中材国际（600970）：长期趋势仍可进一步看好

　　近年来，中材国际已经从国内行业龙头迅速成长为全球行业巨头，也已经成为“中国制造”、“装备制造”的杰出代表。同时，又处于目前景气度极高的水泥行业上游，由此而享受着市场份额与行业景气的双重回报，公司业绩也正处于高速增长的阶段。基于公司基本面的状况，中材国际有望享受到高市场占有率、高行业景气度、高复合增长率、股本大扩张潜力等多方面的估值溢价，这也是机构投资者高度看好的原因，也预示着该股行情仍有着丰厚的潜力，在长期趋势上具备了进一步提高的潜质。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2007/01/16 优大于市                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.45     2.22 2.84 80.00

                                                                                                                                2007/01/13 增持-A                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.56     2.38 2.96 74.00

                                                                                                                                                                                 2007/01/09 强烈推荐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.40     2.05 2.55 80.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (元)
07年	08年	09年
			公司是全球最大的水泥技术设备及工程供应商，覆盖国内90%及国外28%的水泥生产线建设市场份额。近年新签订单及未结订单增长较快，这将成为未来收入利润增长的保证。随着2007年收购的两个机械厂的投产扩建，公司水泥设备制造能力预计两年内可提高60%-70%，国产化率以及自主品牌水泥设备比例的提高，将有助于巩固毛利率。07-09年公司每股收益年均复合增长率54%，净资产收益率30%，大大高于国内同行的37%和17%。				中银国际
			公司是我国水泥工程服务业的龙头企业，能够提供从设计、设备制造到安装的一整套服务。公司上市后，实施两个发展战略的转变：从单一项目服务商向总承包商转变，从国内市场向国际市场进军。近三年公司的海外订单呈现爆发性增长，预计07年公司海外订单达到170亿元左右，全球市场份额基本处于第一位。通过一系列资本运作，中材国际的机械装备制造能力明显提升，在国际项目中自有技术装备比例一般占到全套生产线的55%-90%，随着公司自身装备制造能力的提升，公司的海外施工毛利率将从底部逐步回升。				安信证券
			我国新增水泥需求与结构替换需求带来的新干法生产线在今后5 年内年新增产能至少在5000万吨，如果以每条5000TDP 生产线造价3.5亿元计算，每年对应的市场容量为100亿元左右。2007年公司在国际市场上的占有率将超过30%，市场排名有望达到全球第一，国内市场占有率仍将达70%以上。公司上市以来，年复合增长率较高，预计2008年的增幅不低于40％，达到200 亿元左右。公司股权激励方案目前正在孕育中，有望进一步提升管理层做大做强的动力。				招商证券
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	1.47	2.217	2.783	78.00
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	41.63	27.60	21.99
风 险 提 示
（1）全球经济增长放缓可能对水泥需求产生一些负面影响；（2）公司毛利率呈下降趋势，拐点暂未显现；（3）人民币升值对公司盈利有一定的负面影响。