注。

      大市值个股基本面及市场表现一览

    代码     名称        收盘价(元)(0810)    涨幅(%)                 流通市值            基金持股占流通股比例(%)    每股收益(06年报)    市盈率(倍)[06年报净利]    近三年复合增长率(%)    PEG     行业

                                             (0101-0810)             (万元)                                                                                                                        

    601988    中国银行    5.81                7.85                    3,030,936         0.31                     0.1700             35.20                     13.43                 2.62     金融

    601398    工商银行    6.69                8.32                    6,004,230         3.79                     0.1500             45.87                     29.61                 1.55     金融

    000793    华闻传媒    9.79                8.54                    1,142,520         -                         0.0500             204.59                    -188.07                -        传媒

    601333    广深铁路    8.78                23.22                 1,520,949         0.44                     0.1004             87.49                     11.02                 7.94     铁路运输

    600887    伊利股份    32.88             24.48                 1,546,804         12.39                     0.6700             49.28                     19.96                 2.47     食品

    600018    上港集团    9.60                38.54                 2,191,648         -                         0.1412             68.00                     43.76                 1.55     航运业

    600832    东方明珠    16.84             47.33                 1,635,909         1.15                     0.2080             80.94                     15.58                 5.19     传媒

    000063    中兴通讯    57.78             48.19                 2,691,260         24.37                     0.8400             68.67                     2.37                 28.94    通信

    600050    中国联通    6.97                51.05                 5,792,306         4.00                     0.1700             40.54                     16.13                 2.51     通信

    600583    海油工程    44.20             53.31                 2,130,959         9.68                     0.9400             56.21                     56.11                 1.00     建筑业

    600001    邯郸钢铁    6.89                60.23                 1,728,197         0.76                     0.3210             21.69                     12.61                 1.72     钢铁

    600519    贵州茅台    139.96             60.33                 5,898,274         30.87                     1.5900             87.82                     36.86                 2.38     食品

    601328    交通银行    13.00             64.56                 1,990,777         0.50                     0.2800             50.27                     -                     -        金融

    600028    中国石化    15.15             67.38                 5,429,760         14.78                     0.5840             25.93                     38.64                 0.67     石化

    600016    民生银行    14.90             73.81                 11,186,957         15.95                     0.3800             56.30                     40.17                 1.40     金融

    000792    盐湖钾肥    40.36             75.28                 1,640,528         19.30                     1.0578             38.15                     102.79                 0.37     化工

    600276    恒瑞医药    44.11             78.60                 1,131,900         30.90                     0.6230             92.01                     29.79                 3.09     医药

    600585    海螺水泥    55.00             84.00                 1,416,669         22.68                     1.1400             60.33                     24.52                 2.46     建材

    600690    青岛海尔    17.17             88.09                 1,357,228         15.69                     0.2620             65.44                     -194.76                -        家电

    601998    中信银行    10.94             88.62                 1,927,470         0.91                     0.1200             114.61                    -                     -        金融

    600019    宝钢股份    16.02             90.06                 6,181,738         22.36                     0.7400             21.56                     23.09                 0.93     钢铁

    600900    长江电力    18.31             90.84                 8,041,849         17.18                     0.4420             47.62                     36.04                 1.32     电力

    600879    XD火箭股    29.39             90.97                 1,140,557         14.16                     0.4400             74.14                     20.79                 3.57     机械

    000039    中集集团    30.10             94.03                 2,459,212         25.49                     1.2500             28.91                     59.53                 0.49     机械

    000858    五 粮 液    32.49             99.39                 4,882,123         18.14                     0.4320             105.40                    18.51                 5.69     食品

    601009    南京银行    22.40             103.64                 1,095,728         -                         0.4900             -                         -                     -        金融

    600037    歌华有线    31.80             105.29                 1,911,236         18.58                     0.6500             77.93                     22.36                 3.48     传媒

    600011    华能国际    13.00             105.81                 3,390,459         0.87                     0.4600             28.24                     0.57                 49.87    电力

