中天科技（600522）：成长性吸引机构关注

　　公司中期业绩同比大增，且对三季度也已作出了预增公告，显示公司已处于高速增长的轨道上。并且，电信重组、3G产业的推进、灾后重建对公司产品需求的增长，原材料价格趋降带来毛利率上升，海底光缆业务垄断优势形成的稳定性等都决定着该公司的成长才刚起步。这是该公司引起机构投资者高度关注的主要因素，也预示着其行情表现将有着较好的未来。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                      

                                                                         

                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
08年	09年	10年
广发证券	2008/07/24	买入	特种电缆超预期增长，主要原因是雪灾因素和出口因素使公司获得了较高毛利的订单。中天日立光缆和中天铝线的净利润规模上半年超过了去年全年。中天光纤业务受规模效应的影响，盈利能力也有所提升。	0.50	0.68	0.82	12.50
中信建投	2008/07/24	增持	电力产品销售大增但盈利能力仍然偏低，与灾后重建过程中相关产品销售具有一定公益性质有关，未来在特种导线销售带动下盈利能力有望逐步提高。	0.55	0.57	0.81	12.10
中金公司	2008/07/24	审慎推荐	射频电缆业务有望随着电信重组和3G发牌带来的电信投资恢复增长而实现规模增长。同时，毛利率可能作出结构调整，其中光纤缆和射频电缆的毛利率有所下调，主要受成本压力和运营商集采带来的价格压力影响。	0.50	0.67	----	-----
国泰君安	2008/07/24	增持	5月份中移动、中国电信、中国联通的招标中公司市场份额分别为15%、20%、30%，而去年同期为11%，未来2-3 年公司将在光纤领域进一步扩产。上半年OPGW、铝导线需求旺盛，下半年射频达产贡献盈利，将在未来2-3 年成为公司重要的利润来源。	0.52	0.68	0.83	15.70
渤海证券	2008/07/23	强烈推荐	上半年雪灾与地震灾害使灾区的通信和导电设施受到了严重损坏，拉动了对公司OPGW 光缆、导线、射频电缆及光缆的需求。公司是国内少数具有码头资源和深海海缆制造能力的公司之一。上半年公司海缆业务收入2.84 亿元，已超过该业务去年全年的收入。	0.50	0.80	----	16.00
申银万国	2008/07/23	增持	通信和电力业务毛利率提升显著，08年射频电缆、电力导线业务进入规模突破期，预计09年海缆业务将成为新的盈利长点。公司显著低于通信设备行业的平均水平。	0.54	0.70	0.85	-----
天相投顾	2008/07/24	增持	上半年三大业务均有增长，电力缆、房地产业务是收入增长的主要动力。持有武汉光迅18%股权将增加公司的潜在价值，公司收入增长有着良好预期。	0.47	0.61	0.74	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.512	0.673	0.81	14.08
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	20.74	15.78	13.11
风 险 提 示
（1）海底光电缆业务否能通过国际认证存在不确定性。（2）房地产业务具有不可持续性。