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      2007 年 9 月 26 日
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    六成公司三季度业绩预计向好
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    六成公司三季度业绩预计向好
    2007年09月26日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      ⊙天相投顾 王巍峰

      

      截至9月21日,总共492家上市公司对公司三季度业绩情况作出了预计,其中,240家公司预增,58家公司预盈,合计占发布业绩预告公司总数的61%;127家公司预亏,35家公司预降,合计占发布业绩预告公司总数的33%;另有23家公司预平,预计公司三季度净利润较去年同期变化幅度将不超过30%,9家公司预警,由于债务重组未完成或者持有交易性金融资产受到二级市场价格波动影响等原因,预计公司三季度净利润将存在不确定性。

      煤炭、金融、汽车及配件、电气设备、有色等行业三季度业绩预计向好的公司较为集中,其中,9家煤炭行业公司发布预告且全部向好,4家金融行业公司发布预告,三季度业绩也是全部向好;汽车及配件、电气设备、有色、综合和钢铁五个行业均各有10家以上公司发布业绩预告且七成多公司预计三季度业绩向好。目前为止,石油、计算机硬件、传媒三个行业内,预计三季度业绩将趋坏的公司数量要多于预计三季度业绩向好的公司。

      15家公司预计三季度净利润增长将超过500%,59家公司预计三季度净利润增长幅度在100%-400%之间,值得注意的是,这些三季度业绩预计大幅增长的公司,今年上半年实现盈利增长就已经很高,数据显示,74家三季度业绩增长预计超过100%公司中,除*ST南控一家公司上半年亏损,舒卡股份和三木集团 2家公司上半年扭亏,长征电气等5家公司上半年净利润增长幅度低于100%,其余66家公司上半年净利润即已实现翻番。广汇股份、獐子岛等8家公司上半年净利润出现下滑,而在三季度这些公司均预计净利润将比去年同期实现增长。上海三毛等9家公司上半年为亏损,三季度这种状况将有所改变。

      各行业三季度业绩预计情况

    预增或预盈公司行业分布                                                        预亏或预降公司行业分布                                                    

    行业                     预增或预盈             发布预告公司总数    占比    行业                     预增或预盈             发布预告公司总数    占比

                             公司家数                                                                     公司家数                                        

    煤炭                     9                     9                 100%    石油                     3                     3                 100%

    金融                     4                     4                 100%    计算机硬件                7                     8                 88%

    城市交通与仓储            2                     2                 100%    传媒                     3                     5                 60%

    公路                     2                     2                 100%    电力                     9                     18                 50%

    民航业                    2                     2                 100%    商业                     5                     10                 50%

    石化                     2                     2                 100%    航运业                    3                     6                 50%

    铁路运输                 1                     1                 100%    酒店旅游                 3                     6                 50%

    汽车及配件                13                     15                 87%     农业                     7                     15                 47%

    电气设备                 10                     12                 83%     食品                     5                     11                 45%

    有色                     10                     12                 83%     贸易                     3                     7                 43%

    综合                     10                     13                 77%     医药                     14                     33                 42%

    钢铁                     8                     11                 73%     纺织服装                 13                     31                 42%

    化纤                     7                     10                 70%     园区土地开发             2                     5                 40%

    建筑业                    7                     10                 70%     通信                     7                     18                 39%

    软件及服务                7                     10                 70%     房地产开发                13                     34                 38%

    机械                     30                     43                 70%     化工                     13                     35                 37%

    建材                     14                     22                 64%     日用品                    2                     6                 33%

    房地产开发                21                     34                 62%     总计                     162                     492                 33%

    总计                     298                     492                 61%     家电                     7                     23                 30%

    造纸包装                 10                     17                 59%     化纤                     3                     10                 30%

    元器件                    12                     21                 57%     软件及服务                3                     10                 30%

    家电                     13                     23                 57%     造纸包装                 5                     17                 29%

    通信                     10                     18                 56%     元器件                    6                     21                 29%

    食品                     6                     11                 55%     建材                     6                     22                 27%

    化工                     19                     35                 54%     综合                     3                     13                 23%

    农业                     8                     15                 53%     机械                     8                     43                 19%

    医药                     17                     33                 52%     钢铁                     2                     11                 18%

    商业                     5                     10                 50%     电气设备                 2                     12                 17%

    航运业                    3                     6                 50%     有色                     2                     12                 17%

    酒店旅游                 3                     6                 50%     汽车及配件                2                     15                 13%

    日用品                    3                     6                 50%     建筑业                    1                     10                 10%

    纺织服装                 14                     31                 45%                                                                            

    电力                     8                     18                 44%                                                                            

    贸易                     3                     7                 43%                                                                            

    传媒                     2                     5                 40%                                                                            

    园区土地开发             2                     5                 40%                                                                            

    计算机硬件                1                     8                 13%                                                                            

      数据来源:天相投顾

      今年涨幅较小的三季度业绩预增或预盈公司一览

    代码     名称        业绩预告         变化幅度    净利润增长率(07中报)[%]    每股收益                    行业         收盘价                 涨幅                        市盈率            市净率

                         类型                                                     (07中报)[元]                            (0920)                 (0101-0925)             (倍)            (倍)

                                                                                                                             [元]                    [%]                                            

    002069    獐 子 岛    预增             <=10%     -15.88                     0.6                         农业         68.50                 -6.64                     56.74             7.31

