从机构的深度研究报告来看，钢铁行业正在处于景气度探底并接近低谷与寻求拐点的时候，进入一季度随着去年四季度的亏损与存货计提得到消化，行业拐点即可形成。对股市投资来说，行业景气低拐点的时候，往往是最有投资价值的时候。

　　在同行业中，武钢股份由于具有在取向硅钢领域中的垄断优势，相对其他公司更具竞争优势和价值优势，从而在行业选择中被机构投资者列为配置首选，未来估值标准随行业景气度的回升是该股涨升的驱动力。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                 取向硅钢即便价格继续下滑，依然是明显高于普通钢铁的高盈利品种，从PE 的角度上来说，武钢也并不存在劣势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
中投证券	2008/01/08	强烈推荐	公司公布了2月份价格政策，较１月份价格普钢产品有不同程度的上调，硅钢价格维持不变。公司普钢产品价格得到修正，压力得到缓解，未来价格继续上调取决于市场需求的变化。上半年市场价格波动区间不会太大，未来铁矿石长协价谈判价格的下降将会打压钢材价格持续上升空间。下半年需求回升，对普钢价格回升具有拉动作用。公司拳头产品硅钢价格面临市场压力减小，未来大幅下跌可能性不大，下游变压器需求增长未来两年非常确定，年均增长率达到25%。钢铁产业振兴计划即将出炉，硅钢作为高附加值产品或将从中受益。	0.90	0.79	1.04	8.38~9.48
国信证券	2008/01/07	谨慎推荐	钢材价格已经持续反弹，武钢顺势上调有助于缓解公司普碳钢经营压力。09-10年是国家电网建设的高速发展期，对取向硅钢产生强劲的需求。目前全球能够生产取向硅钢的企业才10家左右，而国内能够量产的只有武钢，市场占有率接近50%。宝钢08、09 年取向硅钢产量乐观估计只有1.5、7万吨左右，在短期内难以改变武钢对取向硅钢的垄断地位。	1.02	0.80	----	-----
中金公司	2008/01/07	审慎推荐	公司的库存正在逐步下降，钢铁行业盈利最差的时刻正在过去，由于价格暴跌和计提存货减值损失，大型钢厂在08年4季度出现严重亏损，09年1月份钢铁企业将盈亏平衡，2月份可能小幅盈利；在二季度，大中型钢厂的盈利将恢复，实现盈利。随着盈利的逐步恢复，将存在阶段性的投资机会。	0.83	0.47	0.50	-----
长江证券	2008/01/07	谨慎推荐	武钢大幅上调2月份出厂价格背后的实质原因依然是钢材市场价格的大幅上涨，从11月中旬以来，大部分钢材品种已经从底部反弹了20%的水平，而且这种反弹的趋势还在持续。	0.69	0.47	0.64	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.86	0.633	0.727	8.93
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	6.81	9.26	8.06
风 险 提 示
（1）宝钢成功生产出取向硅钢、危机导致进口价格下滑，市场竞争加剧；（2）四季度的亏损幅度可能超出预期。