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      2007 年 9 月 25 日
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      | C5版:应时数据
    119只股连跌四周 五大板块成重灾区
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    119只股连跌四周 五大板块成重灾区
    2007年09月25日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      ⊙东吴证券 邓文渊

      

      7月份以来股指连续发力上攻,如今沪指已经跨越5400点。时近中秋国庆,虽然指数仍然强势但市场分歧也在加大,一些昔日受资金追捧的热门股、机构重仓股已经逆指数连续阴跌调整,从周线看大多是连续拉出四根周阴线,其后市走势也显得扑朔迷离。

      具体分析下来,这些连续四周下跌的个股主要分布在以下五大板块:万科A、保利地产、中江地产、天鸿宝业等房地产板块;安琪酵母、海马股份、两面针、青岛软控等高比例送股除权后又大幅贴权的除权股;宏达经编、荣盛发展、江苏通润、报喜鸟、正邦科技、汉钟精机等新近发行上市的中小板个股;杭萧钢构、羚锐股份等近一年来累计涨幅惊人的强庄控盘股;用友软件、同仁堂、大商股份、马应龙、宝胜股份等基金重仓股。

      从调整原因来看各不相同:房地产板块的龙头股万科A在近期完成公开增发后明显进入调整阶段,原因一是在最近两三个月股价连续攀升估值已不低,二是四季度又面临大量解禁股的冲击,解禁股中也不乏上市公司交叉持股所持有的股份,不排除其中一部分会选择在高位抛售套现,三是房地产政策调控的预期使市场对其敬而远之;因此整个板块短线机会有限。

      近期建设银行、中国神华相继回归A股,而之后如中石油、中移动等巨无霸都将陆续回归,大盘股海归登陆A股市场意味着又将大大增加股票供给量。大量基金处于对新的优质蓝筹股的配置必然将对老的持仓品种进行减持,造成如用友软件等基金重仓股的调整;而高比例送股除权后又大幅贴权的除权股其下调原因则是因为在高送股前市场对这些个股提前的过度炒作使得巨大的获利盘纷纷在除权后选择了兑现离场;而强庄控盘股的下跌则是早晚会发生的事件。因此对这类股票宜远观而不可近玩。

      5·30前中小板的涨势恢弘,其成长性、细分行业龙头、高比例配送等各类故事被市场演绎得淋漓尽致。但5·30后中小板一泻千里其走势远逊主板。同时中小板估值过高、泡沫化和边缘化等论调不时出现。涨时看涨、跌时看跌的股市“焦虑症”,在中小板近半年的走势中表现得入木三分。中小板特别是新上市个股调整的原因第一是由于在高估值背景下,大资金将更多地追求安全性,而中小板相对较小的流通盘、较高发行价、极低中签率、较好炒作概念题材造成开盘的高定位带来超高市盈率,在开盘一步到位后获利盘疯狂抛售,使新买入的投资者成为新股泡沫的买单者,典型者如正邦科技从开盘当天创出的51元一路跌至9月21日最低价27.03元,跌幅达88.67%。而在此期间股指其实是上涨了近800点;第二是中小板由于流通盘的原因不方便不适合大资金腾挪,因而其调整属于主动寻求调整的可能性较大,事实上,笔者认为,诸如中小板走势也在一定程度上反映了股市规律。种种迹象表明近期主力需要进行一次有效的板块切换以达到续演牛市行情的目的。主力日后的主要精力将仍是全力接盘蓝筹绩优股,但如果部分调整充分的中小板新股短线有强力反弹出现,短线客不妨密切留意。

      连续四周下跌的品种一览

    代码     名称        周涨跌幅                     周涨跌幅                     周涨跌幅                    周涨跌幅                     每股收益(元)                所属行业

                         (%)                         (%)                         (%)                         (%)                         [今年中报]                    

                         (9.17-9.21)                 (9.10-9.14)                 (9.3-9.7)                 (8.27-8.31)                                                

    000001    深发展A     -0.60                         -1.94                         -2.37                     -4.04                         0.54                        金融服务

    000002    万科A     -6.36                         -0.16                         -5.38                     -2.85                         0.25                        房地产

    000014    沙河股份    -5.46                         -4.44                         -2.36                     -5.78                         -0.02                     房地产

    000063    中兴通讯    -2.77                         -3.54                         -4.22                     -4.22                         0.48                        信息设备

    000088    盐田港     -2.98                         -1.47                         -1.18                     -0.27                         0.24                        交通运输

