开创国际（600097）：未来成长性值得期待

　　开创国际（原华立科技）在去年末完成资产置换，本周五刚刚更名完毕，公司主营业务也从原来的电力自动化变更为远洋渔业捕捞，公司拥有我国规模最大，捕鱼船只类型最齐全的远洋捕捞船队，根据公司已经的公告，在资产置换后2008年业绩将同比增长25倍以上，一举进入绩优行业龙头股行列。由于公司所在的行业属性，公司将受到中央“一号文件”关于农林牧渔业扶持政策的重点支持，这保障了公司未来业绩增长的稳定性与成长性。因此，该股已经受到诸多机构的重点关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                         油价持续疲软、鱼价相对稳定有利于公司毛利率上升；公司08年每股公积金和未分配利润有4.57 元，预期有较好的分红方案，公司现时估值并不算高，是农林牧渔行业内安全配置股票之一。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                         此次资产置换，开创国际对08、09年业绩做出了承诺，预计将实现净利润分别为15090.58、18619.37万元，折算EPS分别为0.74、0.92元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
中投证券	2008/02/04	推荐	远洋渔业在农林牧渔行业中最受政府政策支持。首先是“三减免”：捕捞运回的鱼免关税、免增值税、免所得税；其次是“四补贴”：捕捞船只燃油补贴（从08年下半年开始，柴油涨价补贴由原来涨价的50%变为涨价的100%发放，09、10年只要柴油价高于每吨3870元继续发放补贴），购买进口船只或自建船只财政补贴（为发生金额的20%），购买、改造大型远洋渔船财政贴息（贷款利率给予50%贴息），对外合作项目补贴。按照以上补贴政策，重新计算公司未来两年的资本开支，未来两年公司购买渔船的资本开支将由原来20亿元减少为13亿元。	0.82	0.92	1.17	16.50
兴业证券	2008/02/05	推荐	公司拥有国内最大一支远洋捕捞船队，捕捞许可证和所捕鱼种资源丰富决定了公司未来的成长。公司的核心竞争优势是：（1）资源稀缺性的捕捞许可证，目前公司竹荚鱼和金枪鱼捕捞船队所有船只都具有所在渔区的船只许可证，许可证制度为新进入者设置了进入壁垒；（2）渔业资源丰富。公司作业的两大渔区资源丰富，公司两大产品是世界渔业资源中少数几种处于适度和完全开发的品种。大洋性渔业决定公司走一条不同的路，也是公司优于国内同类企业的主要原因。	0.75	0.95	1.12	17.50
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.785	0.935	1.145	17.00
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	18.22	15.29	12.49
风 险 提 示
（1）大型拖网船资金可能需要通过证券市场融资；（2）鱼价波动、油价波动、购船计划变化等都会给公司业绩带来影响。