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      2008 年 5 月 13 日
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      | C5版:应时数据
    39只个股在本轮反弹行情中未涨反跌
    涨幅前十
    按行业、概念分资金流向一览
    跌幅前十
    换手前十
    振幅前十
    AB股比价较大个股一览
    部分连续上涨个股一览
    部分连续下跌个股一览
    部分成交量突增个股一览
    部分主动增仓个股一览
    申万风格指数
    三大指数表现
    部分光头阳线、光脚阴线个股一览
    部分远离当日成本个股一览
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
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    39只个股在本轮反弹行情中未涨反跌
    2008年05月13日      来源:上海证券报      作者:任建国
      ⊙中信建投研发部 田东红

      

      大盘自6124.04点下跌至2008年4月22日的最低点2990.79点后,开始快速反弹,不到10个交易日,反弹最高幅度超过20%。截至5月9日,按收盘点位计算,反弹高度也达到15.95%。

      据统计,在4月22日至5月9日这波快速反弹中,有880只个股的涨幅都超过了大盘,达到16%以上,其中还有42只个股的涨幅超过50%以上;剔除停牌的个股,还有590只个股的涨幅没有超过大盘,其中39只个股不涨反跌,还有51只个股的涨幅不超过5%,即涨幅不到指数的1/3。这些远远落后大盘的个股是否存在补涨的交易机会?我们要先分析他们大幅落后的原因。

      首先,前期大盘暴跌期间停牌,4月22日后开盘补跌的个股是主要原因。比较典型的如宏达股份、许继电器、ST迪康、中关村等。宏大股份2007年9月底就停牌,一直到2008年4月21日才复牌交易。因此开盘后就以连续跌停的方式补跌,跌幅已经超过了50%。许继电器则在5月5日复牌后,连续5个交易日下跌,跌幅也达到35%。

      其次,为寻找合理定价走势独立,不受大盘影响而连续下跌。如三力士、濮耐股份、紫金矿业、奥特迅等,都是近期刚上市的新股定价较高,持续下跌为寻求合理价位。再如ST中福,重组复牌后首日定价较高而向下寻求支撑。

      再就是前期大盘暴跌期间走势强劲独立,现在正常震荡的个股,典型的如冠农股份、三联商社等,大盘暴跌期间不跌反涨,涨幅分别为50%和14%,因此不受本次大盘反弹的影响,股价应该属于正常整理震荡。

      剔除以上三种特殊情况,其他不少个股在1月15日至4月21日之间随大盘暴跌而暴跌,且跌幅甚至超过大盘,但同样在反弹行情中表现较差,这类股票若分析没有特殊原因,就值得关注其存在的交易机会。

      在4月22日至5月9日这波快速反弹中,涨幅没超过5%的90家公司中,有27家在1月15日至4月21日之间的跌幅却都超过了40%,这些公司中除了个别绩差的庄股炒作外,还有不少属于绩优股,2007年每股收益超过0.1元的就有66家,其中28家在0.5元以上。更重要的是,还有占1/3的个股市盈率低于市场平均水平。其中16家公司的市盈率不超过20倍(其中4家主要靠重组收益使得2007年每股收益大增)。

      从行业和基本面看,不少公司所处的行业和基本状况都还是较好,收入现金流也非常好,这类公司大幅下跌,即使不属于完全错杀,但至少应该赶上大盘的反弹幅度才算正常,其短期内反弹不尽人意,应该很快会赶上来,因此至少存在短期的交易机会。如电力行业的汕电力、大唐发电;化工行业的新乡化纤、两 面 针、华邦制药;机械设备行业的江特电机、苏常柴;甚至还有兴业银行、交通银行两家银行股等。此类股票业绩优良,基本面良好,未来也有发展空间。仔细分析后一定有不少个股存在较好的机会。

