ST三安（600703）：在行业景气中不断成长

　　ST三安为今年新重组的公司，主营业务已变更为LED光源开发与制造业，是我国新兴的且极具市场潜力的成长性行业，且公司为行业内龙头企业，在获得国家认可与重点支持下，公司在业内具有很强的竞争力。为此，诸多机构深度研究后认为，该公司将在市场扩张与产能扩张，以及技术升级中获得显著的成长性。目前价值被严重低估，具备了良好的投资价值。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                         

                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
申银万国	2008/10/21	增持	行业供需关系在09 年有望得到改善。主要是因为NB 厂（如DELL）及面板厂推进LED 背光源的速度在加快。DELL 四季度将推出1100 美金左右的LED NB，这将使得LED NB 不再是2、3 万元的高端宠儿。我们预计08 及09 年LED 的产能扩张速度为52%和28%，而需求量（非产值）的增速为42%和37%，供需关系在09 年下半年有望得到缓和。	0.39	0.56	0.72	-----
东方证券	2008/10/21	增持	ST 三安是中国大陆LED行业的龙头企业，特别是在上游的外延片制造领域占据绝对优势地位。公司的技术中心被国家认定为企业技术中心，同时收到财政部400 万元的无偿财政资助，资助的项目为液晶显示屏背光源用超高亮半导体红色LED 芯片的研发和制造。技术中心获得认定和收到财政部的专项补贴，显示公司的技术实力在国内处于领先地位，是国家发展LED 战略的重要支撑点。	0.29	0.54	0.63	8.12
中投证券	2008/10/21	强烈推荐	公司业绩超出公司股改承诺时每季度最少800 万的承诺。目前已经上市的LED 笔记本电脑有HP、DELL、Asus 各两种机型，Fujitsu 的三种机型，Lenovo 和Acer 各一款机型，预计2009 年渗透率将达到30%，DELL 司宣布2010年全部电脑采用LED 背光源，公司的价值被严重低估。	0.41	0.58	0.77	13.00 ~14.50
海通证券	2008/10/08	买入	国内LED 下游市场短期受外围市场影响比较小：国内市场以非IT应用为主导，以内需为主，虽然受到一些外围市场的影响和冲击，但下游封装持续向国内产业转移，所以所受影响较小。三安的直接出口比例小于10%。公司最近在LED 关键技术研发上得到国家部委不菲资金支持，作为一家民营企业，这也是公司竞争力得到国家权威部门认可的重要标志。	0.25	0.65	1.07	15.00
国都证券	2008/10/09	推荐	LED相比其他的照明工具，最主要的优点就是功率较低（是白炽灯的1/8，荧光灯的1/3左右），理论发光效率高，同时体积小，不易损坏。目前主要应用于背光源和景观照明，未来可能大规模用于室内照明。我国近年的LED销售增长速度保持在30%以上，若LED进入室内照明市场，则可能出现爆发式的增长。	0.32	0.45	0.56	8.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.332	0.556	0.75	11.22
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	20.78	12.41	9.20
风 险 提 示
（1）LED产业竞争过于激烈可能而导致产能过剩；（2）背光源市场应用中的成本较高。