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      2007 年 12 月 9 日
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      | 5版:大智慧大鳄猎物
    三大思路寻找年报业绩浪品种
    中信证券研究报告认为:A股市场已进入战术性增仓期
    天相投顾研究报告认为:估值压力已得到基本释放
    定向增发:价值提升孕育反弹
    电力板块:有望出现阶段性机会
    深发展(000001):增发方案提升估值水平
    一周强势股排行榜
    跨年度行情有望展开
    各板块轮动机会增多
    中国中铁:资金做多意愿强烈
    中国联通:后市表现机会较大
    南方航空:资金回补迹象明显
    安信证券研究报告认为:风格转换将左右市场运行格局
    海通证券研究报告认为:大盘阶段性底部已基本显露
    机构资金
    抄底力度在加大
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
    长江证券研究报告认为:行情的中期调整尚未结束
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
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    深发展(000001):增发方案提升估值水平
    2007年12月09日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

      在新桥投资入主深发展,使公司的经营与管理上了一个台阶,也使这个股市中的老龙头“老树发新枝”。近期,宝钢集团似以通过定向增发形式参股深发展,使该公司再度得到了众多机构投资者的高度关注。

      因为,宝钢集团巨资的进入,有助于提升该公司的竞争力和保持稳定的增长性。由此,在该事件出来后,许多机构提高了对该公司的盈利预测及提升了行情估值,盘中也再度出现了机构投资者对该股的增持行为。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    评级机构评级日期股票评级投资要点EPS (元)估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (元)

    07年 08年09年
    安信证券2007/12/03买入-A本次发行完成后,不考虑认股权证行权的因素,则新桥投资的持股比例由目前的16.7%降至15.8%,仍将保持相对控股地位,不会导致公司控制权变化。再融资之后,公司的贷款增速和资产增速有望迅速启动,摊薄旧贷款的占比,进而拉低不良贷款率,推高拨备覆盖率。1.08 1.402.27-----
    国泰君安2007/12/03增持一旦宝钢集团成功加盟深发展,深发展的资本实力将空前增强,并将大力促进公司不良资产的核销和处置,资产质量迅速提高,其迈进“优秀银行”的距离将更近,速度将更快。1.10 1.682.3372.00
    招商证券2007/12/03推荐以三季末净资产为计算基础,本次非公开发行股票完成后,如果考虑权证充分行权,则07和08年末每股净资产将分别大幅增至7.19 和9.19元,由于新增股本只占现有总股本的5.6%,故对每股收益稀释有限。1.02 1.662.1941.60

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ~45.20

    中金公司2007/12/03中性此次定向增发有利于公司长远发展,但短期影响有限。如果08年新增贷款不能超过07年,那么贷款增速还有下调的可能。新开分支机构当年盈利贡献有限,真正产生盈利要到09 年。1.00 1.48---------
    国信证券2007/12/03推荐宝钢集团在银行、保险、信托等金融领域均多有股权投资,此次准备以二级市场价格水平大力参股,显然是看中了公司良好的发展前景,宝钢集团强大背景对公司发展形成潜在利好。1.20 2.00----56.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ~60.00

    申银万国2007/12/03中性预计公司在补充资本金之后,会继续加大一般贷款的投放量,公司的贷款仍将保持快速增长,2008 年随着战略投资者的入股,权证的行权,公司将进入一个新的发展期。1.14 1.772.84-----
    长江证券2007/12/03推荐可以预期,在资本金得到补充之后,深发展在未来两年将通过增加网点设置,大力拓展个人业务,与客户和战略投资者的合作也将进一步展开,公司的发展进入一个加速扩张阶段。1.14 2.06---------
    天相投顾2007/12/03买入深发展的经营模式独具特色,资本充足率达标后,为深发展拓展业务,和增设网点奠定资金基础。此次增发新股定价为35.15元,表明宝钢集团对深发展未来的前景充满信心,也将对公司未来股价起到一定的支撑作用。1.15 1.782.33-----
    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)1.10 1.732.3957.80
    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)36.1823.0116.65
    风 险 提 示
    (1)定向增发将摊薄近期每股收益;(2)此次定向增发需要经过股东大会同意,以及银监会、证监会等多个相关部门的审批。是否能够获批,以及何时获得审批仍有一定的不确定性。