      本轮反弹行情中表现不佳的个股一览

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    股票代码股票名称复权区间涨跌幅(2008-04-22,2008-05-09)     复权区间涨跌幅(2008-01-15,2008-04-21)(%)每股收益(摊薄)(2007,末期)(元)市盈率(2008-05-09)(倍)净资产收益率(扣除,加权)(2007,末期)(%)销售毛利率(2007,末期)(%)净利润增长率(2007,末期)(%)营业收入增长率(2007,末期)(%)营业收入现金含量(2007,末期)(倍)所属行业
    600331宏达股份-47.46-101.072535.3624.7638.12-13.419.271.1395有色金属冶炼
    000400许继电气-34.996.420.306655.515.4830.54-10.613.340.9932电气设备
    002224三 力 士-34.920.45148.1518.3916.6236.1120.441.1034橡胶
    000628*ST高新-34.72-1.2354-97.1622.24-70.18-4.571.2876房地产开发
    600466*ST 迪康-33.52-5.010.0314260.94-2.8339.5810423.680.9067中药
    002225濮耐股份-29.330.249849.8920.8640.7338.6133.280.6456建筑材料
    601899紫金矿业-22.840.193961.2860.7739.4349.9739.611.0695有色金属冶炼
    002227奥 特 迅-21.230.684342.1241.1749.1319.3620.50.8941电气设备
    600716*ST 耀华-18.510.0367217.09-4.5410.28106.6421.580.8437建筑材料
    002114罗平锌电-18.23-18.130.982830.0421.8313.8814.3426.241.1082有色金属冶炼
    600497驰宏锌锗-18.06-15.833.361516.6549.1334.6726.3335.721.1208有色金属冶炼
    601001大同煤业-15.11.740.596656.7412.9346.041.55301.0159煤炭开采
    002042飞亚股份-14.35-0.5811-24.3-3.2-7695.87-12.850.7418纺织
    002226江南化工-12.80.629948.5129.3132.71-12.2915.51.1083化学制品
    600084ST 新 天-12.47-25.860.0156604.2917.61100.9672.170.9323饮料制造
    600687华 盛 达-11.56-27.720.0631172.230.6510.6-14.3370.051.1952计算机应用
    000820金城股份-10.42-38.110.313921.912.1819.87759.0923.960.9242造纸
    000592ST 中 福-10.081171.321.28519.1550.3424248.26-98.151.3947林业
    002229鸿博股份-8.990.792935.5732.7442.54-4.7344.771.0972印刷业
    600682南京新百-8.75-3.50.266969.46.1223.5749-39.921.1678零售
    600593大连圣亚-7.78-19.960.0314316.84-4.7935.96106.9112.751.0424景点
    600249两 面 针-7.35-42.942.097311.37-0.9821.38316.40.420.8316化学制品
    002228合兴包装-7.060.467945.0230.0519.1672.9182.550.7612纸制品业
    000531穗恒运A-6.69-18.840.0361359.7314.8227.75-93.14331.103电力
    000570苏常柴A-6.29-41.590.449218.259.6911.3482.898.671.1234普通机械
