随着有色金属等原材料价格的回落，以及国际上半导体产业重心向中国的迁移，电子器件类行业与公司的景气度正在回升；而此类公司在此前的牛市行情中原本就是普遍被低估的，两大因素的作用，使得电子器件类公司已经开始被机构投资者所重视，其中类似长电科技这样的行业龙头企业更是被普遍看好，在近期行情中也陆续出现机构的增持行为。在当前结构性中梳理后期新秩序的行情中，这种行情重心转移的现象应值得投资者高度关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (元)
07年	08年	09年
中信证券	2007/11/26	买入	从公司目前的产能扩张、产品开发等经营态势看，未来两三年将是公司的快速成长期。按照股权激励条件，公司07-09年EPS至少需要达到0.31/0.43/0.51 元，三年28.3%的复合增长率相对于很多企业是个很高的增长率，这给长电科技在估值方面提供了一个高增长股的标签。	0.39	0.65	0.84	19.40
申银万国	2007/11/26	买入	公司顺应集成电路产业想中国转移的趋势，将策略重心调整到IC封装，08年将是收获的一年。FPB量产顺利，近期将完成扩产，稳健估算08年贡献1.68亿销售收入；基板业务也进入量产阶段，是08年投资的主要方向。长电科技作为国内最有实力的封装厂，进入主流封装技术后将具有良好的长期成长性。	0.38	0.69	0.94	21.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ——                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              28.00
安信证券	2007/11/26	买入-A	公司奖励基金获得的多少取决于净利润增长率，相比股权激励计划，管理层平滑业绩的动力大为减弱，这在一定程度上可以消除市场对公司股权激励方案实施可能会使管理层有平滑利润动机的担心。因此，管理层激励实施计划提高了 公司未来业绩大幅增长的确定性。	0.40	0.66	1.05	20.00
国金证券	2007/11/26	买入	公司管理层现金激励方案一旦实施将增强管理层与股东利益的一致性。公司的核心价值在于“分立器件制造+独立封装业务”的经营模式，而FBP的技术创新与长电先进的技术储备将提升公司的行业地位与发展空间。	0.40	0.65	0.80	22.14
兴业证券	2007/11/26	推荐	以近期经营情况看，公司07年净利润增长率至少在40%以上。虽然公司制定的激励方案触发条件偏低，但奖励方案与净利润水平挂钩，仍起到了激励管理层努力提高公司盈利水平的作用。公司FBP等高端封装业务带动业绩进入快速增长轨道，08年大幅成长预期没有改变。	0.37	0.58	0.70	-----
财富证券	2007/11/26	推荐	公司自主创新技术FBP及晶圆级封装有望从08年起进入收获期，是提升业绩的主要动力；国内半导体行业发展速度要高于全球平均水平，为公司从本土半导体龙头企业成长为世界级企业提供了有利环境。	0.33	0.53	0.66	18.80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ——                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              22.85
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.378	0.627	0.832	21.37
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	40.45	24.38	18.38
风 险 提 示
（1）人民币升值幅度可能超预期，影响到公司海外销售和盈利能力；（2）管理层现金激励方案将影响公司现金，同时缺乏市值管理调整，相对股权激励存在一定缺陷。