文化传媒行业是泛周期行业，也是目前政策支持的重点产业，其中有线网络行业经过前几年的投入与铺垫后，已经开始逐渐进入收获周期，相关公司也因此开始进入成长的黄金周期，从而在当前其它周期行情景气度普遍回落的时候被投资者格外看好。

　　广电网络目前股价已经低于重置价值，且也是同类中估值最低廉、成长性最可靠的公司之一，具有防御加增长的双重优势，更是得到机构投资者的重点关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                             

                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (元)
08年	09年	10年
银河证券	2008/12/15	推荐	根据最新出台的国务院文件, 为了支持文化体制改革和有线网络数字电视转换, 原先享受免税政策的企业在获得国家文化体制改革办批复后有望继续获得减免5年所得税的优惠政策。预计公司09年将获得08年的所得税返还925万元。在目前的改造成本下, 按照广电网络11元/户的增量收费， 每年数字电视改造后新增收入131元/户，只要控制双 向化改造的进度, 提价收入完全可以弥补数字化改造的成本, 而且还会提高公司的毛利率水平。从行业来看, 有线网络公司抗周期、抗通缩, 2009年的业绩依然能够保持增长。	0.17	0.38	0.44	10.00
申银万国	2008/12/14	买入	保守预测公司09年EPS比08年增长58%，公司09年实际业绩可能远高于此，业绩改善空间主要来自：所得税减免增厚EPS 0.054 元；降息降低公司财务费用，增厚09 年EPS 20%；Boss计费系统完成降低人工收取收视维护费成本，有望增厚EPS 0.01 元；机顶盒价格大幅下降降低折旧摊销成本。增厚09 年EPS 0.01元，实际上，机顶盒成本降幅程度可能还超出预期，对业绩增厚程度可能更多。公司09 年EV/EBITDA 7倍，是有线行业中最低的。	0.19	0.30	0.44	-----
国信证券	2008/12/15	谨慎推荐	广告业务清算使每股价值减少1.06%，但这是一次性的损失。已设立节目运营公司推动业务发展，将代理全省模拟、数字电视节目的引进和销售等。广电网络收购广电股份的资产，其中 95%以上不需办理过户的资产已经转移到了上市公司中。目前广电网络2008-2010年EV/EBITDA 分别为9.4 倍、8.3 倍和7.1 倍，估值已经相当便宜，从每户市值看，公司每户市值仅600元，已经低于一级市场对有线网络资产的收购价格。	0.21	0.35	0.38	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.19	0.343	0.42	10.00
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	39.32	21.78	17.79
风 险 提 示
（1）终止与陕西电视台广告协议会一次性降低2008年净利润；（2）电视增值业务进展仍比较缓慢。