    000402    金融街     -1.53                         -3.39                         -4.07                     -5.04                         0.40                        房地产

    000419    通程控股    -10.45                        -12.41                        -5.65                     -9.66                         0.10                        商业贸易

    000428    华天酒店    -4.07                         -3.81                         -3.05                     -1.23                         0.32                        餐饮旅游

    000513    丽珠集团    -3.39                         -2.57                         -5.36                     -2.60                         0.76                        医药生物

    000514    渝开发     -4.37                         -6.21                         -3.57                     -2.31                         0.10                        房地产

    000521    美菱电器    -2.31                         -7.21                         -1.55                     -1.77                         0.03                        家用电器

    000541    佛山照明    -4.05                         -0.77                         -3.10                     -0.56                         0.64                        电子元器件

    000548    湖南投资    -2.76                         -5.39                         -4.71                     -4.30                         0.37                        交通运输

    000562    宏源证券    -2.73                         -1.10                         -5.52                     -0.19                         0.70                        金融服务

    000565    渝三峡A     -4.47                         -4.33                         -0.12                     -4.69                         0.08                        化工

    000572    海马股份    -6.07                         -5.02                         -2.00                     -0.82                         0.54                        交运设备

    000616    亿城股份    -3.14                         -2.95                         -4.84                     -3.22                         0.31                        房地产

    000619    海螺型材    -2.13                         -6.30                         -1.24                     -1.09                         0.21                        建筑建材

    000661    长春高新    -3.10                         -2.70                         -7.28                     -5.97                         0.01                        医药生物

    000666    经纬纺机    -1.18                         -6.61                         -0.70                     -7.18                         0.16                        机械设备

    000790    华神集团    -5.17                         -6.84                         -4.14                     -5.43                         -0.03                     医药生物

    000816    江淮动力    -1.49                         -4.39                         -3.77                     -0.23                         0.10                        机械设备

    000819    岳阳兴长    -0.68                         -6.62                         -5.65                     -12.64                        0.09                        化工

    002004    华邦制药    -3.20                         -7.17                         -2.63                     -3.71                         0.56                        医药生物

    002008    大族激光    -5.07                         -5.05                         -3.59                     -3.28                         0.20                        信息设备

    002017    东信和平    -3.02                         -2.27                         -4.48                     -0.36                         0.13                        信息设备

    002036    宜科科技    -9.84                         -2.36                         -7.79                     -6.04                         0.11                        纺织服装

    002038    双鹭药业    -7.04                         -1.44                         -1.68                     -5.15                         0.42                        医药生物

    002044    江苏三友    -0.12                         -4.62                         -2.81                     -1.55                         0.05                        纺织服装

    002047    成霖股份    -4.68                         -2.88                         -4.55                     -3.37                         0.10                        轻工制造

    002058    威尔泰     -2.40                         -1.58                         -1.34                     -1.80                         0.08                        机械设备

    002061    江山化工    -5.13                         -3.90                         -1.42                     -6.51                         0.23                        化工

    002063    远光软件    -6.09                         -1.23                         -6.54                     -3.47                         0.14                        信息服务

    002069    獐子岛     -6.08                         -2.84                         -2.71                     -2.92                         0.60                        农林牧渔

    002071    江苏宏宝    -1.52                         -3.04                         -2.46                     -1.01                         0.06                        轻工制造

    002073    青岛软控    -4.78                         -4.51                         -2.92                     -2.08                         0.29                        信息服务

    002085    万丰奥威    -0.92                         -5.02                         -1.43                     -3.40                         0.08                        交运设备

    002088    鲁阳股份    -1.16                         -6.58                         -0.72                     -5.12                         0.40                        化工

    002093    国脉科技    -5.32                         -1.73                         -5.04                     -1.13                         0.40                        信息服务

    002107    沃华医药    -3.67                         -1.45                         -3.45                     -2.68                         0.25                        医药生物

    代码     名称        周涨跌幅                     周涨跌幅                     周涨跌幅                    周涨跌幅                     每股收益(元)                所属行业

                         (%)                         (%)                         (%)                         (%)                         [今年中报]                    

                         (9.17-9.21)                 (9.10-9.14)                 (9.3-9.7)                 (8.27-8.31)                                                

    002112    三变科技    -4.47                         -3.40                         -1.67                     -1.23                         0.18                        机械设备

    002117    东港股份    -2.35                         -1.93                         -0.59                     -1.21                         0.30                        轻工制造

