债券型基金仍然建议将作为保守型投资，继续关注我们一直推荐的嘉实债券、嘉实超短债、华夏债券、富国天利增长、工银瑞信增强收益。

　　货币基金仍是保守型避险品种和短期流动性管理工具。

　　随着分红的逐步实现，基金净值将成为影响封闭式基金市场交易价格的最主要因素。在二季度股票市场迎来阶段性投资机会的同时，封闭式基金的市场交易价格也将随之上涨；当股票市场出现较大震荡时，封闭式基金也将随之震荡。综合上述因素，结合我们的选股原则，2008年二季度建议在股票市场企稳后，关注有高分红预期，并且有较强选股能力的封闭式基金：基金科祥、基金科汇、基金裕隆、基金开元、基金兴华、基金金泰、基金裕阳。

　　⊙长城证券 阎红

　　张大伟 制图

　　开放式基金

　　偏股型基金：各类基金都将获得净收益，由于市场经历了较大幅度的下跌，在2008年2季度选时能力对于基金的影响已经不大，选股能力强的基金有望获得超额收益。成长类小盘风格基金将有较好的市场表现。指数型基金净值也将随市场回暖而回升，有阶段性操作的机会中小盘风格指数型基金表现仍将好于核心资产类指数型。创业板的推出对于中小板指数存在扩容压力，如果创业板推出之前涨幅过大，可阶段性获利了结。

　　债券型基金：2007年一季度的CPI在高位运行，加息等紧缩性宏观调整政策预期在二季度仍然会影响债市收益。但由于人民币升值、股市震荡和信贷紧缩等因素使得债市的资金面仍然宽裕，预计债市仍将在高位震荡。股市回暖将带动部分股票配置比重较高的债券型基金净值回升。建议将债券型作为保守型投资，继续关注嘉实债券、嘉实超短债、华夏债券、富国天利增长、工银瑞信增强收益。

　　货币市场基金在2008年一季度的七日年化收益率较2007年三、四季度明显降低，但仍保持在一个较高水平。2008年一季度的CPI在高位运行，加息等紧缩性宏观调整政策预期在二季度仍然仍然存在，货币市场基金收益仍将保持较好水平。股票市场震荡调整中仍是较好的保守型避险品种和短期流动性管理工具。建议保守型投资者和有短期流动性管理需要的投资者继续关注我们一直推荐的：嘉实货币、华夏现金增利、上投摩根货币、中银国际货币、富国天时货币、建信货币。

　　封闭式基金

　　2007年四季度以来，封闭式基金市场走势强于主要股指，在2008年一季度的调整中表现出较好的抗跌性。展望2008年二季度，封闭式基金2007年中期已经实现可供分配利润份额平均仍有0.61元,按照2007年12月31日的封闭式基金净值来计算仍有份额平均1.6元的未实现利润，预期2008年二季度封基分红预期对封闭式基金的折价率回归仍有支撑。但随着分红的逐步实现，基金净值将成为影响封闭式基金市场交易价格的最主要因素。在二季度股票市场迎来阶段性投资机会的同时，封闭式基金的市场交易价格也将随之上涨；当股票市场出现较大震荡时，封闭式基金也将随之震荡。

　　综合上述因素，结合我们的选股原则，2008年二季度建议在股票市场企稳后，关注有高分红预期，并且有较强选股能力的封闭式基金：基金科祥、基金科汇、基金裕隆、基金开元、基金兴华、基金金泰、基金裕阳。

　　投资组合

　　2008年二季度股票市场的阶段性投资机会中，成长类股票和蓝筹都会有表现的机会，在基金组合配置中可以兼顾这两种类型的基金，其中大盘风格基金给于标配，小盘风格基金可以给于超配。同时对于偏重消费类行业配置、选股能力强的基金给予适当倾斜。基于我们一贯的选股原则，考虑到二季度基金可能出现的市场特点，我们建议二季度关注：

　　华夏大盘精选 上投摩根阿尔法、嘉实增长、华夏红利、易方达科讯、富国天益价值、广发小盘成长。指数型基金在二季度适合波段操作，各种风格的指数型基金都会有表现的机会。深证100、中小板指数基金、沪深300指数基金将有表现机会，但创业板的推出对于中小板存在扩容压力，如果创业板推出之前涨幅过大，可阶段性获利了结。核心资产类指数基金如上证50、上证180等也有机会，但期望值不宜过高。

　　广发小盘成长

                

基本情况	净值增长率与主要股指1年来涨幅比较

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

基金公司	广发	基金经理	陈仕德
基金成立日	20050202	投资类型	股票型
单位净值	2.53	投资风格	增值型
累计净值	3.69	基金份额	58.95亿
07年四季度股票占净资产比重：	87.16%
投资目标	依托中国良好的宏观经济发展形势和资本市场的高速成长，通过投资于具有高成长性的小市值公司股票，以寻求资本的长期增值。
综合评价
●广发基金管理公司同样是优秀基金管理公司，不论在2004年、2005年调整市中还是在2006年以来的大牛市中都表现出超越市场的盈利能力和风险控制能力。其所属基金管理公司旗下基金整体业绩优秀、风险控制得力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ●广发基金管理公司获2007年、2005年、2004年金牛基金管理公司。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ●广发小盘成长成立以来业绩表现优秀，基金经理稳定，是中小盘风格基金的优秀代表。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ●该基金资产配置方面行业配置集中度较高，重仓股配置比重较低，偏重成长股，投资风格积极灵活，在震荡市中往往有较好的表现。

　　易方达科讯

            

基本情况	净值增长率与主要股指1年来涨幅比较

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

基金公司	易方达	基金经理	侯清濯
基金成立日	19930112	投资类型	股票型
单位净值	0.86	投资风格	股票型
累计净值	4.53	基金份额	58.95亿
07年四季度股票占净资产比重	92.64%
投资目标	根据市场环境变化，综合运用多种投资策略，追求基金资产长期稳健增值。
综合评价
●易方达基金管理公司治理结构完善、旗下基金整体业绩优秀、风险控制得力、团队投资使业绩持续性较高。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ●获2007年度、2005年度、2004年度十大金牛基金管理公司。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ●易方达科讯是由封闭式基金封转开而来的优秀基金。对于市场的把握能力较强，长期而言是一只能给投资者带来持续较好回报的优秀基金。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ●该基金资产配置中行业配置较高，重仓股配置适中，投资风格稳健。

　　数据来源：wind资讯 长城证券金融研究所 数据截至日期：2008年3月14日