泸州老窖（000568）：有望逆势增长的消费类公司

　　在经济下滑，需求降低的形势下，泸州老窖的管理层却作出了逆势涨价的经营举措。一方面，显示公司管理层对产品的信心；另一方面，“以价补量”促进增长意图非常明显。同时，公司经营层给泸州老窖特曲制定了合适的出厂价格，这决定了未来几年内，该项主导产品的价格基本上处于不断上调的轨道中，只要销售不出现滑坡，基本上能保证公司业绩的稳定增长。同时，与证券市场密切相关的华西证券股权投资收益的贡献度目前正处于较差状态，未来应该有逐渐转好的表现。

　　因此，主业与副业相结合表明公司未来的增长仍是稳定且可持续的。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
08年	09年	10年
中信证券	2008/11/24	买入	公司对中价位产品提价20-22%，本次提价是实现公司对泸州老窖特曲产品定位的行动之一。在国窖1573进入稳定增长阶段后，泸州老窖特曲实现出厂价200元/瓶和销量2万吨是公司的既定目标。在目前经济形势下提高产品价格，主要目的是增加一部分对经销商的返利，增加产品销售的推力，实现品牌价值和销量同步增长。在旺季来临之前，特别是经济增速下滑的情况下提价，短期内会对公司销售造成一定影响，可能会影响到2009年一季度的业绩。对明年全年的影响还需要进一步观察。	1.12	1.47	1.90	27.00
国泰君安	2008/11/25	增持	泸州老窖特曲提价20 元，执行长期提价策略，向200 元目标又迈进一步。从策略角度看，目前老窖特曲价格的回归非常有利于公司长期发展。根据提价对销量增长的影响分析，提价传导存在困难，价格弹性仍小于1，预计2009年产品收入略有上升。公司未来5年的规划目标是市场占有率提高到10%以上，收入每年增长20%以上。公司股权激励年底有望完成，富有激情的管理层+正确的产品策略+良好的渠道控制能力，是继续看好公司的主要理由。	1.05	1.25	----	25.00
渤海证券	2008/11/06	买入	宏观经济不景气对消费的传导一般有半年到一年左右的滞后期，白酒属于消费类产品也不例外；由于主销区不同、品牌所处成长阶段不同以及各公司营销能力的差异，不同品牌受宏观经济下行影响程度不同，公司产品主销区受经济下滑负面作用较小。在宏观经济增长放缓、需求疲软的情况下，高档白酒的提价幅度会放缓，销售量的增长难度也增加；公司将做好以下三个方面以厚积薄发：一是，发展中低档酒，争取发展处覆盖全国的中低品牌；二是，加大对基酒的储存；三是对人力资源以及营销资源进行整合。	1.02	1.30	1.51	27.50
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	1.063	1.34	1.705	26.50
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	18.52	14.70	11.55
风 险 提 示
（1）受经济下滑影响，中高档白酒消费能力下降；（2）华西证券业绩下滑给公司带来业绩下降的压力。