    002125    湘潭电化    -5.04                         -0.30                         -1.53                     -2.75                         0.04                        化工

    002127    新民科技    -3.61                         -1.64                         -1.72                     -3.32                         0.18                        纺织服装

    002134    天津普林    -3.07                         -3.90                         -2.34                     -0.97                         0.15                        电子元器件

    002135    东南网架    -6.47                         -0.90                         -3.38                     -4.87                         0.15                        建筑建材

    002138    顺络电子    -5.68                         -3.96                         -0.48                     -2.92                         0.23                        家用电器

    002142    宁波银行    -5.02                         -8.71                         -1.00                     -3.52                         0.19                        金融服务

    002144    宏达经编    -14.31                        -5.99                         -6.53                     -2.37                         0.15                        纺织服装

    002146    荣盛发展    -10.28                        -0.96                         -10.42                     -4.61                         0.15                        房地产

    002149    西部材料    -1.51                         -6.06                         -4.05                     -4.06                         0.21                        有色金属

    002150    江苏通润    -4.07                         -3.06                         -3.99                     -4.50                         0.52                        机械设备

    002154    报喜鸟     -10.04                        -3.78                         -2.65                     -2.10                         0.38                        纺织服装

    002156    通富微电    -7.33                         -6.59                         -3.33                     -2.22                         0.15                        电子元器件

    002157    正邦科技    -9.43                         -7.33                         -5.09                     -0.78                         0.18                        农林牧渔

    002158    汉钟精机    -9.19                         -5.46                         -3.50                     -1.27                         0.22                        机械设备

    002159    三特索道    -7.31                         -10.84                        -0.81                     -7.48                         0.11                        餐饮旅游

    002163    三鑫股份    -7.22                         -4.24                         -5.81                     -0.84                         0.15                        建筑建材

    002164    东力传动    -6.48                         -7.66                         -8.65                     -4.81                         0.20                        机械设备

    600016    民生银行    -1.58                         -5.73                         -0.95                     -1.05                         0.19                        金融服务

    600031    三一重工    -1.36                         -1.34                         -2.66                     -2.08                         0.86                        机械设备

    600048    保利地产    -6.30                         -3.36                         -6.37                     -0.44                         0.25                        房地产

    600053    中江地产    -3.53                         -6.60                         -2.94                     -4.67                         0.29                        房地产

    600079    人福科技    -2.85                         -6.65                         -1.31                     -2.77                         0.07                        医药生物

    600085    同仁堂     -1.69                         -3.04                         -1.51                     -3.19                         0.38                        医药生物

    600099    林海股份    -2.88                         -5.00                         -2.12                     -0.82                         0.02                        交运设备

    600100    同方股份    -3.11                         -4.12                         -0.90                     -3.88                         0.27                        信息设备

    600109    成都建投    -1.39                         -1.56                         -5.58                     -7.78                         1.50                        金融服务

    600122    宏图高科    -0.93                         -7.81                         -5.85                     -2.98                         0.08                        商业贸易

    600143    金发科技    -0.60                         -6.14                         -4.83                     -5.11                         0.32                        化工

    600167    沈阳新开    -4.83                         -3.44                         -2.89                     -3.30                         0.02                        公用事业

    600175    美都控股    -7.64                         -4.98                         -1.92                     -2.73                         0.08                        房地产

    600212    江泉实业    -1.11                         -3.66                         -2.67                     -2.32                         -0.36                     综合

    600249    两面针     -10.67                        -1.34                         -6.60                     -0.85                         1.09                        化工

    600261    浙江阳光    -0.81                         -6.39                         -7.94                     -0.23                         0.24                        电子元器件

    600280    南京中商    -4.37                         -3.13                         -3.64                     -4.57                         0.19                        商业贸易

    600285    羚锐股份    -4.22                         -1.13                         -2.27                     -0.94                         0.40                        医药生物

    600289    亿阳信通    -3.52                         -8.47                         -1.98                     -2.30                         0.14                        信息服务

    600298    安琪酵母    -3.31                         -3.01                         -5.61                     -2.21                         0.51                        食品饮料

    600306    商业城     -1.33                         -3.49                         -2.68                     -3.95                         0.05                        商业贸易

    代码     名称        周涨跌幅                     周涨跌幅                     周涨跌幅                    周涨跌幅                     每股收益(元)                所属行业

                         (%)                         (%)                         (%)                         (%)                         [今年中报]                    

