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      2008 年 5 月 28 日
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      | C5版:应时数据
    寻觅成长性及估值水平兼顾的优势个股
    涨幅前十
    按行业、概念分资金流向一览
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    换手前十
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    申万风格指数
    三大指数表现
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    寻觅成长性及估值水平兼顾的优势个股
    2008年05月28日      来源:上海证券报      作者:⊙天相投顾 王巍峰
      ⊙天相投顾 王巍峰

      

      2008年一季报显示,今年第一季度上市公司整体业绩增速较去年同期明显放缓,净利润出现下滑的公司所占比例较去年有所上升。在CPI持续高位、货币紧缩、成本上升、出口下降等众多不利因素共存的背景下,企业未来盈利能否保持持续较快的增长就显得尤为重要。2007年和今年第一季度均实现了较高的盈利水平且表现出良好成长性的公司,相对而言,将有望在未来获得持续的增长。

      伴随着市场6000点以来大幅下跌和上市公司业绩持续增长,市场估值水平逐渐下降,以5月27日收盘价计算,沪深两市全部A股前推12个月总股本加权滚动市盈率为26.59倍,其中钢铁、航运两个行业市盈率已落在20倍以内;有色、综合、公路、汽车及配件、贸易等行业市盈率也均在20倍附近;之前一直保持较高估值的房地产、保险等行业,目前市盈率也大幅下降至30倍左右(见表1)。由于各行业估值状况不同,对于估值低于行业整体水平的个股,无疑在估值上可以说是具有优势的。

      我们根据天相系统,以“市盈率低于行业整体水平30%以上、2007年每股收益超过0.4元、净利润增速高于40%、2008年第一季度每股收益超过0.1元、净利润增速超过25%”为口径,筛选出了一部分成长性良好、估值水平相对具有优势的个股(见表2)。此外,由于钢铁等少数行业市盈率数值极低,所以行业内个股很少能满足低于行业整体水平30%以上的条件,但是这些个股在估值及成长性方面也同样具备优势。在近期指数持续表现疲弱的市场中,这些成长性及估值水平兼顾的个股不失为较好的防御性品种,而其中短期跌幅巨大的个股,或许也存在着交易性机会。

      表1:            沪深股市行业板块估值及成长性分析

                净利润增长率(%)            (2007年)                 (2007年)                (亿元)

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                       

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                

                                                                                    

                                                                                

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                       

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                       

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

                                                                                    

    行业 公司家数总股本加权滚动市盈率(倍)(2008.Q1)                 (2008.Q1)                 摊薄每股收益(元)            净利润增长率(%)            总市值

                                                         摊薄每股收益(元)

    钢铁 46 18.280.17015.420.61628.7110,534
    航运业26 19.840.18351.750.59198.157,616
    有色 44 20.670.1695.310.6656.559,797
    综合 48 21.240.03390.610.163305.851,955
    公路 17 21.270.085-7.400.36423.481,835
    汽车及配件64 21.550.11743.980.414140.993,962
    贸易 22 22.080.13629.960.623336.041,347
    石油 8 25.890.145-27.290.726-0.1332,876
    石化 4 26.450.069-68.370.5996.8511,250
    总计 156026.590.11817.160.41949.86269,428
    元器件55 27.440.04434.170.21510286.551,699
    民航业11 28.070.095557.460.308191.603,705
    计算机硬件23 28.530.041-37.210.3441442.991,031
    机械 11928.670.12731.380.53675.086,648
    证券 8 28.770.30523.371.849484.935,834
    日用品11 28.780.028-49.640.453123.46303
    家电 47 29.330.07192.250.2051332.852,527
    铁路运输3 29.690.11417.860.37546.462,429
    化纤 27 30.170.015496.730.046192.681,155
    造纸包装36 30.810.0801.600.327114.741,472
    保险 3 30.850.234-28.071.157120.3514,236
    纺织服装66 30.990.052-20.330.265271.362,302
    房地产11231.480.07568.510.37898.668,588
    电力 56 31.690.019-75.040.35424.507,982
    交通与仓储12 31.870.06814.500.32033.29677
    银行 14 35.270.12291.000.29157.8666,101
    化工 10838.310.155178.930.374169.857,044
    建材 61 39.100.04989.110.292132.433,099
    电气设备45 39.500.11818.450.52428.133,000
    建筑业31 39.560.04751.700.26891.714,454
    商业 56 41.430.12645.810.40274.933,381
    通信 44 42.530.0420.170.209352.343,996
    煤炭 27 43.910.24550.960.72927.9818,279
    供水供气13 45.620.04719.100.2149.76906
    酒店旅游22 46.680.018-13.060.252135.82664
    信托及其它4 47.420.027-8.550.326153325.88317
    软件及服务34 50.140.07751.660.411275.571,491
    农林牧副渔50 51.930.044148.140.194506.202,347
    食品 48 52.140.16559.470.42672.186,117
    传媒 16 57.090.04628.870.22465.781,285
    医药 11970.770.09241.100.315166.685,185

