中环股份（002129）：尚待挖掘的太阳能产业股

　　原油价格大幅上涨使市场热捧新能源股，其中太阳能产业股更是重点。但A股市场中具有真材实料的太阳能公司并不多，还没得到市场挖掘的公司更是稀少。诸多机构深度研究显示，中环股份目前虽然主营是单晶硅业务，但新近与原料商签署长达10年的多晶硅供货合同，加上其本身所具备的太阳能电池的制造技术，预示着该公司进入太阳能产业已经指日可待。已经具有的优良业绩、较低的估值水平、进入太阳能产业的前景等特点，使该公司已经得到机构们高度垂青。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
08年	09年	10年
国金证券	2008/05/28	买入	中环股份单晶硅业务未来将保持高速成长，而多晶硅供应是保障单晶硅业务高速成长的重要基础。公司多晶硅供销合同所采取的销售模式属于长单模式，根据合同计算，2008 年采购价格约为108.28 美元/公斤，相对于国际长单价格为80 美元/公斤，价格十分合理。公司多晶硅供应合同完全消除了市场对其单晶硅业务的多晶硅原材料供应疑虑，进一步支持了公司未来三年复合增长40%的业绩预期，建议结合市场情况积极配置。	0.50	0.71	1.01	-----
光大证券	2008/05/27	买入	公司控股子公司与江苏顺大签订多晶硅长期合同，期限为10 年，公司此次采购计划昭显了公司未来的新的产能扩张计划。2008年预计公司将产出90吨左右直拉单晶硅，在270吨的现货保证下，2009年有望产出近300 吨左右直拉单晶硅。在直拉单晶硅产量大幅度增加200%以上、区熔硅业务保持35%左右的增速情况下，公司的赢利情况将在2009年有一个较大的飞跃。公司直拉单晶硅主要是面向太阳能以及半导体市场。由于未来太阳能行业的整体发展速度远高于半导体行业，公司目前也拥有制造高效率太阳能电池的技术基础，由此向太阳能领域正式扩张已是必然的选择，未来太阳能电池硅片的收入比例将持续提高。	0.57	0.92	1.00	28.00
申银万国	2008/05/28	买入	公司与江苏顺大签订多晶硅原材料长期采购合同，按照该合同，2009年270 吨的采购量远超之前对直拉单晶扩张速度的预期，以70%-80%的转换效率计算，可供应直拉单晶达190 吨以上。公司还曾公告，将与集团公司共同出资4.5 亿生产抛光片。该业务将提升现有产业链价值40%左右。两份公告显示公司的硅材料业务未来将快速发展。	0.54	0.74	0.95	17.74
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.537	0.79	0.987	22.87
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	28.66	19.48	15.59
风 险 提 示
（1）存在小非减持的风险；（2）多晶硅行业的波动、实际产能扩张的进度会影响到公司利润。