桂林旅游（000978）：增发项目将提升投资价值

　　诸多机构深度研究报告表明，在完成本次增发与资产收购之后，桂林旅游将基本上垄断桂林地区的旅游资源，形成绝对的垄断地位。与此同时，在本次增发项目收购完成之后，公司业绩在外生性增长的作用下将出现显著的提升，从而公司的估值水平降至行业内最低，而旅游业本身是通胀受益行业，也是泛周期行业。

　　因此，伴随着公司本次增发项目收购的完成，该公司再度具备了很好的投资价值，新的战略性投资机会也将因此形成。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
国都证券	2008/05/30	强烈推荐	桂林旅游的核心竞争力一方面在于管理层具备丰富的行业经验和良好的经营能力，另一方面在于对优质旅游资源的垄断力。目前桂林市政府对漓江游船总量实施控制，基本上不存在激烈竞争。而在“两江四湖”、“龙胜温泉”等优质旅游资源上则是由公司独家占有。	0.43	0.64	0.77	22.40
广发证券	2008/05/29	买入	国内旅游行业长期发展前景看好，公司主业受雪灾等短期灾害因素有限，增发完成后2年内，公司业绩面临一次较大的增幅，公司长期发展趋势看好，前期大跌使公司估值水平趋近历史低点，为长线投资者提供了较好的介入机会。	0.50	0.57	0.65	18.00
申银万国	2008/06/03	买入	预计未来桂林旅游业将继续保持快速增长势头，其中，2008 年接待游客量同比增长约15%左右，实现旅游收入增长近20%。未来漓江游览票价有望实现上调，并将助推公司业绩。	0.54	0.79	----	19.00-22.00
东方证券	2008/06/03	买入	此次募集资金收购项目是公司控制旅游资源战略实施以来获得的最重大进展，将形成对旅游资源的相对独占，促进旅游资源优势互补，长期竞争力获得明显提高。增发完成后公司成为真正意义上的桂林旅游业代言人，桂林地区最核心资源的注入，将明显增厚公司业绩。	0.40	0.54	0.75	-----
华泰证券	2008/06/03	推荐	公司增发募资用于整体收购桂林市“两江四湖”环城水系项目、收购桂林漓江大瀑布饭店100%权益，以及用于“银子岩”改扩建项目。有利于改善公司现有业务结构，强化公司在本地旅游市场上的垄断力量，并且能够有效的保证公司对客源的控制力。	0.51	0.65	0.87	-----
招商证券	2008/06/03	审慎推荐	预计公司增发价13-15 元，募集资金9 -10.5亿元。此次募集资金主要用于漓江大瀑布饭店及两江四湖项目，增发后业绩将显著增厚。	0.53	0.66	0.75	18.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.485	0.642	0.758	19.73
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	30.31	22.90	19.39
风 险 提 示
（1）“两江四湖”环城水系项目业绩释放的速度与幅度存在不确定性；（2）旅游行业受外部政治、经济、自然灾害影响较大。