合肥三洋（600983）：在行业中竞争中保持成长性

　　合肥三洋是行业内的后来者，正是这一点使其以市场份额后来居上的增长、产品覆盖面的增加足以能抵御本次受经济滑坡影响而导致需求降低的风险，并且农村市场的拓展、原材料成本的降低将赋予其更好的增长性。在目前大件消费品的制造类公司中，类似合肥三洋这样仍能保持显著增长趋势的公司并不多，因此，该公司已经得到诸多机构投资者的重点关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                 

                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
08年	09年	10年
中信证券	2008/11/03	增持	公司加大在三四级市场的渠道覆盖，前三季度波轮洗衣机增长62%，一二级市场滚筒洗衣机销售爆发性增长了338%。公司推出了低价位滚筒洗衣机，提升产品性价比，有望成为明年增长的主力。渠道下沉有助于公司抓住农村市场的机会。微波炉业务前三季度也增长了51%，“家电下乡”将惠及公司产品。	0.35	0.44	0.54	6.30
中投证券	2008/10/31	推荐	公司在稳住一二级市场，加大了三四级市场的推广销售；产品线上除了传统的高端产品，也增加了中低端产品，产品线更加丰富，对合作商家的吸引力更强；渠道上公司一方面做好大卖场，同时也积极尝试百货、自营店等多种渠道，目前公司销售势头非常好，并没有太受行业不利形势的影响，靠抢占市场份额就足以消化行业的不利局面。销售爆发增长之际，公司的新厂区上半年顺利完工，农村洗衣机市场为公司乘势而上提供了机会，可以预期公司高速增长能够持续较长的时间。	0.37	0.54	0.69	7.40
国泰君安	2008/11/03	谨慎增持	公司三季度业绩增长加速，淡季业绩非常亮眼。单季实现收入2.73 亿元，净利润1994 万元，同比分别增长119.5%与123.8%。经营现金流入2.91亿元，超过单季收入；经营现金净流入1469万元。收入大幅增长得益于产品的“五箭齐发”和产品档次覆盖面的增加。其中，滚筒洗衣机收入1.48 亿，波轮洗衣机收入5.37 亿，分别同比增长337.76%和61.70%。收入增长与产品的低端化覆盖、三四级市场的开拓、定价模式等因素有关。	0.36	0.51	0.71	7.50
兴业证券	2008/10/31	——	未来三年是公司业务大发展的关键时期，公司基本具备了快速扩张的主观和客观条件，有望在未来三年迅速做大，能否做强仍有待观察。就做大而言，依托公司大举进军国内三四级市场以及海外OEM订单放量，公司营业收入有望从07年的6.3亿爆炸性增长到2010 年的30亿以上，这将是公司最大的投资亮点；就做强角度来看，不确定性主要来自于两方面，一是公司的盈利能力恐难以保持同步，二是公司的战略模式和发展路径成型还有待时间考验。	0.33	0.44	0.59	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.353	0.483	0.633	7.07
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	13.68	10.02	7.65
风 险 提 示
（1）存货控制不力、原材料价格波动带来的风险；（2）能否获得高新技术企业所得税优惠仍需等待。