长电科技（600584）：股权激励锁定业绩稳定增长预期

　　因行业景气度的原因，电子器件类股票长时间被市场看淡，但近期惟独长电科技被诸多机构一致看好，原因是该公司的股权激励方案锁定了公司未来5年的业绩增长率，从而使该股既具备了较好的安全边际，在未来行业景气度回升时还能获取价值增长带来的投资回报。被诸多机构看好而出现的增持行为，也使得该股成为了弱行业中的强公司与弱市中的强势股。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2008/02/24 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.38     0.71 0.95 28.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008/02/24 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.38     0.65 0.84 21.40

                                                                                                      2008/02/25 增持                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.40     0.68 0.78 21.43

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008/02/25 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.40     0.67 1.05 25.00

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                                                                                                 2008/02/22 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.39     0.65 0.80 21.95

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2008/02/25 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.36     0.61 0.79 21.33

                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008/02/26 买入                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.40     0.62         24.80

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (元)
07年	08年	09年
			在目前相对弱势市场中推出股权激励方案，有利于降低未来产生的股权激励摊销费用。高端技术全面突破所带来的客户和产品结构的升级，将促使08年业绩有大幅度的增长。				申银万国
			公司是今年首家推出股权激励计划的电子器件类公司，由于管理和科技人才对行业的重要性，预期今年将有大量公司推出类似计划，对整个行业的增长预期和估值测算产生影响。				中信证券
			公司推出股权激励计划，行权条件是以公司07 年净利润为基数，08-12年扣除非经常性损益后的净利润比07年净利润分别增长35%、62%、94.4%、133.3%、180%以上，且公司加权平均净资产收益率不低于8%。这有助于形成公司业绩稳定增长的预期，减少市场对于公司业绩波动的顾虑。				国泰君安
			股权激励为公司未来业绩增长提供了一个比较确定的安全边际，公司当前正处于技术和产品升级的关键时期，股权激励计划的推行将会使这种升级的进程加快，成功的概率提升。				安信证券
			以FBP技术成功与长电先进的技术储备为标志的技术创新将有效提升长电科技的技术水平与业务结构，改善着长电科技的盈利能力； SiP技术成功转移至长电科技，已成为公司另一个新的产品领域，标志着长电先进已成为长电科技有效的技术孵化器，这为长电科技未来技术发展提供了良好的基础。				国金证券
			公司的股权激励方案给出了一个收益底线，而17.31元的行权价格也表明管理层对于公司未来充满信心。				东海证券
			根据公司方案，股权激励的业绩条件为以07 年为基期，08 年-12 业绩增长率分别为35%、20%、20%、20%、20%。股权激励方案为公司长期持续稳定发展提供了有利保证。			----	国盛证券
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.387	0.656	0.868	23.42
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	46.98	27.71	20.94
风 险 提 示
（1）若人民币升值超过8%，公司盈利可能会低于预期；（2）公司今年有可能获得15%的所得税优惠，但实际时间不确定。