康美药业（600518）：外生性增长带来良性循环

　　康美药业是目前通过同业内资产收购的外生手段促使业绩稳步增长的典型。与其他公司非同类资产注入与并购不同，康美药业的资产收购始终围绕主业进行，这样在外生性增长促使业绩提高之余，也进一步巩固了主业的内生性增长潜力，形成良性循环，并进一步确立了行业的龙头地位。作为不受经济滑坡影响的非周期性小行业龙头公司，公司的经营策略已经得到诸多机构投资者的高度认同。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                     

                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
08年	09年	10年
中信证券	2008/02/09	买入	公司是唯一上市的中药饮片企业，业绩增长较快。中药饮片行业规模小，成长快，集中度正在提高，公司是行业内的龙头，竞争优势明显。表现在：规模业内第一，品种规模齐全，参与制定行业标准，占领质量制高点，独特创新的服务模式，市场需求旺盛。公司持续融资，新项目不断投入运行，给公司业绩带来快速增长。2003-2007年中药饮片收入与毛利率的CAGR分别达到52%和66%，显示公司经营质量较好。	0.35	0.50	0.65	15.00
招商证券	2008/02/12	强烈推荐	收购北京隆盛堂中药饮片公司，从广东省区域品牌向全国品牌跨越迈出坚实的一步，公司正在一步一脚印地实施其全国品牌战略、资源战略和产业链一体化战略。根据公司保守测算，隆盛堂2009年和2010年将分别贡献中药饮片销售收入4000万元和6500万元。从2009年起，康美将正式进军北京市场。公司2008年中药饮片同比增长了74%，实现销售收入6.1 亿元。考虑09 年起新增北京和广西市场，并新增“新开河人参”业务，康美饮片2009年和2010年将达到10亿元和15 亿元，贡献净利润2.9 亿元和4.4 亿元。	0.33	0.55	0.81	16.00
中原证券	2008/02/12	买入	为配合公司战略布局的实施，公司似追加投资不超过5500万元做大隆盛堂公司。公司预计2009年可增加销售收入4000万元左右；2010年可增加销售收入6500万元，了；利润总额预计为1288万元。公司在去年10月份已经收购了东北的新开河公司，通过不断的收购，有望落实公司打造和延伸企业产业链条的目标，使公司成为全国性的中药饮片公司。外延式增长将成为近几天公司发展的主要方向，并通过在全国范围内的收购与资产整合进一步增厚公司业绩。公司现金丰厚，为进一步资产收购提供了保证。	0.35	0.47	0.65	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.343	0.507	0.703	15.50
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	33.73	22.82	16.46
风 险 提 示
（1）资金链断裂的风险；（2）项目实施慢于预期的风险；（3）进入不熟悉的业务领域。