深圳机场（000089）：具有稳定增长潜力的防御性资产

　　在目前市场估值体系紊乱，对行业与公司赢利预期模糊的市况下，要搜寻既有稳定增长预期，且还属于防御性资产，行业属性与行情价格都具有良好防御优势的公司难度是比较大的。但市场中必然存在这样的公司，通过机构深度研究表明，得益于广告外包业务的稳定增长，深圳机场明年的业绩具有翻番的潜能，而机场类公司本身就属于典型的防御性资产。同时，相关收购股权的预期构成了该股行情的潜在催化剂，显示该股在具备防御功能的基础上具备了运行溢价行情的潜力。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
08年	09年	10年
中信证券	2008/11/11	买入	10月份公司飞机起降、旅客吞吐量、货邮吞吐量环比增长6.0%、11.4%、-11.3%，1-10累计三项指标同比分别增长3.4%、3.5%、0.6%。6月底公司分别签署户外和室内广告业务外包协议，实现广告业务整体外包，根据协议，2008-2011年户外广告较2007年增长13%、28%、59%、89%，室内广告同比分别增长30%、50%、90%、60%，年均增长高大56%。公司产能趋于饱和，业务量增长温和，价格具备较强的刚性，非航业务增长迅速，在整体经济下滑的背景下，能够维持业绩的稳定增长。公司管理能力业内领先，是典型的防御性品种。考虑相关收购公司股权的预期，应给予10%的估值溢价。	0.38	0.43	8.30
渤海证券	2008/11/13	买入	10 月份公司实现旅客吞吐量188.28 万人次，货邮吞吐量4.83 万吨，航空器起降架次1.60 万架次，分别同比增长2.3、-4.3%和3.9%，增速环比继续回升，其中旅客吞吐量增速和货邮吞吐量增速分别回升1.4 和3.2 个百分点，航空器起降架次仅同比回升0.6 个百分点。目前公司产能基本饱和，2010 年以前公司货运业务增长亦有限。业绩增长主要来自非航业务，08 年，公司开始对广告业务实行特许经营，并分别通过持股95%的机场广告公司就户内、户外广告签订了为期3 年的合约，广告费合计7.3 亿元，公司2008-2011 年广告收入分别同比增长23%、33%、56%和26%。公司目前估值偏低。	0.41	0.47	7.80~8.40
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.205	0.395	0.45	8.20
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	28.29	14.68	12.89
风 险 提 示
（1）经济不景气可能导致业务增长敌于预期；（2）广告、商业租赁招标结果或履约情况低于预期；（3）突发性事件的风险。