福耀玻璃是典型的“中国制造”型公司，受全球金融危机的影响不可避免，去年下半年以来该公司在连续关闭非盈利生产线，同时公司也预告年报将进行资产减值计提。显然，该公司将准备卸下包袱，以图轻装发展。“甩包袱”虽然一次性降低了公司2008年的业绩水平，但在经济景气度即将达到谷底的时候甩包袱无疑是个“双触底”，在经济景气恢复后，这样的公司无疑会“起得更早，走得更快”。该公司“甩包袱”导致的业绩下降，触发了追加送股的条件；同时，“甩包袱”导致的股价过度下跌，也为投资者提供了一次“买底”的良机。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                        值准备金额在1~1.2亿元人民币之间。公司连续关停建筑级浮法玻璃生产线的决策是看淡国内房地产市场前景；出于稳定盈利的考虑，保证汽车玻璃业务的盈利不受到建筑玻璃业务拖累，以及保持未来现金流的健康。金融危机将推动跨国公司零部件采购向全球低成本优质供应商的转移，市场份额的提高是公司09年出口业务仍可实现逆市增长的基础，丰田等公司新增订单的增长，公司汽车玻璃销售仍将有超越行业的表现。对公司海外出口业务前景的过度悲观已经导致公司股价明显低估。                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (元)
08年	09年	10年
兴业证券	2008/12/31	推荐	公司计划是如果恢复生产则对生产线进行全面更新升级，因此基本做出了全额计提减值准备；停产的海南两条浮法玻璃生产线总投资约6 亿元，从本次计提减值准备的金额来看，应该是主要计提窑炉耐火砖部分的减值准备，这样如果浮法玻璃市场有所回暖，公司再投入1 亿元左右进行冷修，耗时一个季度左右就基本可以恢复生产。公司于08年停产大幅计提减值将减轻09 年的经营压力，增强公司长期竞争力。以目前情况来看，公司执行追加送股承诺已基本确定。	0.18	0.33	0.39	-----
申银万国	2008/12/31	增持	由于地产需求的低迷及建筑级浮法玻璃产能的过剩，导致建筑级浮法玻璃价格下降，估计公司停掉的建筑级浮法生产线约40条左右。考虑到政府对汽车需求刺激政策的出台，预计09年国内汽车销量能与08年持平或略有增长，公司国内汽车玻璃收入仍能实现高于国内汽车行业销量的增速，预计汽车玻璃主业09 年将实现平稳增长。根据公司股改承诺，若公司06、07、08年任一年中净利润同比下滑则将追送股份，大股东以每10股送1股的对价向流通股东送股，目前股价实际只相当于4元左右。	0.21	0.36	0.42	-----
联合证券	2008/12/30	增持	公司对海南两条日溶化量为600 吨的浮法玻璃生产线进行放水停产，预计计提的资产减	0.18	0.45	----	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.19	0.38	0.405	------
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	23.63	11.82	11.09
风 险 提 示
（1）由于建筑浮法级生产线的停产减量，09年销售收入将下降；（2）金融危机的影响使得海外市场仍存在不确定因素；