万科A（000002）：房地产行业中的首选

　　继股市之后，房地产行业也已进入低迷状态，由于房地产行业景气与否对整个国民经济十分重要，因而，之前一直高度紧缩的行业调控已经开始明显松动，后期持续降息与降税已经是个大趋势，这对整个房地产行业具有很好的“托底”作用。与此同时，经过之前的调整，行业内优劣分化的局面已成定局，作为行业龙头，万科的市场占有率有了显著提升，尤其是现金流优势十分突出，这必然将进一步巩固其龙头地位。完全可以这样认为，万科是房地产行业调控与调整中最大的赢家。正因如此，在整个行业萧条中，万科前3个季度的销售仍取得了不俗的业绩。在整个房地产行情有望受政策拉动而逐步复苏之时，行业中的首选理当是万科。更重要的是，不论整个行业发展趋势如何，万科目前的估值水平已经具备了足够的安全边际。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         金额中的比重及07 年前三季度净利润率计算，08 年前三季度归属于母公司所有者的净利润为24.1 亿元，同比增长25.73%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
东方证券	2008/10/08	买入	公司08年1～9月的销售均价为8849 元，较07 年同期的8090 元高9.38％，也高于万科07年全年的销售均价8532 元。截至08 年9 月，公司已销售可结算金额达到594 亿元，到达07年全年结算金额的169％。公司中报时调整08 年的计划竣工面积为586 万平米，目前公司今年可结算的已销售面积达到了693 万平米，超出计划竣工面积107万平米。公司9月份新增项目5个，合计新增权益建筑面积土地储备90.37万平米，支付地价22.56 亿元。	0.58	0.72	----	10.00
海通证券	2008/10/08	增持	宏观调控政策有望继续放松，特别是再次降息的概率大幅提高，为保持经济的稳定增长，提振内需和增加政府支出势在必行；而房地产行业不仅为内需的重要部分，也是地方政府财政收入的主要来源。到2008年年末，预期公司将实现的可结算收入应该在651.9 亿元至701.9 亿元之间；考虑到项目结算收入必须在竣工交房后进行，其中的部分收入将在2009年结算，这一数据不仅完全决定了2008年的业绩，也将成为2009年业绩的重要来源。	0.56	0.68	0.84	8.40
平安证券	2008/10/08	强烈推荐	公司计划2008年获取土地储备1000万平米，目前前3季度公司共获取项目29个，规划建筑面积673.2万平米，较2007年获取54个项目、规划建筑面积1142万平方米有明显减少。二三线城市的比重今年明显加大。由于房地产市场销售的持续低迷、房价调整导致公司盈利水平有所降低。	0.58	0.70	----	-----
渤海证券	2008/10/08	强烈推荐	从上一年预售未结算状况和当年前9月的销售状况来看，08 年已售未结算面积、均价和金额，分别同比增长23.96%，3.31%和28.06%。若按照07 年1-9 月结算金额在已售未结算	0.57	0.67	----	11.40
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.573	0.693	0.84	9.93
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	10.31	8.53	7.04
风 险 提 示
（1）万科新获土地储备的进度仍然没有加快，显示公司对土地市场仍旧谨慎的判断；（2）公司品牌美誉度有所降低，管理半径过大，未来提升空间有限；（3）行业景气度处于低迷状态，景气度回温还有待时日。