金钼股份（601958）：价值低估的稳健性防御品种

　　金钼股份所处的行业比较冷门，但它是国内的行业龙头，国际上的行业巨头，并且处于原材料行业的上游，属于典型的资源类公司。公司业绩虽然没有高速增长的势头，但始终保持着优异且稳定的特点。这样的公司在行情出现低估之后，一般属于价值抗跌类型的稳健性防御品种，从而在弱市行情中更容易被机构投资者所注重，这也是该股当前被诸多机构所青睐的主要原因。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (元)
08年	09年	10年
中投证券	2008/06/12	强烈推荐	金钼股份是亚洲最大的钼业、全球最大的原生钼业公司，拥有从采矿、选矿、冶炼、深加工一体化的产业链。公司拥有全球最大的原生钼矿储量为78万吨的金堆城钼矿，近期还将收购储量为68.98万吨的汝阳东沟钼矿，使得公司有近100%的资源自给率。预计中国不锈钢和合金钢行业未来三年增长速度将保持在15%以上，对钼产品需求依然强劲，钼价仍将会维持高位运行。并且，由于中国出口关税的增加和出口配额的限制，使得国际钼价好于国内钼价，这对主要以国际市场为主的金钼股份比较有利。	1.25	1.31	1.36	26.00~28.00
中银国际	2008/06/12	优于大市	金钼股份为全球最大的专业钼生产商，拥有采矿、选矿、冶炼和深加工上下游一体化的完整产业链。拥有的金堆城钼矿是全球最大露天原生钼矿，储量占全球近 9%，同时也是全球最优质的钼矿资源之一。凭借得天独厚的矿产资源优势，金钼股份钼矿石自给率接近 100%，从而帮助公司充分享受高钼价带来的好处。公司计划收购拥有世界级特大型钼矿东沟钼矿的汝阳公司，储量较目前可增加近89%至150万吨，可占全球的近 17%。预计公司07-10年利润水平可保持相对稳定，这主要得益于钼产品价格的坚挺，公司高附加值产品的增加 也有助于平滑未来利润。	1.32	1.27	1.42	26.80
西南证券	2008/05/15	增持	公司钼金属年产量约占全球产量的7%，全国产量的35%，多年位居全球前十位，同时公司在资源储量上具有较大优势，未来合计拥有的钼金属储量达到148万吨。钼价波动根源于市场供需关系的变化，其需求主要来自于钢铁行业，其供应受到世界上主要钼生产商的产能及其所在国的相关政策的影响。公司近年来通过技术改造及新建项目，着力转向具有高附加值的钼化工及钼金属产品的生产，相应产能不断得到提高，在主营业务收入的比重也越来越大	1.49	1.50	----	34.27
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	1.353	1.36	1.39	29.36
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	13.39	13.32	13.03
风 险 提 示
（1）金属价格波动直接影响到净利润；（2）产品销售主要依靠出口，汇率变动影响公司利润变化；（3）出口关税增加影响到出口成本。