福星股份（000926）：安全边际与价值增长均显突出

　　对已经披露年报的公司来说，年报一披露就代表着已经成为过去，行情演绎的将是对2008年以及更久的预期。

　　按照机构深度研究报告的分析，在已公布年报公司中目前最被低估的公司是福星股份无疑。

　　该公司目前对应于2008年预期业绩的市盈率只在15倍附近，而未来3年的复合增长率达到了46%，安全边际与价值增长均显突出。如果投资策略上要从年报中“掘金”，该股无疑是必选的标的股之一。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                             2008/01/29 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.94     1.41 1.89 22.48

                                                                                                 2008/01/29 推荐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.89     1.38 1.92 21.00至26.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008/01/29 推荐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.92     1.34 1.86 ----

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
08年	09年	10年
			2007年公司共新增4 块土地，累计增加土地合建筑面积约191.17万平方米。公司还收购了北京安人投资有限公司，拟将其作为在北京发展的投资平台，择机进入北京房地产市场，谋求房地产业在环渤海经济圈的战略布局。公司最大的优势在于土地的低成本，这给予了公司较大的获利空间，同时公司楼盘的高品质保证了公司未来的销售渠道。无论是在房地产行业，还是在金属制品行业，公司的相对估值水平均处于最低水平，但公司经营规模和业绩均保持在业内中上水平，因此目前被明显低估。				广发证券
			公司目前在武汉周遍拥有约220万平米未售面积，可以支撑未来3年利润的增长。07年底收购了北京安人投资有限公司全部股权，谋求在环渤海经济圈的战略布局。08 年初又与呼和浩特市政府签署“城中村”改造协议，项目涉及土地3000亩，建筑面积约520万平方米。另外，作为国内子午轮胎钢帘线龙头企业之一，公司未来将加大对子午轮胎钢帘线技改扩能力度，提升产品盈利能力，保持行业领先地位，在做大房地产业的同时，做强钢铁制品业务，以谋求持续稳定的发展。增发实施后将有效缓解资金“瓶颈”制约, 预计净资本将增长150%以上，考虑适当的财务杠杆，公司总资产将达到100亿左右，资本实力将大大增强。				国信证券
			公司目前对应08年PE不足15倍，总市值不足80亿，是市场中最便宜的地产股之一。应该看好公司作为区域龙头企业向全国性地产商迈进的投资机遇，这种转变必然带来公司规模和利润的重大变化，福星已经具备了转型成功的可能，随着工资再融资进程的加快，市场将带来公司估值的正常回应，并带来新的投资机会。				长江证券
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.917	1.377	1.89	22.99
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	15.45	10.29	7.50
风 险 提 示
（1）房地产业务目前正处于政策调控周期与市场低潮；（2）原材料价格波动及市场竞争激烈对金属制品业务带来影响。