    000605*ST 四环-5.15-45.250.0374403.54-125.6325.16105.2630.530.9482生物制品
    000040深 鸿 基-4.96-40.250.163833.94-6.2741.771518.84-15.791.0489综合
    000982*ST 中绒-4.23-28.910.668613.696.4814.74239.37-7.131.4593服装
    600116三峡水利-3.36-33.690.19542.8210.2433.6279.489.881.2053电力
    002007华兰生物-3.29-18.370.554872.6417.9953.7752.18-1.081.3156生物制品
    600898三联商社-2.8313.95-0.0224-3.996.06-444.94-6.571.1625零售
    600385*ST 金泰-2.78-47.790.0584155.6575.61108.7598.760.4064生物制品
    600054黄山旅游-2.69-34.70.320762.0114.8844.4811.620.341.0101景点
    000691ST 寰 岛-2.6-49.230.075359.75-4.7-0.08129.27-23.050.9793综合
    600722ST 金 化-2.58-3.412.6832.67-25.12169.45-66.381.0314化学原料
    002034美 欣 达-2.33-28.410.281232.83-3.948.6131.81-5.510.9968纺织
    600251冠农股份-2.0451.090.07691202.45-2.0116.32151.0975.481.3012种植业
    000779ST 派 神-1.83-36.60.144840.74-1.0226.88228.465.970.854纺织
    002004华邦制药-0.05-49.211.564112.5322.6762.9221.8671.031.0594化学制药
    600507长力股份0.15-33.20.412416.0810.764.78335.17321.110.7494钢铁
    002033丽江旅游0.26-39.280.672429.2221.3780.8641.3719.781.1408景点
    000931中 关 村0.270.1319112.2-24.3520.232606.03-21.071.3717房地产开发
    600003ST东北高0.6-24.670.193625.996.8956.39101.57.581.041路桥
    601328交通银行0.64-41.390.418722.517.149.563.5143.4银行
    000530大冷股份0.85-30.450.368122.477.8717.642.322.270.9297普通机械
    000819岳阳兴长1.09-16.35-0.01110.398.53-163.72-1.490.6537石油化工
    000899赣能股份1.13-31.30.0636127.061.96.71-41.47-11.311.0454电力
    600352浙江龙盛1.25-28.650.588422.0325.8622.4382.3735.231.0247化学制品
    002095生意宝1.51-34.640.702775.4212.5690.4851.2824.231.0785网络服务
    002067景兴纸业1.52-45.210.210544.4210.2819.2641.3314.871.1572造纸
    600217*ST 秦岭1.56-44.20.0247158.02-15.1115.74105.75-11.480.6928建筑材料
    600020中原高速1.81-34.480.320317.5812.0460.644.3212.271.0236路桥
    000978桂林旅游2.02-32.690.300153.7411.6238.917.4610.941.0455景点
    000338潍柴动力2.05-34.133.878616.8441.6623.61172.53312.680.702汽车零部件

