二季度的首个交易日，A股市场便遭遇大跌，这似乎给市场普遍看好的二季度行情开了不太好的头。昨日又有广发证券、长江证券等几家券商研究所的二季度投资策略报告出炉，虽然也认同市场二季度存有反弹的机会，但对反弹行情是否能顺利就此展开，态度并不十分乐观。

　　虽然在估值相对合理、资金面压力有一定减轻的基础上，二季度行情有转暖的希望，但同时部分券商在报告中也透露出机构对反弹幅度、反弹行情的规模的隐忧。

　　物价上涨和经济减速是报告中认为反弹承受宏观方面压力的两大主要因素。广发证券在题为《重估风险 重归均衡》的报告中表示，从历史上看，物价上涨将对实体经济与股票市场都有显著的负面影响。虽然在此轮物价持续上涨困扰下，中国实体经济与企业业绩不会大幅下滑，但物价上涨得到有效控制、出口反弹化解部分业绩担忧，才是反弹的主要契机；而且宏观经济或者财务报告数据不大可能有超预期的表现，这意味着反弹空间将受到制约。

　　长江证券认为，投资收敛引致经济动力衰竭的趋势终将确立，这奠定了今年投资的主基调。基于前期紧缩政策已开始展现效力、热钱流入风险增加使得货币政策可选择空间的缩小、政府压制经济过热信心可能有所缓解等因素，二季度是静待政策面转暖的时期。

　　对于二季度资金面的压力，几家券商研究所存有些许分歧。广发证券认为，二季度资金面压力将明显减轻，但长江证券则认为，“A股市场的市场环境仍没有好转的迹象。”二季度大小非解禁进入低谷，但A股市场资金分流仍十分明显，存款的高速增长、债券市场的上涨以及房价的飙升等种种迹象都显示资金离A股市场而去。

　　既对反弹有所希冀又心怀忧虑的这些券商，并不看好整体性反弹的机会。广发证券建议投资者关注蓝筹股，回避中、小盘题材股。建议投资者关注被错杀的上游行业煤炭股、投资价值显现的钢铁股、有色金属行业；还有因业绩下调压力较小，仍具有良好防御特征的医药、食品饮料和通讯设备类。而银行、地产、石油、电力等行业的投资机会短期内还未来临。长江证券则认为，在投资策略上应重新回归龙头公司与中坚企业，在注意大小非解禁问题的前提下，精选抵御经济周期风险能力强的企业，同时关注如医改、创业板推出等事件性投资机会。

　　2008年4月1日沪深股市技术指标解读

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

                        -233.43 ↓         -62.81 ↓

MA（20）                                                                            3838.89 ↓                                                                     1202.51 ↓                                                                                                                                            

MA（30）                                                                            4014.29 ↓                                                                     1260.36 ↓                                                                                                                                            

MA（60）                                                                            4463.41 ↓                                                                     1350.73 ↓                                                                                                                                            

MA（120）                                                                     4915.61 ↓                                                                1361.79 ↓                                                                                                                                        

指标名称	上证指数	深证指数	指标名称	上证指数	深证指数
移动平均线 MA（5）	3480.07 ↓	1103.00 ↓	指数平滑异同平均线 DIF	-255.68 ↓	-71.08 ↓ MA        MA（10）                                                                 3601.84 ↓                                                                     1125.05 ↓                                                                MACD(12,26,9) MACD

                                                     58.13 ↑                     47.72 ↑

动向指标         +DI

5.51    ↓

8.95    ↓             DMI(10)        -DI                             43.88 ↑                            46.72 ↑             ADX

                     25.34    ↓                         25.86 ↓                     AR(26)                                     117.71 ↑            117.53 ↓

                                                                                                                                                              -1047.92 ↓            -335.56 ↓

                                    10.85    ↓                         12.78 ↓                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                              30     --             40     --

                                -15.99 ↓                         -17.72 ↓                     OSC         MA(5)                         -207.18 ↓            -55.28 ↓

                                 -3.43    ↓                         -2.91 ↓                     MA(5)                                     -680.23 ↓            -193.89 ↓

                                                                                   63.34    ↑            93.45    ↑

相对强弱指标 RSI(5)	23.47    ↓	20.61 ↓	人气指标         BR(26)	105.42 ↑	100.29 ↓ RSI        RSI(10)
简易波动指标     EMV	-1278.28 ↓	-413.21 ↓                                                                                                                          EMVMA
随机指标    % K	17.11    ↓	25.87 ↓                                                                                                         KDJ(9,3,3) % D                             20.24    ↓                             32.42 ↓                                                                                                             % J
心理线         PSY(10)	40     --	60     --                                                                                                                          PSY         PSY(20)
超买超卖    CCI(14)	-139.18 ↓	-161.05 ↓	震荡量指标     OSC(10)	-272.94 ↓	-107.02 ↓ ROC(12)
乖离率     BIAS(6)	-5.02    ↓	-8.36 ↓	平均差     DMA(10,50)	-673.20 ↑	-189.70 ↑ MA(5)
威廉指标    W%R	96.31    ↓	98.97 ↓	成交量比率     VR(25)	61.77    ↓	99.40    ↑                                                                                                                          VR         MA(5)

　　小结：昨日沪深两市呈震荡下行态势，两指数均创出近期新低，成交量较前略有放大。MACD绿柱伸长，短线指标继续回落，CCI和WR超卖，KDJ形成向下交叉，DMA发出买入信号，预计后市大盘有探低反弹的可能。