特变电工（600089）：攻守兼备的新能源产业股

　　随着对“多晶硅联合新能源项目”的投入，特变电工已经成为新能源行业中的新贵，更难能可贵的是，该公司本身就是电站设备行业的龙头，具有着优异的经营业绩。同时，作为新能源股的估值溢价在行情中还远没完全体现出来。电站设备行业的业绩使该股具有了良好的安全边际，切入新能源产业赋予了该股良好的预期。攻守兼备的特质必然会使该股逐渐成为市场各路投资者的关注热点。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
08年	09年	10年
广发证券	2008/04/08	买入	公司未来三年复合增长率为36%，由于公司表现出稳定的高速成长性，预计武汉商联会有进一步有利于公司的重组。	0.48	0.62	0.79	20.00
国信证券	2008/04/08	推荐	08年一季度门店快速扩张及销售快速增长导致收入同比增长25%。物价上涨对于零售商是比较有利的，财务结果就是利润率的提升。	0.47	0.60	0.72	21.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ~                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      24.00
长江证券	2008/04/08	推荐	公司一季度预增表明公司经营异常稳健，为08年全年增长打下了坚实基础。预计2007-2010年公司的复合增长率为35%。	0.46	0.63	0.77	18.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ~                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20.00
银河证券	2008/04/03	推荐	武汉国资委持有13.63%限售股，这部分股权不可能减持；其余限售股非常分散且已在07年3月份解禁后得到了充分消化。公司未来推出股权激励计划将是股价上涨的催化剂。	0.43	0.58	0.72	18.25
德帮证券	2008/03/28	买入	公司区域性渗透式发展模式符合当前国内实际情况，07年公司在重庆地区亏损2800万元，预计08年至少减亏50%的目标是可以实现的。	0.50	0.68	----	20.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ~                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      27.00
国泰君安	2008/03/24	增持	08年新增仓储卖场不少于10家，便民超市80家。公司未来发展主要定位在湖北省的二三线城市，成长性值得期待。	0.50	0.80	1.05	25.00
华泰证券	2008/03/21	推荐	公司经过长期建设已具备快速开店能力，08 年将进一步加大直采力度，扩大销售占比，预计08年公司毛利率仍将有所提升。	0.49	0.65	----	-----
兴业证券	2008/03/21	推荐	公司一向亏损的百货业务在07年净利润为1999万元，公司具有较高的区域渗透度和管理能力，长期成长性较为明晰。	0.37	0.46	----	15.23
国金证券	2008/03/21	买入	武商联集团的远景是对旗下资产进行整合，未来可能整体上市，公司将成为集团超商业务运作的平台。投资超市业态武汉中百是首选。	0.44	0.60	0.79	-----
中信建投	2008/03/21	增持	公司在湖北省境内二、三线城市具有广阔发展空间，公司以每年新开10家仓储超市和80家便民超市扩张，区域优势将进一步强化。	0.45	0.62	0.80	21.70
宏源证券	2008/03/21	增持	07年仓储超市和便利超市直采商品销售额同比增长260%和157.84%，毛利率达到29.04%和0.99%，08年公司毛利率仍将有所提升。	0.47	0.65	----	18.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ~                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20.00
上海证券	2008/03/21	跑赢大市	公司配股资金到位有利于公司后续网点持续性开拓，新开网点的外延式扩张，及已有门店内生性增长，使得公司发展后劲十分充足。	0.42	0.57	----	18.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.457	0.622	0.806	20.22
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	32.27	23.71	18.30
风 险 提 示
（1）市场竞争加剧和公司扩张的风险；（2）公司在重庆地区的经营情况能否迎来根本好转；（3）在国内高通胀的情况下毛利率水平是否可以保持稳定增长。