烽火通信（600498）：复合优势吸引机构目光

　　烽火通信作为通讯器件行业股，目前具备着电信行业重组加大行业投资规模、3G建设全面开始、通讯技术全面升级、原材料价格普遍下跌等诸多基本面优势，这种复合优势能支持该公司在今后几年经营业绩稳健增长。同时，在股市行情中通讯产业股也具有行业景气度重构、市场潜在热点转移、技术股可享受估值溢价等诸多题材，这些优势意味着作为行业内的优势企业，该股在平淡的行情氛围中能得到各类投资资本的更多关注。以上两大优势的结合，使得该公司已经开始被大多数机构投资者逐渐看好。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                    

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评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
中信证券	2008/08/06	增持	光传输市场的增长及FTTH市场的启动是公司业绩增长的推动因素。可继续看好这两大市场大幅增长给公司带来的机会。	0.37	0.49	0.64	12.80
中信建投	2008/08/06	增持	销售费用率降幅超毛利率，公司未来2-3年将在产品线拓展、外部FTTx 市场需求增长推动下步入业绩释放期。	0.46	0.51	0.64	13.20
广发证券	2008/08/06	持有	光纤光缆业务下半年将执行08年集采价格，预计收入增长将放缓，由于上半年业绩超预期，08年全年业绩仍增长20%左右。	0.41		0.66	13.00
长江证券	2008/08/06	推荐	虽然毛利率下降，但业绩增长无虞。作为中国仅次于华为的光系统领先企业，将长期受益于行业的成长趋势。	0.38	0.52	0.69	-----
国泰君安	2008/08/04	谨慎增持	运营商重组后需求扩张使短期内产品供不应求；若收购中国电信在长飞的股权则烽火系光纤市场份额60%，形成价格谈判能力。	0.40	0.48	0.61	13.68
中金公司	2008/08/06	中性	目前公司主要产品市场竞争压力仍偏大，同时电信重组以后，公司系统产品的市场份额能否保持仍有一定不确定性。	0.36	0.44	----	-----
齐鲁证券	2008/08/06	谨慎推荐	业绩大幅增长一方面得益于运营商整体的投资普遍提前，宽带市场规模启动，从而销售规模扩大；另一方面得益于人民币上半年升值的汇兑损益使得财务费用大幅减少。	0.42	0.58	0.66	13.60
天相投顾	2008/08/06	增持	运营商CAPEX向传输及数据设备倾斜，公司光通信、数据网络产品增长加快，同时光纤光缆需求稳定增长。另外公司持有广发基金16.7% 股权将增加其潜在价值。	0.37	0.45	0.51	-----
渤海证券	2008/08/06	推荐	FTTB+LAN、FTTB+DSL、FTTN+DSL等正在规模化应用，光通信设备与光纤的需求将保持较快增长，股权激励将推动公司提升业绩。	0.50	0.65	----	14.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.404	0.52	0.63	13.38
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.55	19.07	16.00
风 险 提 示
（1）来自广发基金的分红收益可能大幅下降；（2）汇兑收益可能因美元逐渐走强而减少；（3）行业集中采购比重提高，公司对产品的定价能力相对较弱。