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    股票代码股票名称复权区间涨跌幅(2008-04-22,2008-05-09)     复权区间涨跌幅(2008-01-15,2008-04-21)(%)每股收益(摊薄)(2007,末期)(元)市盈率(2008-05-09)(倍)净资产收益率(扣除,加权)(2007,末期)(%)销售毛利率(2007,末期)(%)净利润增长率(2007,末期)(%)营业收入增长率(2007,末期)(%)营业收入现金含量(2007,末期)(倍)所属行业
    600280南京中商2.19-35.460.299257.826.7618.5634.4716.521.2555零售
    600511国药股份2.39-12.020.985754.6721.1410.2557.0527.141.0917医药商业
    601398工商银行2.5-27.740.243325.2415.9244.5366.4440.64银行
    000018ST中冠A2.57-24.26-0.6879-46-15.27-501.33-57.421.7056纺织
    600132重庆啤酒2.61-23.920.427859.7216.9747.916.036.491.1099饮料制造
    000534汕电力A2.67-57.870.565213.610.4326.951367.6129.910.6835电力
    600735*ST 锦股2.77-54.530.72849.6910.446.85609.332305.441.1187饮料制造
    600376首开股份2.82-56.320.391749.27-7.6928.7989.4456.711.1334房地产开发
    601866中海集运2.89-47.380.284522.5318.9413.68396.6626.610.7715水路运输
    000021长城开发3-41.80.806414.056.242.13112.9226.110.9158计算机设备
    600773ST 雅 砻3.25-19.23-0.2264-102.8356.95-1236-17.61.2038中药
    000049德赛电池3.32-42.50.0522160.781.1312.85-69.54-12.421.1865化工新材料
    601166兴业银行3.36-44.061.717220.6323.5849.18126.0461.450银行
    600057*ST 夏新3.37-43.98-1.8879.37-697.24-36.381.2847通信设备
    000004ST 国 农3.37-38-0.1104-13.238.86-1425.98-15.141.3015房地产开发
    002005德豪润达3.55-40.580.191660.873.2916.55345.817.030.955白色家电
    002176江特电机3.56-49.570.464338.8113.9725.0720.0924.960.7167电气设备
    000949新乡化纤3.61-54.280.531214.7317.3321.41258.2924.011.0364化学纤维
    600519贵州茅台3.61-23.462.999459.2639.3387.9583.2447.61.0276饮料制造
    600036招商银行3.75-30.161.036630.1624.5851.06124.3565.340银行
    000005ST 星 源3.78-31.30.084664.885.2362.91219.12-9.580.8639房地产开发
    002026山东威达3.8-26.850.296627.656.921.6926.115.070.8707普通机械
    002021中捷股份3.97-44.230.295533.699.1427.4527.498.141.2331专用设备
    000919金陵药业4.09-47.320.610113.778.0229.2846.3111.720.9136中药
    000565渝三峡A4.32-7.340.1595236.16.1919.86561.0418.330.6381化学制品
    002045广州国光4.34-37.250.393625.6110.1424.2153.36-1.990.9779其他电子器件
    000869张 裕A4.39-4.541.205567.1130.9269.761.1125.971.26饮料制造
    002059世博股份4.43-19.640.161262.835.9437.3594.5428.171.3117景点
    600212*ST江泉4.52-53.61-0.7487-21.96-21.67-1129.05-7.460.9815综合
    601872招商轮船4.57-37.760.247136.149.543.97-3.85-1.10.9501水路运输
    600235民丰特纸4.64-11.70.106272.15319.16259.6914.511.2067造纸
    600567山鹰纸业4.66-31.510.1440.435.1214.87-48.0212.421.0773造纸
    600751S*ST天海4.68-52.2-0.3022.0636.84-18.181.0955水路运输
    600141兴发集团4.8-2.310.362974.597.0920.0373.247.520.9863化学原料
    600137ST 浪 莎4.94-54.154.22064.73-15.125.43243.4175.530.9729服装
    601991大唐发电4.96-41.070.290744.4413.1928.0116.8831.851.1605电力
    600322天房发展5.04-410.0508139.542.3518.6451.72102.050.7085房地产开发
    600714*ST 金瑞5.05-41.940.0147592.84-16.8217.17103.13-28.240.5681化学原料
    000498*ST丹化5.2-57.6-1.8643-107.67-97.62-91.710.0761化学纤维
    600717天 津 港5.24-33.970.414452.6610.6241.416.5714.630.8861港口
    600398凯诺科技5.29-35.890.453716.6610.0830.6448.9612.771.0088服装
    600626申达股份5.34-33.850.360218.636.357.1682.75-1.260.9648纺织
    600801华新水泥5.48-45.340.883831.8318.6123.7589.8634.041.1921建筑材料
    600622嘉宝集团5.59-38.480.384723.0818.3926.5191.9948.350.9239综合
    000626如意集团5.66-23.070.202240.611.493.865567.4653.051.0847农产品加工
    600829三精制药5.68-32.840.693527.0817.9748.3823.689.690.8077化学制药
    002027七喜控股5.69-26.680.173135.422.166.2-10.9-10.111.0045计算机设备
    600193创兴置业5.73-49.260.705713.8617.5427.96601.3-27.114.8415综合
    000043中航地产5.76-50.510.67651918.9736.21108.6655.910.9598房地产开发
    600120浙江东方5.76-38.460.243633.917.528.7728.338.41.0173贸易
    000632三木集团5.79-42.080.110547.982.7510.2139.88-6.661.0362综合
    002188新 嘉 联5.88-42.070.300344.9515.9625.61-14.35-1.750.9298其他电子器件

      (数据来源:聚源数据,中信建投研发部)