南京水运（600087）：规模效应带来成长空间

　　通过本次增发募资长期期租6艘VLCC之后，南京水运的油运船队规模将超过许多央企航运公司，继中海集团之后位居全国第二。这意味着公司在“弃江从海”之后已一举壮大为行业内的巨头之一，正因此，成为了中国石化等一些大集团的长期战略伙伴。

　　油价上涨与船价的上涨必然会促使运价的上涨，结合公司运力规模的扩张，在稳定已有业绩之余，也给公司股票价格赋予了新的增长空间。因此，公司稳妥的业绩与显著的增长有望促进股票进入蓝筹行列。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                        

                                                                                    考虑到08年约1000万吨单壳油轮将改造成散货船，全球油轮运力供给、需求增速分别为4.3%、4.5%左右，供求可能趋紧，可看好油运市场的长期发展前景。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                        

                                                                                    鉴于公司股价已经较前期有较大回落，考虑到公司未来极高的成长性，目前估值不高。如果以目前市场新造船价格计算公司订单增值和未来增发新增权益，公司到2010年每股净资产将达到15.00元以上。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
2007年	2008年	2009年
联合证券	2007/11/13	增持	公司将再次长期期租6 艘VLCC，租期8-12年，自出厂日之起，日期租租金不超过3.8 万美元/天。按发改委计划2010年、2015年国油国运比例分别为50%、80%，相应地需要中国船东承运的进口原油量为1亿吨、2亿吨，可以预期2010 年以后中国船东的VlCC 运输业务发展空间依然很大。	0.49	0.64	1.03	26.50
申银万国	2007/11/14	增持	公司实现资产注入后，将成为远东地区最大的MR型成品油船队，和国内最大的进口原油与化学品运输船队之一。公司船队中的双壳船比重（超过95％）也将是国内最高。根据与中石化等大货主签订的长期合同，公司进口原油货源将有充分保证，运价也将有一定保底。	0.30	0.74	1.08	-----
长江证券	2007/11/13	推荐	公司在定向增发完成后，现有船队加上订单总规模为502万载重吨，未来拥有和控制的油轮船队总规模将达到688万吨，一举从目前油轮船队规模最弱的地位跃升至国内第二。按照增发后总股本计算，公司的重置价格为18.30-20.00元/股，公司目前股价低于重置价格附近，安全边际很高。本次增加6条租期VLCC后，公司的成长空间进一步增大。	0.52	0.77	1.21	30.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.437	0.717	1.107	28.25
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	41.88	25.52	16.53
风 险 提 示
（1）油运价格可能会低于预期；（2）增发会摊薄现有业绩。