                         (9.17-9.21)                 (9.10-9.14)                 (9.3-9.7)                 (8.27-8.31)                                                

    600310    桂东电力    -1.99                         -1.62                         -4.05                     -3.70                         0.29                        公用事业

    600327    大厦股份    -3.33                         -4.80                         -1.05                     -2.25                         0.16                        商业贸易

    600360    华微电子    -5.86                         -1.68                         -7.03                     -1.38                         0.25                        电子元器件

    600361    华联综超    -7.97                         -1.50                         -5.13                     -3.46                         0.23                        商业贸易

    600376    天鸿宝业    -6.47                         -6.40                         -5.62                     -0.02                         -0.03                     房地产

    600391    成发科技    -0.03                         -2.81                         -5.29                     -2.50                         0.27                        交运设备

    600405    动力源     -5.53                         -3.69                         -0.41                     -3.54                         -0.02                     信息设备

    600416    湘电股份    -9.57                         -0.18                         -1.04                     -2.66                         0.17                        机械设备

    600446    金证股份    -1.33                         -5.84                         -3.39                     -0.24                         0.08                        信息服务

    600477    杭萧钢构    -5.33                         -9.38                         -7.98                     -3.61                         0.06                        建筑建材

    600521    华海药业    -4.56                         -1.95                         -0.65                     -5.03                         0.32                        医药生物

    600522    中天科技    -2.01                         -2.49                         -4.46                     -0.79                         0.15                        信息设备

    600525    长园新材    -3.96                         -3.49                         -3.62                     -2.16                         0.39                        有色金属

    600533    栖霞建设    -2.19                         -6.69                         -0.36                     -3.13                         0.40                        房地产

    600576    万好万家    -5.07                         -7.18                         -1.62                     -1.99                         0.01                        餐饮旅游

    600588    用友软件    -6.35                         -3.56                         -0.04                     -5.44                         0.67                        信息服务

    600589    广东榕泰    -2.51                         -4.06                         -3.32                     -3.22                         0.20                        化工

    600592    龙溪股份    -3.52                         -3.86                         -3.90                     -1.46                         0.33                        机械设备

    600594    益佰制药    -8.53                         -4.16                         -2.24                     -8.62                         0.45                        医药生物

    600596    新安股份    -0.21                         -7.88                         -0.28                     -1.06                         0.63                        化工

    600611    大众交通    -0.45                         -9.62                         -3.96                     -0.31                         0.29                        交通运输

    600641    万业企业    -6.96                         -1.98                         -5.36                     -0.07                         0.64                        房地产

    600650    锦江投资    -0.30                         -0.53                         -0.59                     -0.64                         0.30                        交通运输

    600675    中华企业    -2.08                         -0.36                         -7.08                     -3.52                         0.38                        房地产

    600689    上海三毛    -3.88                         -1.49                         -4.56                     -1.40                         -0.19                     纺织服装

    600694    大商股份    -1.01                         -6.95                         -2.84                     -3.54                         0.90                        商业贸易

    600695    ST大江     -1.55                         -7.86                         -2.68                     -5.18                         0.02                        农林牧渔

    600731    湖南海利    -5.75                         -4.64                         -7.36                     -0.18                         0.02                        化工

    600736    苏州高新    -1.86                         -3.54                         -0.68                     -3.30                         0.18                        房地产

    600741    巴士股份    -2.68                         -9.74                         -1.88                     -0.49                         0.09                        交通运输

    600750    江中药业    -4.97                         -3.82                         -4.02                     -1.12                         0.38                        医药生物

    600819    耀皮玻璃    -4.38                         -4.65                         -2.68                     -6.25                         0.07                        建筑建材

    600820    隧道股份    -3.43                         -1.11                         -3.16                     -2.82                         0.14                        建筑建材

    600826    兰生股份    -4.37                         -5.64                         -5.67                     -5.67                         0.04                        商业贸易

    600835    上海机电    -0.86                         -7.07                         -5.98                     -2.48                         0.35                        机械设备

    600837    海通证券    -1.97                         -5.31                         -3.27                     -6.00                         0.60                        金融服务

    600881    亚泰集团    -2.29                         -2.24                         -9.55                     -9.71                         0.26                        建筑建材

    600973    宝胜股份    -0.19                         -2.87                         -2.37                     -0.93                         0.37                        机械设备

    600993    马应龙     -4.78                         -3.06                         -0.86                     -3.43                         1.45                        医药生物

      (数据来源:wind资讯)