    002095    网盛科技    预增             30~50%     33.76                        0.32                        软件及服务    60.95                 10.99                     95.94             11.41

    000793    华闻传媒    预增             50~100%     71.87                        0.04                        传媒         10.48                 16.19                     117.74            6.90

    002045    广州国光    预增             <30%        -15.04                     0.1                         元器件        13.18                 20.24                     65.01             4.10

    002090    金智科技    预增             <30%        5.15                         0.246                     电气设备     18.70                 27.77                     37.98             4.97

    002086    东方海洋    预增             <30%        19.08                        0.14                        农业         16.20                 40.34                     55.96             3.45

    002073    青岛软控    预增             <30%        2.75                         0.29                        软件及服务    33.34                 41.19                     57.81             5.56

    002100    天康生物    预增             <30%        8.1                         0.21                        农业         17.91                 42.51                     42.35             4.77

    002087    新野纺织    预增             <30%        17.95                        0.12                        纺织服装     8.91                    45.35                     38.65             2.13

    002098    浔兴股份    预增             >=30%     44.05                        0.212                     纺织服装     17.40                 46.79                     41.04             5.26

    002080    中材科技    预增             <30%        11.59                        0.2                         化纤         28.64                 48.75                     70.48             7.02

    002063    远光软件    预增             30~50%     31.34                        0.142                     软件及服务    19.46                 51.05                     68.32             7.00

    600776    东方通信    预增             >=100%     226.53                     0.03                        通信         7.31                    52.61                     123.68            4.23

    002074    东源电器    预增             30~60%     30                         0.178                     电气设备     18.05                 54.26                     50.78             4.81

    002046    轴研科技    预增             <30%        13.12                        0.184                     机械         17.03                 54.98                     46.18             5.36

    002089    新 海 宜    预增             <30%        35.4                         0.096                     通信         17.87                 58.80                     93.30             4.91

    002003    伟星股份    预增             30~50%     29.29                        0.28                        纺织服装     22.65                 60.52                     52.93             7.12

    002066    瑞泰科技    预增             30~50%     4.54                         0.14                        建材         19.00                 60.88                     68.42             5.55

    600828    *ST成商     预盈             -         扭亏                         0.138                     商业         14.40                 61.98                     52.29             13.95

    002076    雪 莱 特    预增             <30%        31.34                        0.14                        元器件        17.03                 63.74                     61.98             9.31

    000637    S 茂实华    预增             >=50%     157.38                     0.178                     石化         16.67                 63.93                     46.81             10.58

    002053    云南盐化    预增             <30%        -4.01                        0.326                     化工         18.60                 65.19                     28.56             3.43

    002070    众和股份    预增             <=30%     -9.56                        0.17                        纺织服装     18.85                 65.55                     55.61             5.42

    002060    粤 水 电    预增             <30%        11.74                        0.178                     建筑业        11.07                 66.03                     31.10             2.78

    600059    古越龙山    预增             >=200%     428.22                     0.199                     食品         27.33                 68.38                     68.64             5.41

    600960    滨州活塞    预增             >=50%     60.35                        0.111                     汽车及配件    13.07                 69.74                     49.47             2.37

    002017    东信和平    预增             40~70%     68.99                        0.13                        通信         12.30                 75.07                     47.07             3.62

    002117    东港股份    预增             <30%        20.9                         0.32                        造纸包装     17.78                 75.47                     30.06             4.11

    600525    长园新材    预增             -         51.76                        0.39                        化工         44.99                 78.43                     57.21             8.03

    002056    横店东磁    预增             >=30%     39.12                        0.38                        元器件        35.95                 81.82                     46.88             5.78

    002051    中工国际    预增             40~70%     81.63                        0.43                        建筑业        27.19                 82.07                     31.28             5.75

    002023    海特高新    预增             <30%        12.2                         0.18                        机械         16.98                 82.42                     46.65             4.23

    002127    新民科技    预增             <30%        18.2                         0.22                        纺织服装     17.25                 83.51                     46.70             4.16

    600498    烽火通信    预增             >=100%     245.11                     0.11                        通信         13.34                 83.58                     60.49             2.40

    002081    金 螳 螂    预增             <30%        10.13                        0.34                        建筑业        44.00                 84.42                     64.21             7.95

    002052    同洲电子    预增             120~160%    117.32                     0.22                        家电         19.56                 87.24                     45.38             7.06

    002043    兔 宝 宝    预增             <30%        16.27                        0.15                        建材         10.35                 87.54                     33.87             3.49

    002048    宁波华翔    预增             30~50%     40.54                        0.21                        汽车及配件    23.07                 89.37                     54.40             6.99

    000910    大亚科技    预增             50~100%     94.58                        0.17                        造纸包装     13.62                 90.49                     42.75             4.22

    002112    三变科技    预增             <=30%     -5.55                        0.185                     电气设备     18.85                 93.15                     53.26             4.10

    600610    S*ST中纺    预增             -         扭亏                         0.26                        机械         14.99                 97.24                     28.86             22.00

    002029    七 匹 狼    预增             30~50%     37.22                        0.18                        纺织服装     26.07                 98.02                     73.57             11.17

    002015    霞客环保    预增             40~50%     47.57                        0.164                     化纤         12.60                 98.43                     38.47             4.29

    002031    巨轮股份    预增             30~50%     22.39                        0.245                     机械         16.10                 99.20                     42.99             6.56