中海发展（600026）：业绩处于释放高峰期和稳定增长期

　　随着经济的高速增长、出口贸易的高度繁荣，以及对能源需求的旺盛，外运、煤运、油运行业也正处于高度景气的状态，相应的航运类公司更处于业绩释放的高峰期和稳定增长期。

　　中海发展作为航运龙头公司之一，自然从中享受到丰厚的利益。根据诸多机构的深度研究，该公司的业绩水平与复合增长率十分显著，而目前的估值水平却仍较为低廉，从而使机构投资者具有了配置的价值与配置机会，也使行情具备了走好的条件。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级		EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                      投资要点
07年	08年	09年
中金公司	2007/12/10	推荐	由于07年外贸干散货市场运价一路走高，带动沿海运价上涨，目前公司07年内贸煤合同运价远低于市场运价水平。因此，中海发展08年的沿海电煤运输价格将达到20%的同比增长；基于今年到目前为止WS 指数平均为71 点，考虑到中海发展还享受运价优惠的机制，则07年和08年的油轮运价要比之前预测上调11.2%。	1.38	1.68	2.03	42.00
国泰君安	2007/12/10	增持	预计08年干散货市场运价仍将处在高位，预期08年沿海煤炭运价上涨幅度将达到20%；09-10 年油轮市场运价回升和公司油轮运力大幅度增长带来公司业绩增长。公司两块业务周期不同，保证了公司持续的增长。	1.35	1.60	1.80	45.00
天相投顾	2007/12/10	增持	公司有24%的收入来自外贸油运业务，将从现阶段国际油轮运价的大幅反弹中受益；公司约有12%的收入来自国际干散货运输业务，预期08年干散货运价将高位震荡，大幅度回落的可能性不大。公司是中国沿海煤炭运输的领导者，占据着31%左右的市场份额，是公司最核心的业务，预期公司08年沿海煤炭运价上涨幅度可能达到20%水平。沿海煤炭运价提升和运力增长将成为驱动公司业绩增长的主要力量。从公司定单运力的交付情况来看，在保证沿海运力稳定增长的情况下，未来公司将把握“国油国运”和“国矿国运”带来的市场机遇，尤其是2009年以后，随着在建8艘VLCC和12艘VLOC陆续交付使用，公司进口原油和铁矿石运输业务将进入高速发展阶段。	1.35	1.70	2.00	42.50
联合证券	2007/12/07	增持	根据公司最近与货主谈判的情况，估计内贸煤基准运价上涨幅度约为20%，08年内贸煤业务同比将多贡献EPS0.35元；由于船厂效率的提高公司原有订单投放时间大提前，估计09年总有效运力增幅将由原来的6%提高到15%左右。公司可能在最近再下4艘30万吨级VLOC（铁矿石船）和10艘5.73万吨（内贸煤运输）的散货船订单，大幅扩大运力。	1.37	1.75	1.90	40.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ~44.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	1.363	1.683	1.933	42.88
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.64	19.95	17.37
风 险 提 示
（1）沿海煤炭运价上涨幅度可能低于预期；（2）燃料油价格上涨幅度可能超过预期；（3）油轮运输市场运价继续下跌；（4）全球经济显著放缓带来国际航运价格的波动。