    600015    华夏银行    15.10             106.28                 2,619,290         7.36                     0.3500             43.53                     22.04                 1.97     金融

    600009    上海机场    39.51             108.94                 3,892,790         25.81                     0.7900             50.31                     32.97                 1.53     民航业

    600000    浦发银行    44.59             110.11                 14,737,949         27.80                     0.7700             57.91                     28.89                 2.00     金融

    601006    大秦铁路    16.79             110.91                 3,531,841         12.58                     0.3400             49.85                     41.97                 1.19     铁路运输

    600320    振华港机    25.06             114.79                 3,010,922         2.63                     0.5200             48.19                     79.37                 0.61     机械

    600143    金发科技    43.05             115.85                 1,233,386         33.38                     0.9600             92.57                     49.14                 1.88     化工

    000895    双汇发展    45.15             116.65                 1,361,231         33.75                     0.8900             59.94                     20.07                 2.99     食品

    600309    烟台万华    37.50             117.09                 3,168,545         39.99                     0.7000             75.52                     52.63                 1.43     化工

    600839    四川长虹    9.25                120.92                 1,255,107         -                         0.1610             57.40                     14.14                 4.06     家电

    000568    泸州老窖    56.00             120.99                 2,178,752         42.03                     0.3900             144.97                    100.37                 1.44     食品

    600036    招商银行    36.34             123.22                 17,003,635         48.77                     0.4800             75.18                     47.17                 1.59     金融

    600694    大商股份    66.00             126.12                 1,426,485         48.11                     0.8800             75.00                     45.65                 1.64     商业

    600642    申能股份    16.61             131.26                 2,337,306         0.71                     0.6270             26.50                     16.86                 1.57     电力

    600631    百联股份    21.80             131.70                 1,488,874         0.42                     0.2400             89.48                     56.49                 1.58     商业

    600664    S哈药     15.46             132.83                 1,277,032         -                         0.3700             41.60                     11.68                 3.56     医药

    000825    太钢不锈    23.27             133.35                 2,440,373         24.86                     0.9110             33.21                     58.34                 0.57     钢铁

    000024    招商地产    66.20             134.31                 2,121,754         30.79                     0.9180             85.58                     19.78                 4.33     房地产开发

    601588    北辰实业    15.61             134.39                 1,565,600         -                         0.1000             156.81                    13.85                 11.32    房地产开发

    600660    福耀玻璃    34.31             134.74                 1,633,704         33.48                     0.6100             56.59                     23.68                 2.39     汽车及配件

    002024    苏宁电器    53.93             137.58                 3,959,278         52.84                     1.0000             107.93                    93.84                 1.15     商业

    600005    武钢股份    14.78             139.26                 4,035,610         27.44                     0.4970             29.73                     89.88                 0.33     钢铁

    000402    金 融 街    40.58             144.12                 2,764,244         22.06                     0.4900             83.28                     36.31                 2.29     园区土地开发

    600649    原水股份    13.85             145.66                 1,588,905         -                         0.2985             46.39                     9.43                 4.92     供水供气

    600010    包钢股份    7.65                146.86                 2,070,085         -                         0.1900             39.68                     4.95                 8.01     钢铁

    600795    国电电力    15.18             147.71                 1,557,524         -                         0.4110             38.64                     14.02                 2.76     电力

    000932    华菱管线    10.38             148.01                 1,139,348         -                         0.4864             21.55                     12.04                 1.79     钢铁

    601628    中国人寿    48.02             155.21                 4,410,000         26.04                     0.3400             141.37                    115.15                 1.23     金融

    601919    中国远洋    21.70             155.90                 1,935,495         12.06                     0.2000             158.25                    -                     -        航运业

    600026    中海发展    27.73             171.26                 1,236,659         16.91                     0.8301             33.41                     41.13                 0.81     航运业

    600383    金地集团    49.49             171.48                 2,204,618         22.14                     0.6700             93.26                     39.07                 2.39     房地产开发

