中国国贸（600007）：稳健增长的商务地产龙头

　　房地产行业可细分为居住地产、商业地产和商务地产，相比前两者，商务地产的周期性、受行业调控的影响最弱，基本上属于泛周期行业。同时，商务地产一般处于商贸核心区，地产本身的区位价值有着无可比拟的优势，结合商务经营的盈利模式，一般能给予相比其他地产行业更高的估值标准。在国内商务地产公司中，中国国贸的商务性特征是最明显的，物业区位和经营相对垄断性的优势也是十分明显的，属于商务地产的龙头股之一，以其相对出色与十分稳健的业绩成长性，历来被机构投资者所重视。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                     

                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (元)
08年	09年	10年
中银国际	2008/09/01	优大于市	上半年中国国贸写字楼、商城及公寓的出租率分别由07年的96.9%、99.8%和81.%提高到了97.3%、100%和83.9%，对应的月租金也由07 年的354元、661元和210元分别上涨到了370元、705元和215元。国贸三期A 阶段商场部分的招商工作正按计划进行，并且得到了市场的积极回应。	0.37	0.46	0.66	11.40
中金公司	2008/09/01	中性	公司资产负债率46.9%，比07年底小幅上升3.2个百分点；净负债率69.5%，比07年底上升12个百分点；银行贷款占总负债比例为57.8%，上升6个百分点。借款的增加主要为国贸三期建设需求，产生的财务费用绝大部分将会资本化。公司账面现金2.5亿，资金情况尚可。随着国贸三期建成并陆续投入使用，公司租金收入将在09 年出现较大幅度的提升。	0.31	0.46	----	------
广发证券	2008/08/30	买入	奥运会的举办使得三期A工程施工进度受阻，预计三期A阶段的商城和宴会厅会推迟到年底或明年初开业；同时展厅在奥运期间的业绩将大幅下滑。另一方面，国贸公寓和商城却受益于奥运。公司一直实行高比例的现金分红政策，近七年的平均现金分红率达55.6%，远高于其他优秀同行。高比例现金分红政策不仅体现了公司业绩的优良和稳定，更体现出公司是一个负责任的上市公司。	0.36	0.56	0.74	13.82
天相投顾	2008/09/01	增持	公司商务地产出租的主营业务受宏观调控影响小，同时公司主要物业定位高端，客户多为跨国企业等，宏观经济周期波动的风险对公司影响相对较小。公司现有可出租物业一、二期共约19万㎡，目前在建三期A阶段可出租面积合计约24万㎡，超过一、二期总和，08、09年陆续投入运营后公司业绩有望得到较大提升。另外，三期B阶段共计约24万㎡的高档物业预计在2009年开工建设，建成后将进一步提升公司的成长能力。	0.37	0.56	----	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.353	0.51	0.70	12.61
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	21.10	14.61	10.64
风 险 提 示
（1）主要风险为工程的竣工风险和招商风险。（2）CBD区域物业供应量增加导致的竞争风险。