      表2:                         部分成长性良好、估值水平相对具有优势的个股

    代码     名称                                                                                         基本每股收益(元)         净利润增长率(%)         (2007年)                 (2007年)                (4.22-5.27)            

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                          

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                         

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                          

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                         

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                            

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                      

    股票     股票     收盘价(元)(5.27)滚动市盈率(倍)行业市盈率(倍)高出行业市盈率(%)(2008Q1)                 (2008Q1)                 基本每股收益(元)            净利润增长率(%)            涨幅(%)             行业
    000001深发展A25.0218.4035.27-47.840.4487.671.2787.686.24银行
    000028一致药业18.2038.3270.77-45.840.1345.700.4355.7121.74医药
    000422湖北宜化21.3123.3638.31-39.020.32162.940.7276.1525.42化工
    600000浦发银行27.2721.0635.27-40.280.65186.551.2663.859.22银行
    600015华夏银行11.5119.5935.27-44.460.2080.430.5044.21-2.05银行
    600016民生银行7.1217.4335.27-50.590.13122.480.4868.57-4.43银行
    600030中信证券32.3215.6928.77-45.450.76101.034.01408.8416.02证券
    600036招商银行29.4722.6935.27-35.670.43156.661.04124.36-5.27银行
    600655豫园商城32.4424.5841.43-40.660.2337.881.26224.540.00商业
    000338潍柴动力61.2612.8821.55-40.251.37180.324.42172.54-4.27汽车及配件
    002028思源电气26.6822.2839.50-43.600.43319.121.6582.07-1.00电气设备
    002088鲁阳股份16.7725.8239.10-33.950.1237.140.9963.060.72建材
    600352浙江龙盛12.1018.0838.31-52.800.16106.290.6582.38-2.58化工
    600029南方航空10.4516.1228.07-42.590.18523.400.42786.12-0.29民航业
    000516开元控股12.4021.7841.43-47.420.1530.170.5379.566.07商业
    600409三友化工19.8224.5138.31-36.030.36251.140.55110.1217.63化工
    002062宏润建设16.2822.2039.56-43.890.1727.420.7067.6917.29建筑业
    600332广州药业14.7432.2270.77-54.460.1445.960.4141.1121.62医药
    600202哈空调19.8017.8039.50-54.950.24182.590.96118.9812.95电气设备
    000488晨鸣纸业15.3820.7630.81-32.630.28171.950.60171.127.93造纸包装
    600062双鹤药业29.7729.2170.77-58.720.2579.680.99165.6214.19医药
    600827友谊股份14.7119.4341.43-53.090.1348.670.71146.616.75商业
    002146荣盛发展10.1221.0031.48-33.290.271636.980.8064.18-2.50房地产
    000939凯迪电力13.6615.2339.50-61.450.1125.841.15187.7512.15电气设备
    600596新安股份62.9924.3438.31-36.481.14312.731.7250.1015.60化工
    000989九 芝 堂13.2023.7370.77-66.470.1344.290.52186.8116.30医药
    600196复星医药14.7124.3470.77-65.610.16157.530.51142.6515.92医药
    600150中国船舶102.0619.4128.67-32.311.49135.915.53139.5710.81机械
    600173卧龙地产9.3616.2331.48-48.450.15315.590.4469.7128.22房地产
    600840新湖创业13.4510.8131.48-65.660.571479.090.7163.1612.08房地产
    600479千金药业23.4123.8570.77-66.300.1328.501.1591.456.61医药
    600685广船国际36.0117.0528.67-40.520.5267.721.90251.6013.31机械
    600102莱钢股份14.9211.4818.28-37.220.3026.931.2448.119.79钢铁
    000032深桑达A11.4916.4642.53-61.300.31422.130.45108.4822.10通信
    600862南通科技11.7217.0628.67-40.470.22260.440.53210.8824.68机械
    000609绵世股份26.9318.2931.48-41.912.29674.920.95315.5232.09房地产
    002019鑫富药业21.3015.4070.77-78.230.22133.381.262651.3833.13医药
    600880DR博瑞传15.4537.7857.09-33.820.1870.920.74149.226.39传媒
    601009南京银行14.3222.5135.27-36.200.22171.510.6252.95-5.29银行
    601166兴业银行32.9416.0435.27-54.510.62119.251.75126.04-6.30银行
    601169北京银行15.2921.6735.27-38.550.26189.800.6356.433.45银行
    601328交通银行8.7817.5935.27-50.140.16100.280.4363.52-9.86银行
    000933神火股份44.0024.6843.91-43.810.5536.071.64105.3328.67煤炭
    000952广济药业19.8019.9970.77-71.750.231144.200.781079.7523.13医药