    代码     名称        收盘价(元)(0810)    涨幅(%)                 流通市值            基金持股占流通股比例(%)    每股收益(06年报)    市盈率(倍)[06年报净利]    近三年复合增长率(%)    PEG     行业

                                             (0101-0810)             (万元)                                                                                                                        

    000069    华侨城A    59.88             173.68                 3,071,511         43.16                     0.5230             114.55                    36.24                 3.16     房地产开发

    600030    中信证券    77.00             182.19                 17,289,135         23.19                     0.8000             96.82                     86.50                 1.12     金融

    601318    中国平安    95.39             183.06                 7,643,475         46.77                     0.9700             117.05                    41.65                 2.81     金融

    000157    中联重科    42.55             187.49                 1,841,116         22.73                     0.9485             67.29                     27.73                 2.43     机械

    000898    鞍钢股份    28.78             190.37                 3,132,803         17.66                     1.1540             24.95                     68.43                 0.36     钢铁

    600601    方正科技    8.04                191.46                 1,365,651         -                         0.1900             75.28                     9.75                 7.72     计算机硬件

    000046    泛海建设    54.86             193.37                 1,258,033         3.29                     0.3400             161.51                    91.04                 1.77     房地产开发

    601111    中国国航    15.07             194.02                 1,803,311         9.46                     0.2600             57.85                     145.60                 0.40     民航业

    000423    东阿阿胶    29.33             199.95                 1,224,111         24.51                     0.3800             99.85                     16.70                 5.98     医药

    600104    上海汽车    24.35             200.00                 3,605,630         16.59                     0.2180             111.95                    -197.94                -        汽车及配件

    601166    兴业银行    47.96             202.78                 3,366,202         32.47                     0.9500             63.13                     38.36                 1.65     金融

    000060    中金岭南    47.01             204.28                 1,989,684         7.28                     1.7100             30.30                     166.16                 0.18     有色

    000651    格力电器    36.46             207.16                 1,891,099         17.48                     0.7800             46.75                     23.03                 2.03     家电

    600895    张江高科    21.27             209.49                 1,306,515         15.30                     0.1800             116.33                    8.13                 14.30    园区土地开发

    600497    驰宏锌锗    86.00             210.40                 1,683,517         -                         5.3152             32.36                     204.92                 0.16     有色

    000629    攀钢钢钒    11.06             212.52                 1,666,165         -                         0.3200             41.52                     12.12                 3.43     钢铁

    600219    南山铝业    28.38             215.68                 1,429,280         30.17                     0.2800             216.40                    4.95                 43.69    有色

    000001    深发展A    39.00             216.28                 6,202,301         19.61                     0.6700             62.46                     60.26                 1.04     金融

    600717    天津港     28.16             217.28                 2,036,691         21.21                     0.3600             79.18                     20.77                 3.81     航运业

    600031    三一重工    51.00             217.40                 2,349,001         17.02                     1.1600             87.85                     19.72                 4.45     机械

    600100    同方股份    34.52             220.31                 1,408,113         18.86                     0.2795             135.10                    12.32                 10.96    计算机硬件

    600089    特变电工    48.26             224.39                 1,403,891         24.99                     0.5067             95.24                     25.99                 3.66     电气设备

    000002    万 科A    33.76             230.21                 17,250,888         33.43                     0.4930             102.70                    58.39                 1.76     房地产开发

    000027    深能源A    27.48             235.45                 1,558,364         9.43                     0.6700             41.30                     3.88                 10.63    电力

    000709    唐钢股份    18.45             238.27                 2,021,281         26.44                     0.6300             29.27                     17.33                 1.69     钢铁

    000562    宏源证券    41.53             242.31                 1,971,974         -                         0.1560             266.27                    124.67                 2.14     金融

    600048    保利地产    75.27             247.69                 3,353,015         32.28                     1.2000             140.10                    111.10                 1.26     房地产开发

