中国石油（601857）：怎样的定价是合理的

　　中石油的上市使A股市场又多了一项具有里程碑意义的世界第一：全球第一大权重股。中石油的营收尽管只有埃克森美孚的四分之一，但前者的股价是后者的四倍，市值是后者的两倍多，有了这个比较，投资者或许对巴非特前期在香港大举抛售中石油的行为有了许多理解。因而，中石油虽然贵为亚洲最赚钱的公司，但48.60元的上市价还是令专业投资者们大吃一惊，中石油上市时被市场热捧的原因应该是：它代表了人们对中国经济增长的高预期；它代表了投资者对A股大牛市的高预期；它还是能源稀为贵的标志；同时，它上市的时候又折射着A股市场的泡沫程度。因此，中石油上市的高定价是荣光和泡沫并存的标志。中石油到底价值几何？怎样的定价是合理的？作位必配品种，机构投资者将会在怎样的价格水平上配置？从数十家机构的专业报告中应能找到答案。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (元)
07年	08年	09年
中金公司	2007/11/05	推荐	公司一直保持了45%的分红比例，以及一年两次分红的股利分配政策，至2007年中期累计分红达到3,055亿元，公司稳定的分红政策将给投资者带来持续可观的现金回报。	0.79	0.94	0.95	29.72                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~36.30
联合证券	2007/11/05	----	资源税有望从从量计税改革至从价计税、成品油定价机制为炼油行业带来明朗盈利前景，天然气价格上涨等都成为中国石油的潜在利好。	0.81	0.80	0.75	25.90                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~29.95
安信证券	2007/11/03	----	公司拥有油气储量205.3亿当量桶，在亚洲位居第一，也是中国储量最大的公司。拥有的一体化产业链是公司的优势所在。	0.90	1.01	0.99	30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~35.00
国泰君安	2007/11/05	----	作为上证指数权重最大的蓝筹股之一，可能成为机构投资组合资产配置策略的核心选择。	0.83	0.92	0.94	38.74
长江证券	2007/11/05	推荐	油价未来仍将高位震荡，公司将从中收益，快速增长的天然气和中下游业务，以及自身强大的抗风险能力将保证未来业绩稳定增长。	0.79	0.96	1.01	29.90                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~37.40
兴业证券	2007/10/31	----	2010年我国天然气消费在能源消费中要从2005年的2.8%上升到5.3%，这给拥有国内85%以上天然气资源的中石油带来巨大机遇。	0.84	0.95	1.16	28.50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~33.25
东方证券	2007/11/02	----	作为一体化能源企业，受累于国内成品油定价机制，但不会改变公司业绩增长趋势，中石油将在高盈利基础上实现稳步小幅增长。	0.92	1.00	1.02	35.00
国信证券	2007/10/29	中性	在政府管制成品油价格背景下，中石油在原油价格上涨中基本无法受益，加之产量增长低，所以中石油未来难以保持20％的业绩增长。	0.90	1.02	1.08	35.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~40.50
银河证券	2007/10/30	推荐	中国石油油气勘探利润丰厚；炼油与销售在迅速扩张；化工产品涨价促使业绩增长；管道运输将是新利润的增长点。	0.89	1.00	1.10	33.64                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~37.18
招商证券	2007/10/28	----	中石油增长来源有三个：一是天然气业务正处于大发展阶段；二是作为一体化企业，下游产品价格可以决定公司盈利；三是依托集团公司拓展国际海外油气业务。	----	----	----	28.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~32.00
渤海证券	2007/11/01	----	国际化布局将有利于获取可持续的油气资源和稳定的市场，并提高公司的长远竞争力和抗风险能力，保证本公司的长期可持续发展。	0.91	1.06	1.16	31.80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~37.10
中投证券	2007/11/02	----	中石油拥有国内最大规模油气输送管网和广泛的成品油批发销售网络，覆盖全国26个省、直辖市及自治区，是重要的基础战略资源。	0.93	1.07	1.15	32.10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~37.45
国海证券	2007/11/02	----	公司上游业务比重较大，将能保证公司业绩良好增长。随我国成品油机制逐步完善，成品油将有较大提升空间，从而提高公司盈利水平。	0.80	0.93	1.03	41.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~45.00
西南证券	2007/10/30	----	公司油气已探明储量在三大石油公司中占比达70%以上，已探明油气出量十年内可确保油气产量稳中有升，不会出现“油气荒”的局面。	0.79	0.93	1.03	30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ~32.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.854	0.968	1.021	34.15
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	44.50	39.26	37.22
风 险 提 示
（1）油价波动风险、国家价格政策风险、汇率变动的风险；（2）油气的勘探开发、石油炼制、石油化工及其运输和销售等都属于危险生产行业，一旦发生此类风险，对公司的开工负荷有重大影响，并可能支付较大金额的资金赔偿；（3）政府可能出台更严厉的环保标准，公司未来可能会增加环保支出；（4）公司海外业务和资产由于国际政治、经济和其他因素的复杂性，可能加大海外业务拓展及经营的风险。