中远航运（600428）：估值优势凸显安全特性

　　中远航运以其优异的业绩结合受大势拖累的低迷表现，其估值水平已经与全球航运股完全接轨。但受惠于中国经济高增长的良好成长性优势被抹杀，从而具备了明显的投资价值。在目前市态下，选择中远航运这样的股票，它或许是未来行情转折后走势不是最激越的，整体涨幅也可能不是最大的，但估值的优势却是目前最安全的，经过一定时间周期后的潜在收益也是相对可确定的，这也是该股目前受到诸多专业机构重点关注的主要因素。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (元)
08年	09年	10年
招商证券	2008/09/01	强烈推荐	营业利润快速度增长主要原因是：1、毛利率从去年同期26.8%提升到36.5%，其中折旧减少2500万元；2、财务费用比去年同期下降1000 万元；3、从中远财务公司获得的投资收入增长2200万元。净利润增长更快的原因主要是综合税率从去年同期27.9%下降到目前的14.3%，主业大幅增长仍是公司核心推动因素。	2.56	2.86	3.26	30.72
国泰君安	2008/09/01	增持	三季度受奥运会影响，预期业绩将受到一定影响，四季度全球散货市场运价将继续回升，公司下半年将维持良好经营态势。预期09-10年散货市场运价指数下跌可能性较大，09年公司可以通过注入木材船和沥青船的外延式扩张带来业绩增长，10 年公司的半潜船和多用途船的进入将带来业绩增长。	2.60	2.70	----	25.00
中金公司	2008/09/01	推荐	保守假设公司30%受干散货市场影响的部分每年运价下滑30%，此假设相当于BDI 09-10 年均值分别为4800 点和2800 点，公司另外70%不受市场影响部分的运价上升能够抵消此运价下滑，从而公司业绩的稳定增长来自于运力的扩张，2010-2011年为运力扩张最快的两年，因此目前预测08-10净利润增长分别为53%，5%和13%。	2.51	2.65	3.00	25.00
广发证券	2008/08/30	买入	公司新造的4艘2.7万吨级多用途船以及8艘2.8万吨级多用途船在2009年下半年后就能陆续投入运营。未来2 年，运力订单的交付完全能够弥补老旧船淘汰的影响，从而进一增强公司在机械设备运输领域的竞争能力。	2.69	2.47	2.23	26.90
天相投顾	2008/08/30	增持	我国机电产品出口增速持续保持在25%左右，受经济下滑影响相对不大。预期的09年中远集团资产注入以及后续新增运力投放都将为平抑公司未来业绩波动做出重要贡献，未来两年公司业绩下行风险相对较小。	2.66	2.69	2.91	-----
兴业证券	2008/09/01	推荐	公司在建两艘五万吨级半潜船与总运力约33万载重吨的12艘多用途船均在2011年前投入运营，将使公司半潜船的运力增至目前的三倍。特种运力的加快投入，将大幅提升公司未来的盈利能力。	2.80	3.20	3.40	24.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	2.637	2.707	2.96	26.32
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	7.26	7.07	6.47
风 险 提 示
（1）油价上涨与人民币汇率上涨超过预期；（2）全球经济尤其是非洲拉美等发展中国家经济增速出现较大放缓；（3）HANDY船运价下跌幅度超出预期；（4）新船交付进度低于预期。