    000933    神火股份    39.30             256.12                 1,242,038         11.17                     0.8050             48.83                     35.18                 1.39     煤炭

    000623    吉林敖东    59.25             258.01                 2,990,914         4.21                     1.3500             87.57                     57.60                 1.52     医药

    000630    铜都铜业    23.90             258.82                 1,372,089         -                         0.6800             35.36                     53.37                 0.66     有色

    000800    一汽轿车    14.50             259.80                 1,140,218         3.05                     0.2135             67.93                     -192.50                -        汽车及配件

    600881    亚泰集团    25.64             277.61                 2,692,010         -                         0.1020             250.53                    9.51                 26.34    建材

    600550    天威保变    35.22             287.03                 1,198,792         -                         0.5400             129.79                    70.81                 1.83     电气设备

    600655    豫园商城    34.92             287.21                 1,862,088         4.02                     0.3700             122.72                    50.86                 2.41     商业

    000758    中色股份    31.86             287.58                 1,233,846         5.90                     0.5720             55.72                     60.67                 0.92     建筑业

    601001    大同煤业    36.94             298.14                 1,255,527         6.47                     0.5700             64.26                     28.66                 2.24     煤炭

    600675    中华企业    33.26             300.96                 2,025,668         12.59                     0.6160             70.21                     34.81                 2.02     房地产开发

    000751    锌业股份    22.35             301.98                 1,551,368         -                         0.2200             103.04                    55.17                 1.87     有色

    600177    雅戈尔     28.75             311.59                 3,664,354         3.91                     0.4239             84.79                     23.57                 3.60     纺织服装

    600489    中金黄金    79.77             324.82                 1,172,057         8.11                     0.5300             150.98                    54.92                 2.75     有色

    000338    潍柴动力    91.30             346.02                 1,748,293         27.13                     2.0700             69.46                     35.69                 1.95     汽车及配件

    600331    宏达股份    68.99             352.34                 1,687,981         9.68                     1.5322             45.03                     139.45                 0.32     有色

    600739    辽宁成大    44.85             353.25                 3,435,995         18.79                     0.9400             85.60                     137.60                 0.62     贸易

    601168    西部矿业    61.45             355.86                 1,978,561         -                         4.8000             95.16                     -                     -        有色

    600029    南方航空    17.60             360.22                 1,600,000         9.02                     0.0300             652.42                    101.20                 6.45     民航业

    000031    中粮地产    43.20             368.55                 1,675,652         4.71                     0.2500             173.23                    27.02                 6.41     房地产开发

    000983    西山煤电    41.26             368.99                 2,364,493         22.18                     0.8040             51.32                     48.17                 1.07     煤炭

    601991    大唐发电    24.79             383.35                 1,498,481         -                         0.4800             107.04                    13.80                 7.76     电力

    600068    葛洲坝     16.79             393.58                 1,199,510         -                         0.0670             249.33                    12.02                 20.75    建筑业

    600635    大众公用    13.15             404.43                 1,305,492         -                         0.1200             153.56                    -194.84                -        综合

    000652    泰达股份    28.63             404.80                 2,195,709         14.14                     0.1000             291.77                    3.40                 85.84    综合

    000878    云南铜业    55.25             411.83                 2,099,328         13.62                     1.5080             57.63                     129.68                 0.44     有色

    600811    东方集团    37.93             422.10                 3,017,551         -                         0.1600             284.17                    7.16                 39.69    综合

    000527    美的电器    31.53             435.27                 2,946,665         2.47                     0.8000             78.64                     44.39                 1.77     家电

    601600    中国铝业    35.89             446.50                 3,749,621         1.60                     0.9700             40.82                     -                     -        有色

    000960    锡业股份    50.00             467.85                 1,332,604         8.34                     0.3960             126.27                    66.83                 1.89     有色

    600150    中国船舶    191.36             503.10                 1,975,983         47.18                     1.0190             187.81                    87.80                 2.14     机械

      数据来源:天相投顾