在年初大雪灾时，人们关注到了煤运；在石油等能源紧缺时，人们想到了油运；在我国成为最大货物出口国时，人们一定会注意到散货航运。为此，能够集煤运、油运、散货航运业务于一身，并且都占有相当市场比例的公司一定是个优质的蓝筹公司，以这个标准来看，中海发展自然是当仁不让。所以，中海发展以优良的业绩、稳健的成长性、行业龙头的地位一直以来得到机构投资者的厚爱，每一轮行情的调整都是机构投资者增加配置的契机，本轮行情同样如此。

                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                           1.87 2.23 40.80

                                                                                                                                                                                              1.38     1.99 2.17 38.81

                                                                             

                                                                                                推荐                                                                                                                             1.38     1.85            

                                                                             

                                                                                                推荐                                                                                                                             1.38     1.91            

                                                                                                                                                                                              1.38     1.81 2.13 36.00

                                                                

                                                                                                增持                                                                                                                             1.38     1.76 1.87    

                                                                                     

                                                                                                推荐                                                                                                                             1.38     1.84 2.21    

                                                                                                                                                                                              1.38     1.91 2.05 38.20

                                                                                                                                                                                              1.38     2.05         41.00

                                                                                     

                                                                                                推荐                                                                                                                             1.38     1.80 2.10    

                                                                

                                                                                                推荐                                                                                                                             1.38     2.02 2.52    

                                                                         

                                                                                                增持                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (元)
07年	08年	09年
中银国际	2008/03/26	优大于市	1季度利润预计较07年同期增长50%以上，根据公司船队扩张计划和对市场的展望，计08年公司经营收入将同比增长41.1%。				1.38
中信建投	2008/03/26		公司国内沿海散货包运合同基准运价同比提升了40%，并通过完善燃油附加费回避油价波动风险，08年业绩继续大增长态势基本确立。				增持
银河证券	2008/03/26		公司具有国内部分业务的垄断优势，08年公司大部分业务需求增长已经有合同保证，将继续保持相当的增长速度。			----	-----
平安证券	2008/03/26		公司计划08年处置老旧船舶13艘，08年因处置老旧船将获得1.7亿元的营业外收入，相比较07年营业外收入将下降。			----	-----
安信证券	2008/03/26		公司在沿海煤运市场中占主导地位，COA合同运量一直占公司干散货运量80％以上，散货运输运量和运价得到保障，业务增长稳中有升。				增持
天相投顾	2008/03/26		吨海里燃油成本下降了7.4%，使得投资者对高油价背景下公司盈利能力下降的担忧有所缓解。08年公司将继续受益干散货运价提升。				-----
中金公司	2008/03/26		08年业绩增长主要来自内贸煤运，09-10年业绩增长主要来自外贸油运的大量新船交付以及运价的恢复。				-----
广发证券	2008/03/26		到2010年底，公司船队规模较目前增长50%以上；在目前世界经济增长放缓的背景下，公司介入我国沿海货运市场，具备明显优势。				买入
海通证券	2008/03/26		油价已接近最高点，公司未来不可能面临更大的成本压力，而沿海电煤运输价格上涨40%已明确。公司业绩增长明确，龙头地位显著。			----	买入
兴业证券	2008/03/26		08-10年干散货运输市场仍然会维持较高的景气度。公司燃油成本在08年有望控制在总经营成本的40%左右。				-----
华泰证券	2008/03/26		08年国际干散货市场仍会保持较高景气度，油运市场将好于07年，公司未来三年年均保持20%以上的运力增长，油品运输收益有望好转。				38.00
国泰君安	2008/03/24		受到雪灾导致的沿海煤炭抢运、一季度全球油轮运输运价处在高位因素影响，公司1-2月业务的平均运价同比上涨40.5%。	1.38	1.84	2.06	37.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	1.38	1.888	2.149	38.54
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	20.74	15.16	13.32
风险提示
（1）全球经济增速放缓导致的行业经营风险；（2）燃油价格高涨形成的成本上升风险。